-
Due to his string of scandals, Adam Giambrone has dropped out.
I wont analyze this, the media will be doing enough of that. So how will this effect the race.
Well right now, with Adam out and Minnan-Wong/Ford yet to declare, we only have three "real candidates". And this is where I see them standing at this moment.
Smitherman - 42%
Rossi - 27%
Pantalone - 27%
Sorry, no extra data today!
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Monday, February 8, 2010
Latest Projection
-
In short, we are looking at 2006 all over again, with a few more NDP seats at the expense of the Bloc.
The Liberal's momentum has slowed but they still have a slight edge here. Unless they can pull out a wider lead in Ontario, they will start to waste votes in Quebec, and even a tie in the national popular vote will lead to a Tory government.
Sorry, no extra data today!
In short, we are looking at 2006 all over again, with a few more NDP seats at the expense of the Bloc.
The Liberal's momentum has slowed but they still have a slight edge here. Unless they can pull out a wider lead in Ontario, they will start to waste votes in Quebec, and even a tie in the national popular vote will lead to a Tory government.
Sorry, no extra data today!
TTC on strike - of sorts
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There are reports this morning that the TTC Union has decided to "work to rule" and purposefully delay service in response to customers asking them to do their jobs properly. Clearly the message from the Union, and its Drivers to Customers is "Either let us treat you badly, or we won't drive you at all"
UPDATE
City TV ran into the head of the TTC Union - Bob Kinnear - who states that the Union is not behind this. Okay, fair enough. I remember him pleading with employees during the last wildcat strike. I apologize to the ATU, the reality is this is not from them, it is from the operators who are unwilling to show passengers respect, even when asked to. When even the Union can't control it's workers, you know things are bad.
Sorry, no extra data today!
There are reports this morning that the TTC Union has decided to "work to rule" and purposefully delay service in response to customers asking them to do their jobs properly. Clearly the message from the Union, and its Drivers to Customers is "Either let us treat you badly, or we won't drive you at all"
UPDATE
City TV ran into the head of the TTC Union - Bob Kinnear - who states that the Union is not behind this. Okay, fair enough. I remember him pleading with employees during the last wildcat strike. I apologize to the ATU, the reality is this is not from them, it is from the operators who are unwilling to show passengers respect, even when asked to. When even the Union can't control it's workers, you know things are bad.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Friday, February 5, 2010
Question Period, in America?
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It has come to my attention that there is a movement afoot to get Question Period, or Question Time in the United States. The movement, called Demand Question Time is pushing for the President, and possibly his cabinet, to face legislators questions.
I had this idea myself quite a while ago. My idea was that every second Tuesday of the month, the President would sit down with Congress and answer questions. Like here in Canada, each member would get a supplementary question, so that they may ask their primary question, and one follow up. This would allow them to counter any evasive answers. There would, like here, be time limits on Questions and Answers to ensure that one side or the other does not ramble on to run out the clock.
My idea would see a 90 minute Question Period. The first two questions would go to the Majority Leader in the Senate, followed by the Minority Leader in the senate. The next two, to the Majority Leader of the house, and then the Minority leader of the house. The following questions would keep this pattern. Maj-Sen, Min-Sen, Maj-Hou, Min-Hou. This would split the questions between the two chambers, and between the two parties. There have been suggestions to have the questioners randomly picked, I'd not be opposed to this so long as the leaders get the first round of questions. Another way to counter having trained seals ask questions is to limit the number of questions a single member can ask to one (and its follow up) every 3 months or so.
Questions should be limited to 45 seconds, and answers to 2 minutes. IIRC this is what they do here in Canada. In reality, the entire time is not always used. Normally you want 'bad' questions done away with as soon as possible, and normally a 'good' question is asked very quickly. An simplistic answer is "Why do you suck as president?" being followed by "I don't". Short questions and answers also have a much better chance of making it onto the repeating news cycle, so a short quick jab followed by a short effective defense helps both sides 'win'. Normally an entire question and it's supplementary will be done in 3 minutes. At least that is how things work here. This would allow for a full cycle of 12 minutes, allowing 7 questions from each half of each house in each session. This may not sound like much, and it is not, but the point of modern question period is less getting real answers, and more of drawing the pubilc's attention to problems so that they demand real answers.
Americans curious about how we do Question Period need only to check You Tube for "Question Period Canada". I personally recommend the "Big Gas" clip :)
Sorry, no extra data today!
It has come to my attention that there is a movement afoot to get Question Period, or Question Time in the United States. The movement, called Demand Question Time is pushing for the President, and possibly his cabinet, to face legislators questions.
I had this idea myself quite a while ago. My idea was that every second Tuesday of the month, the President would sit down with Congress and answer questions. Like here in Canada, each member would get a supplementary question, so that they may ask their primary question, and one follow up. This would allow them to counter any evasive answers. There would, like here, be time limits on Questions and Answers to ensure that one side or the other does not ramble on to run out the clock.
My idea would see a 90 minute Question Period. The first two questions would go to the Majority Leader in the Senate, followed by the Minority Leader in the senate. The next two, to the Majority Leader of the house, and then the Minority leader of the house. The following questions would keep this pattern. Maj-Sen, Min-Sen, Maj-Hou, Min-Hou. This would split the questions between the two chambers, and between the two parties. There have been suggestions to have the questioners randomly picked, I'd not be opposed to this so long as the leaders get the first round of questions. Another way to counter having trained seals ask questions is to limit the number of questions a single member can ask to one (and its follow up) every 3 months or so.
Questions should be limited to 45 seconds, and answers to 2 minutes. IIRC this is what they do here in Canada. In reality, the entire time is not always used. Normally you want 'bad' questions done away with as soon as possible, and normally a 'good' question is asked very quickly. An simplistic answer is "Why do you suck as president?" being followed by "I don't". Short questions and answers also have a much better chance of making it onto the repeating news cycle, so a short quick jab followed by a short effective defense helps both sides 'win'. Normally an entire question and it's supplementary will be done in 3 minutes. At least that is how things work here. This would allow for a full cycle of 12 minutes, allowing 7 questions from each half of each house in each session. This may not sound like much, and it is not, but the point of modern question period is less getting real answers, and more of drawing the pubilc's attention to problems so that they demand real answers.
Americans curious about how we do Question Period need only to check You Tube for "Question Period Canada". I personally recommend the "Big Gas" clip :)
Sorry, no extra data today!
Thursday, February 4, 2010
Toronto Centre (provincial) By-Election
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Final Results
Lib - 12327 - 47.0%
NDP - 8685 - 33.1%
PC - 4030 - 15.4%
Grn - 806 - 3.1%
IND - 101 - 0.4% (Candidate Rama Raj)
Lbt - 99 - 0.4% (Libertarian Party)
Fpo - 89 - 0.3% (Freeom Party of Ontario)
IND - 67 - 0.3% (John Turmel)
What is important here is the swing. The Liberals lost less than 1% of the vote, comparing it to the general election three years ago. What we do see is that a quarter of PC voters, and most Greens were willing to switch to a party they thought could win (The NDP) to try to force the Liberals out. I will take the Green number with a grain of salt - that party does not perform well in by-elections at all times - but the PC number may be of some real significance. What if a quarter of voters from either the Tories or NDP is willing to switch to the other to push the Liberals out of office? I ran the numbers and came up with this:
Lib - 61
PC - 31
NDP - 14
All in all, a great night for the Ontario Liberals.
--------
Old Post
--------
I will be following the results of the by-election online, and you can too from here:
http://www.elections.on.ca/en-ca
I will be "live blogging" by editing info into this post as the night goes on.
9:14pm
The NDP is in the lead, but it is only 1% of the polls in.
9:15pm
NDP - 36
Lib - 15
PC - 4
Grn - 2
Oth - 1
Total votes, not percentages. It is very early.
9:22pm
Lib - 893
NDP - 726
PC - 308
Grn - 56
Oth - 19
Libs in the lead. NDP second. 15% of polls in. The race is taking shape, it is too late at this point for anyone but the Liberals or NDP to win, and while the Liberals have a lead, it is not clear just yet.
9:30pm
Lib - 3176 - 46.6%
NDP - 2322 - 34.1%
PC - 1031 - 15.1%
Grn - 198 - 2.9%
1/3rd of polls in
The Liberals have pulled out a wider lead, will it last?
9:38pm
The lead is pretty clear at this point
Lib - 45.8%
NDP - 32.1%
With 50%+ of the polls in, I'm going to call it a win here. Glen Murray is the new MPP for Toronto Centre.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Final Results
Lib - 12327 - 47.0%
NDP - 8685 - 33.1%
PC - 4030 - 15.4%
Grn - 806 - 3.1%
IND - 101 - 0.4% (Candidate Rama Raj)
Lbt - 99 - 0.4% (Libertarian Party)
Fpo - 89 - 0.3% (Freeom Party of Ontario)
IND - 67 - 0.3% (John Turmel)
What is important here is the swing. The Liberals lost less than 1% of the vote, comparing it to the general election three years ago. What we do see is that a quarter of PC voters, and most Greens were willing to switch to a party they thought could win (The NDP) to try to force the Liberals out. I will take the Green number with a grain of salt - that party does not perform well in by-elections at all times - but the PC number may be of some real significance. What if a quarter of voters from either the Tories or NDP is willing to switch to the other to push the Liberals out of office? I ran the numbers and came up with this:
Lib - 61
PC - 31
NDP - 14
All in all, a great night for the Ontario Liberals.
--------
Old Post
--------
I will be following the results of the by-election online, and you can too from here:
http://www.elections.on.ca/en-ca
I will be "live blogging" by editing info into this post as the night goes on.
9:14pm
The NDP is in the lead, but it is only 1% of the polls in.
9:15pm
NDP - 36
Lib - 15
PC - 4
Grn - 2
Oth - 1
Total votes, not percentages. It is very early.
9:22pm
Lib - 893
NDP - 726
PC - 308
Grn - 56
Oth - 19
Libs in the lead. NDP second. 15% of polls in. The race is taking shape, it is too late at this point for anyone but the Liberals or NDP to win, and while the Liberals have a lead, it is not clear just yet.
9:30pm
Lib - 3176 - 46.6%
NDP - 2322 - 34.1%
PC - 1031 - 15.1%
Grn - 198 - 2.9%
1/3rd of polls in
The Liberals have pulled out a wider lead, will it last?
9:38pm
The lead is pretty clear at this point
Lib - 45.8%
NDP - 32.1%
With 50%+ of the polls in, I'm going to call it a win here. Glen Murray is the new MPP for Toronto Centre.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Toronto Projection Soup
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My last post may have been a bit confusing, so I wanted to clarify.
There are blocs of voters that will vote for certain candidates of types of candidates. Therefore I wanted to make clear the following.
Presuming that Minnan-Wong, and Ford do not run, and that Pantalone drops out. Currently, I would expect the polls to realistically be at:
Smitherman - 38% (Centre Left)
Giambrone - 30% (Left)
Rossi - 30% (Centre Right)
Others - 2%
If Pantalone is in, the split between him and Giambrone would be 18-12
If Minnan-Wong or Ford runs, the split between that candidate and Rossi would be 15-15
If Minnan-Wong and Ford run, the split between the two would be 10-5 in Minnan-Wong's favour.
Sorry, no extra data today!
My last post may have been a bit confusing, so I wanted to clarify.
There are blocs of voters that will vote for certain candidates of types of candidates. Therefore I wanted to make clear the following.
Presuming that Minnan-Wong, and Ford do not run, and that Pantalone drops out. Currently, I would expect the polls to realistically be at:
Smitherman - 38% (Centre Left)
Giambrone - 30% (Left)
Rossi - 30% (Centre Right)
Others - 2%
If Pantalone is in, the split between him and Giambrone would be 18-12
If Minnan-Wong or Ford runs, the split between that candidate and Rossi would be 15-15
If Minnan-Wong and Ford run, the split between the two would be 10-5 in Minnan-Wong's favour.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Liberals close in on Tories
<- Click here to see the full post
Full data below the fold.
With recent polls showing the Liberals and the Tories running neck and neck, it is only reasonable to expect the projections to catch up. Here are our current federal numbers.
CPC - 131 - 33.1%
Lib - 96 - 30.1%
BQ - 47 - 9.9%
NDP - 34 - 17.0%
There is a strong Liberal Trend.
So, what's happened? To answer that we need to go back, far back, to 2006. In 2006 Canadians realized they do not like the Liberal Party because of sponsorship; so they threw the red bastards out, and elected the blue ones.
In 2008, Canadians realized they do not like Stephane Dion. They really do not like Stephane Dion. Frankly, I don't blame them. That brings us to 2009. Iggy became leader. At first, Canadians were excited, but by the time the summer hit, people realized that they don't much care for Iggy either. Then came the Prorogue scandal. It's not so much that Canadians hated the idea of a proroguation (and sure some did, but in general, Harper is right, they don't care) What this scandal did was bring to the surface the fact that Canadians don't like Stephen Harper either. Over the years they've been so focused on the Liberals and their leaders, they have forgotten that they never really liked Harper in the first place. This scandal has reminded them of just why they don't like him.
So now it's a race between Harper (who they don't like) Iggy (whom they also don't like) and Layton (who they clearly don't like) It's no wonder polls have a Bloc comeback and the Greens in the double digits.
Atlantic
CPC - 14
Lib - 12
NDP - 6
Quebec
BQ - 47
Lib - 20
CPC - 7
NDP - 1
Ontario
Lib - 51
CPC - 44
NDP - 11
Prairies
CPC - 22
NDP - 4
Lib - 2
Alberta
CPC - 26
Lib - 1
NDP - 1
BC
CPC - 17
NDP - 10
Lib - 9
Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1
Full data below the fold.
With recent polls showing the Liberals and the Tories running neck and neck, it is only reasonable to expect the projections to catch up. Here are our current federal numbers.
CPC - 131 - 33.1%
Lib - 96 - 30.1%
BQ - 47 - 9.9%
NDP - 34 - 17.0%
There is a strong Liberal Trend.
So, what's happened? To answer that we need to go back, far back, to 2006. In 2006 Canadians realized they do not like the Liberal Party because of sponsorship; so they threw the red bastards out, and elected the blue ones.
In 2008, Canadians realized they do not like Stephane Dion. They really do not like Stephane Dion. Frankly, I don't blame them. That brings us to 2009. Iggy became leader. At first, Canadians were excited, but by the time the summer hit, people realized that they don't much care for Iggy either. Then came the Prorogue scandal. It's not so much that Canadians hated the idea of a proroguation (and sure some did, but in general, Harper is right, they don't care) What this scandal did was bring to the surface the fact that Canadians don't like Stephen Harper either. Over the years they've been so focused on the Liberals and their leaders, they have forgotten that they never really liked Harper in the first place. This scandal has reminded them of just why they don't like him.
So now it's a race between Harper (who they don't like) Iggy (whom they also don't like) and Layton (who they clearly don't like) It's no wonder polls have a Bloc comeback and the Greens in the double digits.
Atlantic
CPC - 14
Lib - 12
NDP - 6
Quebec
BQ - 47
Lib - 20
CPC - 7
NDP - 1
Ontario
Lib - 51
CPC - 44
NDP - 11
Prairies
CPC - 22
NDP - 4
Lib - 2
Alberta
CPC - 26
Lib - 1
NDP - 1
BC
CPC - 17
NDP - 10
Lib - 9
Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
The Polls, according to Rob Ford
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According to a Toronto Star article Mr.Ford has commissioned his own poll showing him with 13% of the vote.
I for one don't see what the big whoop is, as I myself projected a slice of the political pie to go to a right-wing candidate in this year's municipal election. In that post I projected the polls to be as follows:
Smitherman - (L) - 38%
Pantalone - (N) - 18%
Rossi - (L) - 15%
Giambrone - (N) - 15%
Minnan-Wong - (C) - 12%
Mammoliti - (N) - 2%
Since then, Giambrone has been hot, and Pantalone has not. Rossi, as I projected he would, has taken a clear stand and has occupied the ground formerly taken by Jon Tory. Smitherman, meanwhile, remains ahead of his nearest rival by a 2-to-1 margin.
Ford's poll shows little, but confirms:
Smitherman - 46%
Giambrone - 17%
Ford - 13%
As this is a poll, even a slightly skewed one, I will update my official projections as of this time to the following:
Smitherman - (L) - 38%
Giambrone - (N) - 18%
Rossi - (L) - 15%
Pantalone - (N) - 12%
Minnan-Wong - (PC) - 10% [Combined 15% if only one runs]
Ford - (C) - 5% [Combined 15% if only one runs]
Mammoliti - (N) - not a chance
Sorry, no extra data today!
According to a Toronto Star article Mr.Ford has commissioned his own poll showing him with 13% of the vote.
I for one don't see what the big whoop is, as I myself projected a slice of the political pie to go to a right-wing candidate in this year's municipal election. In that post I projected the polls to be as follows:
Smitherman - (L) - 38%
Pantalone - (N) - 18%
Rossi - (L) - 15%
Giambrone - (N) - 15%
Minnan-Wong - (C) - 12%
Mammoliti - (N) - 2%
Since then, Giambrone has been hot, and Pantalone has not. Rossi, as I projected he would, has taken a clear stand and has occupied the ground formerly taken by Jon Tory. Smitherman, meanwhile, remains ahead of his nearest rival by a 2-to-1 margin.
Ford's poll shows little, but confirms:
Smitherman - 46%
Giambrone - 17%
Ford - 13%
As this is a poll, even a slightly skewed one, I will update my official projections as of this time to the following:
Smitherman - (L) - 38%
Giambrone - (N) - 18%
Rossi - (L) - 15%
Pantalone - (N) - 12%
Minnan-Wong - (PC) - 10% [Combined 15% if only one runs]
Ford - (C) - 5% [Combined 15% if only one runs]
Mammoliti - (N) - not a chance
Sorry, no extra data today!
Friday, January 29, 2010
New Senators
-
This will be a short post.
Harper has appointed 5 new senators. What does this mean?
First, it means that for the first time since the 1990's, the Tories have a plurality in the Senate. Even more interesting is that prior to the 1990's, the last time they managed this was when Bennett was Prime Minister. The Tories take control of the upper chamber less often than they take government, so this indeed is something of note.
Once all the appointments go though, the party standings will be as follows:
CPC - 51
Lib - 49
Oth - 5
So who are these people anyway?
The Quebecois of the bunch is a law and order type.
One of the Ontarians, is an immigrant from India. Hindu immigrants have been somewhat friendly towards the Conservatives, and this may be an attempt to shore up that front of the party.
The other three hail from Ontario, Newfoundland, and New Brunswick. All of them are sitting PC members in their respective provincial legislatures.
And that is the short of it.
Sorry, no extra data today!
This will be a short post.
Harper has appointed 5 new senators. What does this mean?
First, it means that for the first time since the 1990's, the Tories have a plurality in the Senate. Even more interesting is that prior to the 1990's, the last time they managed this was when Bennett was Prime Minister. The Tories take control of the upper chamber less often than they take government, so this indeed is something of note.
Once all the appointments go though, the party standings will be as follows:
CPC - 51
Lib - 49
Oth - 5
So who are these people anyway?
The Quebecois of the bunch is a law and order type.
One of the Ontarians, is an immigrant from India. Hindu immigrants have been somewhat friendly towards the Conservatives, and this may be an attempt to shore up that front of the party.
The other three hail from Ontario, Newfoundland, and New Brunswick. All of them are sitting PC members in their respective provincial legislatures.
And that is the short of it.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Monday, January 25, 2010
Palestine Election 2010
-
This is the election that will never be, or so it seems. Palestine has been due for an election for quite some time now but has been unable to hold one due to the fact that the country is split in two.
Beyond the geographic split between the West Bank and Gaza Strip, there is a political split, with Fatah (and pals) controlling the West Bank, and Hamas (and pals) controlling the Gaza Strip. Neither, of course, really want's to lose their grasp on power in their half to risk gaining power in the other half (less it be ripped away though a civil war like it was the first time) The situation may then just remain as-is.
But what is the situation as-is? I've decided to take a look at another Wikipedia page found here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_members_of_Palestinian_Legislative_Council and come up with a few numbers.
First of all, I tried to find out where this broken assembly currently stands. If I have my count right, Hamas and friends have 65 seats, while Fatah and friends have 47. I decided to make it interesting, and try to split the vote between the two. This is difficult as the Proportional Representation seats are assigned nationwide. What I decided to do was place all Fatah reps in the West Bank and all Hamas in Gaza. This seemed logical. This is what I came up with.
West Bank (2.6 mil)
Fatah - 42 (34 list)
Hamas - 19
Gaza Strip (1.6 mil)
Hamas - 46 (26 list)
Fatah - 5
So what do these numbers mean? Not much, sadly, they are pretty useless. This is, however, the closest we can get to the "situation as-is", and my simple calculation here and now, sadly, looks about as close as we will get to a Palestinian election this year.
Sorry, no extra data today!
This is the election that will never be, or so it seems. Palestine has been due for an election for quite some time now but has been unable to hold one due to the fact that the country is split in two.
Beyond the geographic split between the West Bank and Gaza Strip, there is a political split, with Fatah (and pals) controlling the West Bank, and Hamas (and pals) controlling the Gaza Strip. Neither, of course, really want's to lose their grasp on power in their half to risk gaining power in the other half (less it be ripped away though a civil war like it was the first time) The situation may then just remain as-is.
But what is the situation as-is? I've decided to take a look at another Wikipedia page found here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_members_of_Palestinian_Legislative_Council and come up with a few numbers.
First of all, I tried to find out where this broken assembly currently stands. If I have my count right, Hamas and friends have 65 seats, while Fatah and friends have 47. I decided to make it interesting, and try to split the vote between the two. This is difficult as the Proportional Representation seats are assigned nationwide. What I decided to do was place all Fatah reps in the West Bank and all Hamas in Gaza. This seemed logical. This is what I came up with.
West Bank (2.6 mil)
Fatah - 42 (34 list)
Hamas - 19
Gaza Strip (1.6 mil)
Hamas - 46 (26 list)
Fatah - 5
So what do these numbers mean? Not much, sadly, they are pretty useless. This is, however, the closest we can get to the "situation as-is", and my simple calculation here and now, sadly, looks about as close as we will get to a Palestinian election this year.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Projection... for Ireland!
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In our efforts to branch out our coverage, we've decided to provide some coverage of the ever pending Irish election.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Irish_general_election
A little history. Ireland has two main parties, Fianna Fáil (FF) and Fine Gael (FG). There is also a strong Labour Party. To summarize - and I'm dumbing it down a little to be concise - either FF wins on it's own, or FG and Labour wins with a coalition government. FF and FG have a very similar yet very different history. They were once a single party split by the idea of having the English monarch in Ireland. For this reason, neither party was really "left" or "right" of the other, but the co-operation with Labour over time has pulled FG to the left while FF has been allowed to drift to the right.
Now recent history. FF has been hurt by the recession, and it's perceived mismanagement of the situation. They have dropped like a rock in the polls, coming in third place by some counts. I've decided to run a poll average plus some trend and baselines and see if I can come up with a seat projection for the coming election. This is what I have.
FG - 57 (Gov)
FF - 43
Lab - 38 (Gov)
SC - 14
Grn - 8
Ind - 5
CC - 1
While there will errors in this count, of course, but it is a good rough guide as to what may happen when the election is called; of course, that could be 2012.
Sorry, no extra data today!
In our efforts to branch out our coverage, we've decided to provide some coverage of the ever pending Irish election.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Irish_general_election
A little history. Ireland has two main parties, Fianna Fáil (FF) and Fine Gael (FG). There is also a strong Labour Party. To summarize - and I'm dumbing it down a little to be concise - either FF wins on it's own, or FG and Labour wins with a coalition government. FF and FG have a very similar yet very different history. They were once a single party split by the idea of having the English monarch in Ireland. For this reason, neither party was really "left" or "right" of the other, but the co-operation with Labour over time has pulled FG to the left while FF has been allowed to drift to the right.
Now recent history. FF has been hurt by the recession, and it's perceived mismanagement of the situation. They have dropped like a rock in the polls, coming in third place by some counts. I've decided to run a poll average plus some trend and baselines and see if I can come up with a seat projection for the coming election. This is what I have.
FG - 57 (Gov)
FF - 43
Lab - 38 (Gov)
SC - 14
Grn - 8
Ind - 5
CC - 1
While there will errors in this count, of course, but it is a good rough guide as to what may happen when the election is called; of course, that could be 2012.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Saturday, January 23, 2010
And so what of the ADQ?
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My last post on Quebec touches on the ADQ's problems, but what of them? What is next? Lets for a moment take a look at another provincial-only right-wing party. The Wildrose Alliance. They are, at the moment, polling for government in Alberta, but what of them before they became "hot"?
To fully understand what happened in Alberta, you have to go all the way back to the 1971 election of the PC Party. In 1971, and following this in 1975 and 1979, Social Credit remained the official opposition. In 1982, 2 members of the party started their own party, and managed to get re-elected, and take 12% of the vote. In 86 a western separatist party took 5% of the vote. In fact, outside of 89 and 2001, there has always been some kind of right-opposition in Alberta.
Lets glance back at Quebec for a moment. In 1985, the PC Party made an entrance, and took a whole 1% of the vote. In 1989, there was no major right-wing opponent to the Liberals, but outside of this, there also, like Alberta, been a right-wing opposition party. Recently, that has been the ADQ. Now, back to Alberta. In 1997 a man named Randy Thorsteinson lead the Alberta Social Credit party though an election and brought it to within spitting distance of the NDP. He later quit due to precived bias against him (he is Mormon) Thorsteinson went on to found the Alberta Alliance, which won a seat in the 2004 provincial election, electing Paul Hinman, also a Mormon. As the only MLA, Hinman went on to become leader. By the 2008 election, a new party, the Wildrose Party had spring up as another right-wing alternative. It had the big names, and big dollars, but lacked the grassroots organization and in-place party machine the Alberta Alliance did. The two decided to merge and throw in their chances with a single party. Although they came very close to re-electing Hinman, they failed. Now it is 2010. The party has a new leader, they found a seat for Hinman, have two floor crossers, and are polling near 40%.
So, what does this mean for Quebec? It means, in short, the ADQ may be dead in a few years, but the "ADQ" may yet take government. How? The same way Reform Party member Stephen Harper become Prime Minister. Though mergers, party re-branding, and other such things. There were roomers a few years ago that should Charest ever lose government, that the federal Conservatives would make a serious attempt to organize a provincial party in Quebec. How much water this holds is unknown, but the fact that it is a possibility does mean a possible bittersweet end to the ADQ. Clearly the ADQ was never able to move beyond Dumont, but one thing they did gain was a present party machine, and grassroots connections. Even if many of their supporters have drifted, those who were once "in the know" likely remember others "in the know" making connections easy to re-establish.
I for one feel that this is the path the ADQ is going to be heading down. Weather it changes it's name, or merges with some upstart party, I do not see the ADQ in it's current form lasting for very much longer, while at the same time I do not see the idea of a right-wing francophone opposition party vanishing any time soon.
Sorry, no extra data today!
My last post on Quebec touches on the ADQ's problems, but what of them? What is next? Lets for a moment take a look at another provincial-only right-wing party. The Wildrose Alliance. They are, at the moment, polling for government in Alberta, but what of them before they became "hot"?
To fully understand what happened in Alberta, you have to go all the way back to the 1971 election of the PC Party. In 1971, and following this in 1975 and 1979, Social Credit remained the official opposition. In 1982, 2 members of the party started their own party, and managed to get re-elected, and take 12% of the vote. In 86 a western separatist party took 5% of the vote. In fact, outside of 89 and 2001, there has always been some kind of right-opposition in Alberta.
Lets glance back at Quebec for a moment. In 1985, the PC Party made an entrance, and took a whole 1% of the vote. In 1989, there was no major right-wing opponent to the Liberals, but outside of this, there also, like Alberta, been a right-wing opposition party. Recently, that has been the ADQ. Now, back to Alberta. In 1997 a man named Randy Thorsteinson lead the Alberta Social Credit party though an election and brought it to within spitting distance of the NDP. He later quit due to precived bias against him (he is Mormon) Thorsteinson went on to found the Alberta Alliance, which won a seat in the 2004 provincial election, electing Paul Hinman, also a Mormon. As the only MLA, Hinman went on to become leader. By the 2008 election, a new party, the Wildrose Party had spring up as another right-wing alternative. It had the big names, and big dollars, but lacked the grassroots organization and in-place party machine the Alberta Alliance did. The two decided to merge and throw in their chances with a single party. Although they came very close to re-electing Hinman, they failed. Now it is 2010. The party has a new leader, they found a seat for Hinman, have two floor crossers, and are polling near 40%.
So, what does this mean for Quebec? It means, in short, the ADQ may be dead in a few years, but the "ADQ" may yet take government. How? The same way Reform Party member Stephen Harper become Prime Minister. Though mergers, party re-branding, and other such things. There were roomers a few years ago that should Charest ever lose government, that the federal Conservatives would make a serious attempt to organize a provincial party in Quebec. How much water this holds is unknown, but the fact that it is a possibility does mean a possible bittersweet end to the ADQ. Clearly the ADQ was never able to move beyond Dumont, but one thing they did gain was a present party machine, and grassroots connections. Even if many of their supporters have drifted, those who were once "in the know" likely remember others "in the know" making connections easy to re-establish.
I for one feel that this is the path the ADQ is going to be heading down. Weather it changes it's name, or merges with some upstart party, I do not see the ADQ in it's current form lasting for very much longer, while at the same time I do not see the idea of a right-wing francophone opposition party vanishing any time soon.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Friday, January 22, 2010
Quebec
- MORE BELOW THE FOLD!
Recently, over at 308.blogspot they've claimed that with current poll numbers, the ADQ could be eliminated from the map. I wanted to check to see just how true this was. They are currently sitting on near half the vote they took last time; halving their vote in every riding would indeed wipe them from the board. Only two of their MNA's have seats that they could realistically win in the next election, and that is presuming a strong showing. In reality, it is going to come down to weather or not their leader can hold on to his own seat. Right now it is not looking good.
So how are things looking for the other parties. Well lets examine this using Quebec's two 'communities'.
First, among francophone.
PQ - 50%
PLQ - 30%
QS - 8%
ADQ - 7%
PV - 4% (AKA the Greens)
And among non-francophones
PLQ - 77%
PV - 8%
PQ - 7%
QS - 3%
ADQ - 1%
When combined you get:
PQ - 41%
PLQ - 39%
QS - 7%
ADQ - 6%
PV - 5%
The most interesting thing to note here is not the lack of support for the PQ or ADQ among non-francophones, as this has always been the case, but the fact that the Green Party is #2 among this group. Perhaps it is of little real use, but interesting to note nonetheless.
Below the fold, regional breakdowns, as well federal information.
There is also a region by region breakdown. In the Montreal area...
PLQ - 40%
PQ - 37%
QS - 9%
PV - 7%
ADQ - 5%
in the Quebec city area...
PLQ - 37%
PQ - 35%
ADQ - 15% (this is good news fro them)
QS - 8%
PV - 4%
The last figure for the ADQ may mean they might be able to hold on to their seats, but it is iffy at best.
Federal numbers
BQ - 40%
Lib - 23%
CPC - 17%
NDP - 15%
Grn - 4%
Among Francophones
BQ - 48%
Lib - 18%
CPC - 15%
NDP - 15%
Grn - 3%
Among Non-Francophones
Lib - 43%
CPC - 22%
NDP - 19%
Grn - 8%
BQ - 7%
Again, we note the Greens do better among non-francohphones
Montreal
BQ - 36%
Lib - 27%
NDP - 18%
CPC - 12%
Grn - 6%
And Quebec City
CPC - 30%
BQ - 30%
NDP - 20%
Lib - 14%
Grn - 4%
Recently, over at 308.blogspot they've claimed that with current poll numbers, the ADQ could be eliminated from the map. I wanted to check to see just how true this was. They are currently sitting on near half the vote they took last time; halving their vote in every riding would indeed wipe them from the board. Only two of their MNA's have seats that they could realistically win in the next election, and that is presuming a strong showing. In reality, it is going to come down to weather or not their leader can hold on to his own seat. Right now it is not looking good.
So how are things looking for the other parties. Well lets examine this using Quebec's two 'communities'.
First, among francophone.
PQ - 50%
PLQ - 30%
QS - 8%
ADQ - 7%
PV - 4% (AKA the Greens)
And among non-francophones
PLQ - 77%
PV - 8%
PQ - 7%
QS - 3%
ADQ - 1%
When combined you get:
PQ - 41%
PLQ - 39%
QS - 7%
ADQ - 6%
PV - 5%
The most interesting thing to note here is not the lack of support for the PQ or ADQ among non-francophones, as this has always been the case, but the fact that the Green Party is #2 among this group. Perhaps it is of little real use, but interesting to note nonetheless.
Below the fold, regional breakdowns, as well federal information.
There is also a region by region breakdown. In the Montreal area...
PLQ - 40%
PQ - 37%
QS - 9%
PV - 7%
ADQ - 5%
in the Quebec city area...
PLQ - 37%
PQ - 35%
ADQ - 15% (this is good news fro them)
QS - 8%
PV - 4%
The last figure for the ADQ may mean they might be able to hold on to their seats, but it is iffy at best.
Federal numbers
BQ - 40%
Lib - 23%
CPC - 17%
NDP - 15%
Grn - 4%
Among Francophones
BQ - 48%
Lib - 18%
CPC - 15%
NDP - 15%
Grn - 3%
Among Non-Francophones
Lib - 43%
CPC - 22%
NDP - 19%
Grn - 8%
BQ - 7%
Again, we note the Greens do better among non-francohphones
Montreal
BQ - 36%
Lib - 27%
NDP - 18%
CPC - 12%
Grn - 6%
And Quebec City
CPC - 30%
BQ - 30%
NDP - 20%
Lib - 14%
Grn - 4%
TO Mayor - Rossi attacks transit
-
Rocco Rossi has finally positioned himself in the race for mayor, and has put himself exactly where we put on a week ago, on the right.
Rossi has come out swinging against the evils of public transit (how dare we help those who cannot afford cars!) and has used the same pathetic excuse to kill it that politicians like Mike Harris did to permanently stop transit projects in this city, saying that its only "temporary" thing until we "have the money" Or, reading it more properly, until we have EXTRA money... since when does government ever have "extra" money? Never, and that's precisely when Rossi wishes to build our public transit improvements.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Rocco Rossi has finally positioned himself in the race for mayor, and has put himself exactly where we put on a week ago, on the right.
Rossi has come out swinging against the evils of public transit (how dare we help those who cannot afford cars!) and has used the same pathetic excuse to kill it that politicians like Mike Harris did to permanently stop transit projects in this city, saying that its only "temporary" thing until we "have the money" Or, reading it more properly, until we have EXTRA money... since when does government ever have "extra" money? Never, and that's precisely when Rossi wishes to build our public transit improvements.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
A little Randomness
<- Click here to see the full post
Every once in a while I like to do a random post of personal interest to myself. I will hide the details below the fold, but in short, this post is about overpopulation and arable land.
I've taken the amount of arable land, and applied an arbitrary number to it based on my personal observations, and decided that 1 sq KM of land can support 1,000 people. Using this as a base, I decided to find out which countries are over populated. Using some stats from Wikipedia, I've put the results below.
First note that I've decided to only use countries with over a million people, and even then to only list a few of them that are of particular interest. and even then, only note ones that are overpopulated (or underpopulated) by a good margin. Note the percentage noted is the inverse of the population that can be supported. Hence, a nation that can support 1 million, but has 10 million, will be listed as 90%.
Overpopulated by
Gaza Strip - 92.44%
Israel - 52.42%
Switzerland - 47.38%
Belgium - 19.90%
Ecuador - 99.64%
Netherlands - 54.65%
South Korea - 66.53%
United Kingdom - 7.15%
Egypt - 62.52%
Japan - 65.80%
Bangladesh - 48.61%
And some countries are, by these numbers, underpopulated. Here is a list of those.
Iraq - 117%
Afghanistan - 162%
France - 201%
Brazil - 214%
United States - 458%
Canada - 1,183%
Australia - 2,231%
And lastly, if the countries had as many people as they could "support" they would have this many people, above and beyond their current population.
USA - 1,354 million
Russia - 1,075
Australia - 448
Brazil - 400
Canada - 383
India - 358
Every once in a while I like to do a random post of personal interest to myself. I will hide the details below the fold, but in short, this post is about overpopulation and arable land.
I've taken the amount of arable land, and applied an arbitrary number to it based on my personal observations, and decided that 1 sq KM of land can support 1,000 people. Using this as a base, I decided to find out which countries are over populated. Using some stats from Wikipedia, I've put the results below.
First note that I've decided to only use countries with over a million people, and even then to only list a few of them that are of particular interest. and even then, only note ones that are overpopulated (or underpopulated) by a good margin. Note the percentage noted is the inverse of the population that can be supported. Hence, a nation that can support 1 million, but has 10 million, will be listed as 90%.
Overpopulated by
Gaza Strip - 92.44%
Israel - 52.42%
Switzerland - 47.38%
Belgium - 19.90%
Ecuador - 99.64%
Netherlands - 54.65%
South Korea - 66.53%
United Kingdom - 7.15%
Egypt - 62.52%
Japan - 65.80%
Bangladesh - 48.61%
And some countries are, by these numbers, underpopulated. Here is a list of those.
Iraq - 117%
Afghanistan - 162%
France - 201%
Brazil - 214%
United States - 458%
Canada - 1,183%
Australia - 2,231%
And lastly, if the countries had as many people as they could "support" they would have this many people, above and beyond their current population.
USA - 1,354 million
Russia - 1,075
Australia - 448
Brazil - 400
Canada - 383
India - 358
Monday, January 18, 2010
Provinces
-
A short update on the provinces.
Ontario -
Toronto Centre is currently vacant, and Ottawa West-Nepean will be soon. Both MPP's are running for mayor, and both will likely be replaced by Liberals, though there is a chance the Tories can steal the latter.
Current official party standings are...
Lib - 71
PC - 25
NDP - 10
Vac - 1
Quebec
The members who quit the ADQ because of it's now former leader have yet to re-join the party, if they will at all.
PLQ - 66
PQ - 51
ADQ - 4
QS - 1
IND - 3
British Columbia
The seatless Conservatives have been doing somewhat well in recent polls.
BCL - 49
NDP - 35
IND - 1
Alberta
Expetations are that the Alliance will either win government or opposition in the next election.
PC - 68
Lib - 9
WAP - 3
NDP - 2
IND - 1
Manitoba
The lone vacant riding is solid NDP.
NDP - 35
PC - 19
Lib - 2
Vac - 1
Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan Party continues to lead in the polls.
Sask - 38
NDP - 20
Nova Scotia
PC Party to elect a new leader in October
NDP - 32
Lib - 11
PC - 9
New Brunswick
The Liberals are trailing in the polls, perhaps more than any other incumbent government. Word is that the new user fee for ambulance usage is an issue.
Lib - 33
PC - 22
Newfoundland
Williams remains popular.
PC - 43
Lib - 4
NDP - 1
Prince Edward Island
The Tories may finally pick a leader this year, but the chances of that are low. They've had an interim leader for 3 years now.
Lib - 24
PC - 3
While on the topic of Other Legislatures in Canada, we may as well take a quick glance at the Senate.
This wikipedia page (Parts of which I created) explains the situation very well.
CPC - 46
Lib - 49
PC - 2
IND - 3 (including Anne Cools)
VAC - 5
There are no retirements before Parliament returns, and presuming Harper appoints new senators, the standings at that time will be:
CPC - 51
Lib - 49
PC - 2
IND - 3
Sorry, no extra data today!
A short update on the provinces.
Ontario -
Toronto Centre is currently vacant, and Ottawa West-Nepean will be soon. Both MPP's are running for mayor, and both will likely be replaced by Liberals, though there is a chance the Tories can steal the latter.
Current official party standings are...
Lib - 71
PC - 25
NDP - 10
Vac - 1
Quebec
The members who quit the ADQ because of it's now former leader have yet to re-join the party, if they will at all.
PLQ - 66
PQ - 51
ADQ - 4
QS - 1
IND - 3
British Columbia
The seatless Conservatives have been doing somewhat well in recent polls.
BCL - 49
NDP - 35
IND - 1
Alberta
Expetations are that the Alliance will either win government or opposition in the next election.
PC - 68
Lib - 9
WAP - 3
NDP - 2
IND - 1
Manitoba
The lone vacant riding is solid NDP.
NDP - 35
PC - 19
Lib - 2
Vac - 1
Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan Party continues to lead in the polls.
Sask - 38
NDP - 20
Nova Scotia
PC Party to elect a new leader in October
NDP - 32
Lib - 11
PC - 9
New Brunswick
The Liberals are trailing in the polls, perhaps more than any other incumbent government. Word is that the new user fee for ambulance usage is an issue.
Lib - 33
PC - 22
Newfoundland
Williams remains popular.
PC - 43
Lib - 4
NDP - 1
Prince Edward Island
The Tories may finally pick a leader this year, but the chances of that are low. They've had an interim leader for 3 years now.
Lib - 24
PC - 3
While on the topic of Other Legislatures in Canada, we may as well take a quick glance at the Senate.
This wikipedia page (Parts of which I created) explains the situation very well.
CPC - 46
Lib - 49
PC - 2
IND - 3 (including Anne Cools)
VAC - 5
There are no retirements before Parliament returns, and presuming Harper appoints new senators, the standings at that time will be:
CPC - 51
Lib - 49
PC - 2
IND - 3
Sorry, no extra data today!
Friday, January 15, 2010
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Tories take hit
-
Current projection
CPC - 135
Lib - 87
BQ - 48
NDP - 38
No commentary
Sorry, no extra data today!
Current projection
CPC - 135
Lib - 87
BQ - 48
NDP - 38
No commentary
Sorry, no extra data today!
Toronto, first poll!
-
A new poll has come out ranking who people would vote for Mayor in Toronto. The results are as follows:
Smitherman - 44%
Giambrone - 17%
Rossi - 15%
Pantalone - 5%
Mammoliti - 4%
The poll states that 58%, however, were undecided, so the real base numbers are as follows:
Smitherman - 18%
Giambrone - 7%
Rossi - 6%
Pantalone - 2%
Mammoliti - 2%
I'm also going to add:
Minnan-Wong - 2%
Rossi, due to Tory's departure, can have a real run. I still maintain that you can't have three successful NDPers in the race, and that Mammoliti is the one set for a drop. Pantalone, and Minnan-Wong, I think, are under-rated.
So where do I see the race at this time? IE- if people truly knew all the candidates? Simple. Right here:
Smitherman - (L) - 38%
Pantalone - (N) - 18%
Rossi - (L) - 15%
Giambrone - (N) - 15%
Minnan-Wong - (C) - 12%
Mammoliti - (N) - 2%
I can see Mammoliti dropping rather than being embarrassed so badly.
Needless to say, Smitherman, at this time, has a good lead.
Sorry, no extra data today!
A new poll has come out ranking who people would vote for Mayor in Toronto. The results are as follows:
Smitherman - 44%
Giambrone - 17%
Rossi - 15%
Pantalone - 5%
Mammoliti - 4%
The poll states that 58%, however, were undecided, so the real base numbers are as follows:
Smitherman - 18%
Giambrone - 7%
Rossi - 6%
Pantalone - 2%
Mammoliti - 2%
I'm also going to add:
Minnan-Wong - 2%
Rossi, due to Tory's departure, can have a real run. I still maintain that you can't have three successful NDPers in the race, and that Mammoliti is the one set for a drop. Pantalone, and Minnan-Wong, I think, are under-rated.
So where do I see the race at this time? IE- if people truly knew all the candidates? Simple. Right here:
Smitherman - (L) - 38%
Pantalone - (N) - 18%
Rossi - (L) - 15%
Giambrone - (N) - 15%
Minnan-Wong - (C) - 12%
Mammoliti - (N) - 2%
I can see Mammoliti dropping rather than being embarrassed so badly.
Needless to say, Smitherman, at this time, has a good lead.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Projection Update
-
Our first official projection update in a while, but they confirm what we've been saying, that not much has changed.
CPC - 142
Lib - 81
BQ - 47
NDP - 38
Regions:
Atlantic
CPC - 14
Lib - 12
NDP - 6
Quebec:
BQ - 47
Lib - 18
CPC - 9
NDP - 1
Ontario:
CPC - 49
Lib - 42
NDP - 15
Central Prairies:
CPC - 23
NDP - 3
Lib - 2
Alberta:
CPC - 27
NDP - 1
BC:
CPC - 19
NDP - 11
Lib - 6
Sorry, no extra data today!
Our first official projection update in a while, but they confirm what we've been saying, that not much has changed.
CPC - 142
Lib - 81
BQ - 47
NDP - 38
Regions:
Atlantic
CPC - 14
Lib - 12
NDP - 6
Quebec:
BQ - 47
Lib - 18
CPC - 9
NDP - 1
Ontario:
CPC - 49
Lib - 42
NDP - 15
Central Prairies:
CPC - 23
NDP - 3
Lib - 2
Alberta:
CPC - 27
NDP - 1
BC:
CPC - 19
NDP - 11
Lib - 6
Sorry, no extra data today!
Tory not to run for Mayor of TO
-
Thats the roomer according to the Toronto Star. I mentioned the possibility in my earlier post - what is the point of losing yet again? His weight now will come with his endorsement. If he endorses Minnan-Wong, suddenly he becomes the leading right-wing candidate for Mayor, and replaces Tory. If, and people may think this is silly, but it is still possible, he endorses Smitherman, it could vault him into an even further lead.
If the latter happens, I say it will be bad for Smitherman. Why? The campaign will turn into a Smitherman VS Not-Smitherman, and with no evidence that he could win such a race, whomever comes out as the top Not-Smitherman will win.
Who is this good for? Rossi, without a doubt. There is now space for a blue liberal / red tory to run. Rossi, who's connections are by in large the same connections John Tory has, can use that to pull himself on to a level playing field.
As of today (and remember, a week is a long time in politics) I can see Smitherman and Pantalone both topping 30%, but the winner taking less than 35%.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Thats the roomer according to the Toronto Star. I mentioned the possibility in my earlier post - what is the point of losing yet again? His weight now will come with his endorsement. If he endorses Minnan-Wong, suddenly he becomes the leading right-wing candidate for Mayor, and replaces Tory. If, and people may think this is silly, but it is still possible, he endorses Smitherman, it could vault him into an even further lead.
If the latter happens, I say it will be bad for Smitherman. Why? The campaign will turn into a Smitherman VS Not-Smitherman, and with no evidence that he could win such a race, whomever comes out as the top Not-Smitherman will win.
Who is this good for? Rossi, without a doubt. There is now space for a blue liberal / red tory to run. Rossi, who's connections are by in large the same connections John Tory has, can use that to pull himself on to a level playing field.
As of today (and remember, a week is a long time in politics) I can see Smitherman and Pantalone both topping 30%, but the winner taking less than 35%.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Two Alberta PC members defect to Alliance
-
Two Calgary area MLA's have defected to the Wildrose Alliance. This news story:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/calgary/story/2010/01/04/calgary-mlas-conservative-wildrose-alliance.html
explains the details. In short, the Wildrose Alliance now has 3 MLAs, displacing the NDP as the third largest party in the legislature. I for one am surprised, I thought that the window for defections had passed.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Two Calgary area MLA's have defected to the Wildrose Alliance. This news story:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/calgary/story/2010/01/04/calgary-mlas-conservative-wildrose-alliance.html
explains the details. In short, the Wildrose Alliance now has 3 MLAs, displacing the NDP as the third largest party in the legislature. I for one am surprised, I thought that the window for defections had passed.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Toronto, 2010
<- Click here to read more!!
I decided to take the current wikipedia page for the 2010 Toronto Municipal Election and rate the candidates they have listed. This, is what I came up with.
You will notice two "F"s. One candidate is the former last placed candidate. When I ran in the 2006 Toronto Municipal Election in Ward 19 I was able to win 511 votes in just the ward, while he did not top 200 city wide. For this reason I do not consider him a serious candidate to win. Another F on the table is "Pinball Clemons" who is not a Canadian, and therefore cannot run.
One thing that stands out is the large number of NDPers who may try to replace current mayor David Miller (also of the NDP). Many people think of Toronto as a large "NDP" municipal entity, but the reality is that Toronto has only ever had three real "NDP" mayors. John Sewell, Barbara Hall (who since has become a Liberal), and David Miller (who has been publicly supporting the Green Party recently). NDPers have much more luck getting elected to council. Due to the very crowded NDP field, some candidates, like Olivia Chow, may decide not to run at all, and this is exactly what I project her to do. Frances Lankin, while known, is not as high profile as some of the other NDP candidates. Mammoliti and even Nash suffer from this as well. The one thing the NDP has been known for is running a single candidate, and if Pantalone and/or Giambrone run, there will be great pressure on these two to drop out of the race.
On the right, Rob Ford gets a low rating because his politics is more in line with the former Canadian Alliance party, which never came close to winning even a single seat in Toronto. Denzil Minnan-Wong, while to the right of the remaining candidates, has done quite a bit of work to position himself as the unofficial "Opposition Leader" to David Miller, and that may pay off. Micheal Thompson, while not as politically astute as Minnan-Wong, is African-Canadian, and may try to tap into that voter bloc. Thompson, as well, is from Scarborough, while all the other remaining serious candidates are from either the former city of Toronto, or North York.
For the Liberals, we have a trio of candidates. Rosco Rossi has positioned himself as the "Official" Liberal Candidate, and that is very clear. This is similar to 06 when Stephen LeDrew, fresh off being the President of the Federal Liberal Party ran for mayor. While LeDrew finished with less than 2% of the vote, he did finish third. Rossi will make all the lists the media makes, and will be interviewed quite often. He could well count on 5% of the vote, but getting beyond that will be difficult. He will vacuum up all the voters looking for a grit to park their ballot with, and as a result, may harm fellow Liberal Shelly Carrol's chances. With more left of centre candidates running than right of centre candidates, Carrol could be squeezed out, and with bigger names putting their names into the hat, I don't foresee her pulling off a victory.
The final two candidates are Liberal George Smitherman and Tory John Tory (that was not a pun). The Media have decided these are the two front runners and so, as we enter the election, they are. This does not mean either of them will win. Remember that the last Federal Liberal leadership race was between Rate and Iggy, and Dion won. In Alberta, the former "third placed" candidate for the PC Party leadership is now the Premier. With such a crowded field, there is no guarantee either of these two will win.
A closer analysis of the "serious" candidates is included below.
What we end up with is the following list.
George Smitherman - Liberal
John Tory - PC
Joe Pantalone - NDP
Denzil Minnan-Wong - Conservative
Adam Giambrone - NDP
Michael Thompson - PC
Lets go one by one.
Pantalone has been in municipal politics for 25 years, and is the most experienced on the list. As David Miller's Deputy Mayor, he could be seen as the "successor" to Miller's legacy, for better or for worse. Pantalone comes across as one of the "Scary NDP" types that the right-wingers branded David Miller as. He had the highest council expense tab, but countered saying his assistants have followed him though the years and are very experienced. After 25 years, one could call him a career politician. Pantalone has the best chances of getting the unofficial NDP nod, and the other players would hope he does. He is a known quantity, and there would not be the need to "dig up dirt" on him, or invent new attack lines - the old and existing ones will work fine. Pantalone's attitude towards his job seems very similar to Miller's and as such a Pantalone victory would be more "business as usual" with regard to how Toronto has been run over the past 7 years.
Adam Giambrone is 33. Despite this relatively young age, he has managed to serve as federal New Democratic Party President, and is currently the chair of the TTC, the largest transit system in the country. Giambrone has taken his work very seriously, and has been able to remain relatively "clean", though he has had his run ins with trouble. In 2009 he sent an e-mail to a Councillor from a neighboring ward warning him to steer clear of his business. Giambrone is on the up, unlike Pantalone who is looking to put a cap on his career. A successful run for Mayor followed by a successful term could lead to the leadership of the Federal New Democrats, Provincial New Democrats, or should the province return to old voting trends, the Premier's chair. Giambrone may run regardless of what Pantalone does, and if he does he could pose a threat to the Conservatives and Liberals as he is much harder to attack. Giambrone is clearly viewed as the most pro transit of the candidates.
Michael Thompson is the city Councillor perhaps best known for suggesting that Toronto Police should be able to stop black teenagers in black neighborhoods looking for guns. Making the comment more notable is the fact that Thompson is himself black. Thompson is the least known of the others on the short list but his name does appear in the newspapers. Quite often the media will come to him for comment, or note that he is one of a group of Councillors doing something. When asked, however, most Torontonians likely could not tell you much about Michael Thompson. This lack of information can serve him well. Being the only major candidate for Mayor from Scarborough since the mega city was created over a decade ago could garner him votes from that part of the city. Being a visible minority may garner him votes from that minority, despite the fact that his tough law-and-order stances are often out of line with the city as a whole. Thompson is also not as politically astute as the others, and he may yet prove to have a Mel Lastman like tendency to speak off the cuff and get himself in hot water.
Denzil Minnan-Wong is the most right wing person on the short list. More than that, Minnan-Wong is right wing in a way that separates him from past "right wingers". Stephen Harper recently commented that he does not wish to cut transfers to persons or province, but rather, wants to cut salaries of government workers. It is this 'new right' sort of thinking that Minnan-Wong shows in his policies. Minnan-Wong focuses on tax cuts and cutting the 'gunk' out of city government. Over the past three years, Minnan-Wong has done everything in his power to become the visible opposition leader to David Miller. While right wing, Minnan-Wong is not exactly the same kind of "right wing" that tends to scare urban voters. He focuses on talking about tax cuts, not service cuts, on streamlining departments, not eliminating them. Despite this, if elected Minnan-Wong would be the most right wing mayor Toronto has had in the modern era. With solid ideas and a clear direction, Minnan-Wong is least likely to be lead around by City Council, and is the most likely to conflict with it. He comes across as the "Change" Candidate. Weather or not Toronto wants the kind of change he brings remains to be seen.
George Smitherman is gay. That is one of the first things that people will tell you about him. He also used to be Deputy Premier, Miniter of Health, and the Minister of Energy. Unfortunately, he was Deputy Premier when the HST was proposed, Miniter of Health during the C. Difficile issue, and Minister in charge of the OLG during it's recently scandals. Smitherman lies on the left of the Liberal party, and this has often put him at odds with Dalton McGunity, who lies on the right. Smitherman's biggest problem, perhaps, is that he has a tendency to come across as a little 'slick'. When the scandals of the past are taken into account, Smitherman can appear to be 'one of those Politicians only out for himself'. While this will not put him down against Tory or Patnalone, it could hurt his chances of the race boils down to Smitherman vs Giambrone, Thompson, or Minnan-Wong. Currently, Smitherman can be considered the "Front Runner".
John Tory is running again. Perhaps best known for losing, he has lost the 2007 provincial election and the 2003 municipal election. Tory currently hosts a radio show and the idea of losing yet again may push him not to run. My gut says he will, with such a crowded field he could squeak in even on a quarter of the vote. Tory is the most centrist of the candidates, but in recent years has appeared to drift to the right. Tory is known for his rivalry, real or imagined, with George Smitherman. Much as Smitherman appears as a "politician" so does Tory. Tory is a very well known quantity, and likely has more name recognition than any other candidate. Tory is also perhaps the only candidate who's endorsement could be very important. Mayoral elections in Toronto usually boil down in one of three ways. PC vs NDP. Liberal VS NDP. Or PC VS Liberal. Smitherman, endorsement or no endorsement, will lead the Liberals. Pantalone and Giambrone are well known as NDPers, an endorsement from one of the other will mean little. Even a Smitherman endorsement of some other Liberal will likely mean naught as we would likely head to a PC vs NDP race. Should Tory endorse either Minnan-Wong or Thompson, however, it would vault that candidate into a clear second place against Smitherman. Win or not, John Tory will have the most impact on the race.
To review, in summary, we have four groups of three.
Right Wingers: Minnan-Wong, Tory, Thompson
Left Wingers: Smitherman, Giambrone, Pantalone
Reformers: Giambrone, Minnan-Wong, Thompson
Politicians: Pantalone, Smitherman, Tory
So, where will the chips fall at the end of the day? Toronto has a history of electing Reformers to office, but at the same time the current top three candidates are all very "politician" like. My gut says that the Thompson campaign will fall by the wayside as things go on, and that Giambrone may not even run. If this is the case, it could well be a real four man race to the finish line, with Tory, Smitherman, Pantalone, and Minnan-Wong each having a good chance of winning, each representing one of the four main parties (with the federal and provincial Tories seen as different). Together, I project they would clear 85% of the vote, and that the winner may end up with a final total of 30%. I also see that there could be changes to the way Toronto elects its Mayors if this does happen, especially if Minnan-Wong wins.
All that being said, remember that a week is an eternity in politics. Things will happen between now and the election on October 25th that we just don't know yet. Which lesser candidates run and drop can also have a major impact on the final result. We will keep an eye on what is going on and keep you up to date.
~Teddy
I decided to take the current wikipedia page for the 2010 Toronto Municipal Election and rate the candidates they have listed. This, is what I came up with.
You will notice two "F"s. One candidate is the former last placed candidate. When I ran in the 2006 Toronto Municipal Election in Ward 19 I was able to win 511 votes in just the ward, while he did not top 200 city wide. For this reason I do not consider him a serious candidate to win. Another F on the table is "Pinball Clemons" who is not a Canadian, and therefore cannot run.
One thing that stands out is the large number of NDPers who may try to replace current mayor David Miller (also of the NDP). Many people think of Toronto as a large "NDP" municipal entity, but the reality is that Toronto has only ever had three real "NDP" mayors. John Sewell, Barbara Hall (who since has become a Liberal), and David Miller (who has been publicly supporting the Green Party recently). NDPers have much more luck getting elected to council. Due to the very crowded NDP field, some candidates, like Olivia Chow, may decide not to run at all, and this is exactly what I project her to do. Frances Lankin, while known, is not as high profile as some of the other NDP candidates. Mammoliti and even Nash suffer from this as well. The one thing the NDP has been known for is running a single candidate, and if Pantalone and/or Giambrone run, there will be great pressure on these two to drop out of the race.
On the right, Rob Ford gets a low rating because his politics is more in line with the former Canadian Alliance party, which never came close to winning even a single seat in Toronto. Denzil Minnan-Wong, while to the right of the remaining candidates, has done quite a bit of work to position himself as the unofficial "Opposition Leader" to David Miller, and that may pay off. Micheal Thompson, while not as politically astute as Minnan-Wong, is African-Canadian, and may try to tap into that voter bloc. Thompson, as well, is from Scarborough, while all the other remaining serious candidates are from either the former city of Toronto, or North York.
For the Liberals, we have a trio of candidates. Rosco Rossi has positioned himself as the "Official" Liberal Candidate, and that is very clear. This is similar to 06 when Stephen LeDrew, fresh off being the President of the Federal Liberal Party ran for mayor. While LeDrew finished with less than 2% of the vote, he did finish third. Rossi will make all the lists the media makes, and will be interviewed quite often. He could well count on 5% of the vote, but getting beyond that will be difficult. He will vacuum up all the voters looking for a grit to park their ballot with, and as a result, may harm fellow Liberal Shelly Carrol's chances. With more left of centre candidates running than right of centre candidates, Carrol could be squeezed out, and with bigger names putting their names into the hat, I don't foresee her pulling off a victory.
The final two candidates are Liberal George Smitherman and Tory John Tory (that was not a pun). The Media have decided these are the two front runners and so, as we enter the election, they are. This does not mean either of them will win. Remember that the last Federal Liberal leadership race was between Rate and Iggy, and Dion won. In Alberta, the former "third placed" candidate for the PC Party leadership is now the Premier. With such a crowded field, there is no guarantee either of these two will win.
A closer analysis of the "serious" candidates is included below.
What we end up with is the following list.
George Smitherman - Liberal
John Tory - PC
Joe Pantalone - NDP
Denzil Minnan-Wong - Conservative
Adam Giambrone - NDP
Michael Thompson - PC
Lets go one by one.
Pantalone has been in municipal politics for 25 years, and is the most experienced on the list. As David Miller's Deputy Mayor, he could be seen as the "successor" to Miller's legacy, for better or for worse. Pantalone comes across as one of the "Scary NDP" types that the right-wingers branded David Miller as. He had the highest council expense tab, but countered saying his assistants have followed him though the years and are very experienced. After 25 years, one could call him a career politician. Pantalone has the best chances of getting the unofficial NDP nod, and the other players would hope he does. He is a known quantity, and there would not be the need to "dig up dirt" on him, or invent new attack lines - the old and existing ones will work fine. Pantalone's attitude towards his job seems very similar to Miller's and as such a Pantalone victory would be more "business as usual" with regard to how Toronto has been run over the past 7 years.
Adam Giambrone is 33. Despite this relatively young age, he has managed to serve as federal New Democratic Party President, and is currently the chair of the TTC, the largest transit system in the country. Giambrone has taken his work very seriously, and has been able to remain relatively "clean", though he has had his run ins with trouble. In 2009 he sent an e-mail to a Councillor from a neighboring ward warning him to steer clear of his business. Giambrone is on the up, unlike Pantalone who is looking to put a cap on his career. A successful run for Mayor followed by a successful term could lead to the leadership of the Federal New Democrats, Provincial New Democrats, or should the province return to old voting trends, the Premier's chair. Giambrone may run regardless of what Pantalone does, and if he does he could pose a threat to the Conservatives and Liberals as he is much harder to attack. Giambrone is clearly viewed as the most pro transit of the candidates.
Michael Thompson is the city Councillor perhaps best known for suggesting that Toronto Police should be able to stop black teenagers in black neighborhoods looking for guns. Making the comment more notable is the fact that Thompson is himself black. Thompson is the least known of the others on the short list but his name does appear in the newspapers. Quite often the media will come to him for comment, or note that he is one of a group of Councillors doing something. When asked, however, most Torontonians likely could not tell you much about Michael Thompson. This lack of information can serve him well. Being the only major candidate for Mayor from Scarborough since the mega city was created over a decade ago could garner him votes from that part of the city. Being a visible minority may garner him votes from that minority, despite the fact that his tough law-and-order stances are often out of line with the city as a whole. Thompson is also not as politically astute as the others, and he may yet prove to have a Mel Lastman like tendency to speak off the cuff and get himself in hot water.
Denzil Minnan-Wong is the most right wing person on the short list. More than that, Minnan-Wong is right wing in a way that separates him from past "right wingers". Stephen Harper recently commented that he does not wish to cut transfers to persons or province, but rather, wants to cut salaries of government workers. It is this 'new right' sort of thinking that Minnan-Wong shows in his policies. Minnan-Wong focuses on tax cuts and cutting the 'gunk' out of city government. Over the past three years, Minnan-Wong has done everything in his power to become the visible opposition leader to David Miller. While right wing, Minnan-Wong is not exactly the same kind of "right wing" that tends to scare urban voters. He focuses on talking about tax cuts, not service cuts, on streamlining departments, not eliminating them. Despite this, if elected Minnan-Wong would be the most right wing mayor Toronto has had in the modern era. With solid ideas and a clear direction, Minnan-Wong is least likely to be lead around by City Council, and is the most likely to conflict with it. He comes across as the "Change" Candidate. Weather or not Toronto wants the kind of change he brings remains to be seen.
George Smitherman is gay. That is one of the first things that people will tell you about him. He also used to be Deputy Premier, Miniter of Health, and the Minister of Energy. Unfortunately, he was Deputy Premier when the HST was proposed, Miniter of Health during the C. Difficile issue, and Minister in charge of the OLG during it's recently scandals. Smitherman lies on the left of the Liberal party, and this has often put him at odds with Dalton McGunity, who lies on the right. Smitherman's biggest problem, perhaps, is that he has a tendency to come across as a little 'slick'. When the scandals of the past are taken into account, Smitherman can appear to be 'one of those Politicians only out for himself'. While this will not put him down against Tory or Patnalone, it could hurt his chances of the race boils down to Smitherman vs Giambrone, Thompson, or Minnan-Wong. Currently, Smitherman can be considered the "Front Runner".
John Tory is running again. Perhaps best known for losing, he has lost the 2007 provincial election and the 2003 municipal election. Tory currently hosts a radio show and the idea of losing yet again may push him not to run. My gut says he will, with such a crowded field he could squeak in even on a quarter of the vote. Tory is the most centrist of the candidates, but in recent years has appeared to drift to the right. Tory is known for his rivalry, real or imagined, with George Smitherman. Much as Smitherman appears as a "politician" so does Tory. Tory is a very well known quantity, and likely has more name recognition than any other candidate. Tory is also perhaps the only candidate who's endorsement could be very important. Mayoral elections in Toronto usually boil down in one of three ways. PC vs NDP. Liberal VS NDP. Or PC VS Liberal. Smitherman, endorsement or no endorsement, will lead the Liberals. Pantalone and Giambrone are well known as NDPers, an endorsement from one of the other will mean little. Even a Smitherman endorsement of some other Liberal will likely mean naught as we would likely head to a PC vs NDP race. Should Tory endorse either Minnan-Wong or Thompson, however, it would vault that candidate into a clear second place against Smitherman. Win or not, John Tory will have the most impact on the race.
To review, in summary, we have four groups of three.
Right Wingers: Minnan-Wong, Tory, Thompson
Left Wingers: Smitherman, Giambrone, Pantalone
Reformers: Giambrone, Minnan-Wong, Thompson
Politicians: Pantalone, Smitherman, Tory
So, where will the chips fall at the end of the day? Toronto has a history of electing Reformers to office, but at the same time the current top three candidates are all very "politician" like. My gut says that the Thompson campaign will fall by the wayside as things go on, and that Giambrone may not even run. If this is the case, it could well be a real four man race to the finish line, with Tory, Smitherman, Pantalone, and Minnan-Wong each having a good chance of winning, each representing one of the four main parties (with the federal and provincial Tories seen as different). Together, I project they would clear 85% of the vote, and that the winner may end up with a final total of 30%. I also see that there could be changes to the way Toronto elects its Mayors if this does happen, especially if Minnan-Wong wins.
All that being said, remember that a week is an eternity in politics. Things will happen between now and the election on October 25th that we just don't know yet. Which lesser candidates run and drop can also have a major impact on the final result. We will keep an eye on what is going on and keep you up to date.
~Teddy
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