Thursday, February 4, 2010

Toronto Projection Soup


My last post may have been a bit confusing, so I wanted to clarify.

There are blocs of voters that will vote for certain candidates of types of candidates. Therefore I wanted to make clear the following.

Presuming that Minnan-Wong, and Ford do not run, and that Pantalone drops out. Currently, I would expect the polls to realistically be at:

Smitherman - 38% (Centre Left)
Giambrone - 30% (Left)
Rossi - 30% (Centre Right)
Others - 2%

If Pantalone is in, the split between him and Giambrone would be 18-12

If Minnan-Wong or Ford runs, the split between that candidate and Rossi would be 15-15

If Minnan-Wong and Ford run, the split between the two would be 10-5 in Minnan-Wong's favour.

Sorry, no extra data today!

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