Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Liberals close in on Tories

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Full data below the fold.

With recent polls showing the Liberals and the Tories running neck and neck, it is only reasonable to expect the projections to catch up. Here are our current federal numbers.

CPC - 131 - 33.1%
Lib - 96 - 30.1%
BQ - 47 - 9.9%
NDP - 34 - 17.0%

There is a strong Liberal Trend.

So, what's happened? To answer that we need to go back, far back, to 2006. In 2006 Canadians realized they do not like the Liberal Party because of sponsorship; so they threw the red bastards out, and elected the blue ones.

In 2008, Canadians realized they do not like Stephane Dion. They really do not like Stephane Dion. Frankly, I don't blame them. That brings us to 2009. Iggy became leader. At first, Canadians were excited, but by the time the summer hit, people realized that they don't much care for Iggy either. Then came the Prorogue scandal. It's not so much that Canadians hated the idea of a proroguation (and sure some did, but in general, Harper is right, they don't care) What this scandal did was bring to the surface the fact that Canadians don't like Stephen Harper either. Over the years they've been so focused on the Liberals and their leaders, they have forgotten that they never really liked Harper in the first place. This scandal has reminded them of just why they don't like him.

So now it's a race between Harper (who they don't like) Iggy (whom they also don't like) and Layton (who they clearly don't like) It's no wonder polls have a Bloc comeback and the Greens in the double digits.

CPC - 14
Lib - 12
NDP - 6

BQ - 47
Lib - 20
CPC - 7
NDP - 1

Lib - 51
CPC - 44
NDP - 11

CPC - 22
NDP - 4
Lib - 2

CPC - 26
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

CPC - 17
NDP - 10
Lib - 9

CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

1 comment:

BenKenobi said...

Part of the reason for Dion's poor performance out west and the resurgeance of the BQ under Ignatieff has to do with Iggy being an American. Why are Quebeckers going to vote for Iggy? Is there anything that he does for them that Dion didn't already do?

This is why the gains made in Quebec under the Liberals will be drifting back to the BQ. In consequence, we would expect the Liberals to rebound somewhat out west. I really don't see why attacks like 'he's too American' would resonate at all in AB. Now, calling him a New Englander would probably be much more effective, one of the stiff professorial Harvard types who know better then you what to think and how to think it.