Alberta Polls

-

A new poll by Ekos shows the Alliance again in second place.

Province Wide
PC - 34%
WAP - 28%
ALP - 20%
NDP - 9%


Edmonton
PC - 34%
ALP - 27%
WAP - 17%
NDP - 13%

Calgary
WAP - 34%
PC - 30%
ALP - 20%
NDP - 8%

Rural
PC - 38%
WAP - 32%
ALP - 15%
NDP - 6%

More on this later, including an official projection


Sorry, no extra data today!

What-If, The next step

-

Next, I applied the same idea to more elections. I did a very educated 'guesstimation' of the 2006 and 2004 elections. I then compared it to a 4 party system by combining the PC and CA votes during the 90s. I even then compared this to 1988, 1984, 1980, and 1979 with this simple formula:

The Bloc wins 50 seats in Quebec. In 1979 and 1980 they take those seats from the Liberals, and in the 80's from the Tories. The Alliance wins all PC western seats, and half their Ontario seats. The remainder of the Ontario seats go to the Liberals. (This is very realistic when compared with what we now know) This is for the 5 party system. For a 4 party system, I only did the 50 bloc seats from above. In 1979 I re-added 6 to the Liberals to account for Social Credit.

This is my result:



I present the following arguments:

Since 2004, we've had a minority government in Ottawa. This is about 1500 days. Lester B Pearson lead about 1500 days of minority governance.
All other Prime Minister's combined, lead about 1500 days of minority governance.

Therefore, 1/3rd of our minority governments have occurred since 2004.

As is visible above, so long as the Bloc exists, we will have a minority government 9 out of 10 times. As is also visible above, only then both the Bloc and Reform/Alliance exist, will the Liberals win endless strings of government (9 out of 10). Therefore, I conclude the following.

Canada might be a "Liberal Country" but English Canada is "Conservative"

The Liberals are not the Natural Governing Party without Quebec. The Tories are. The Tories cannot, however, fill that role when split in half. The only time the Liberals have beat a unified Conservative party is either when Quebec is in their back pocket, or when there is 'something wrong' with the Conservative Movement (IE got to ditch Mulroney, we don't like Manning/Day/Harper, etc)

I also present that Minority Governments, in this country, can be damaging. While they have 'worked' over the past few years, I argue that they only add to the pre-existing stress on the country, especially where unity is concerned.

Quebecois have also shown multiple times in the past that they lean to the left, not to the right. If Harper now leads "Canada's Natural Governing Party (TM)" then this could only add to stresses on unity

Therefore. I present the following unsettling conclusion.


Canada cannot continue to exist so long as the Bloc Quebecois exists.


Am I wrong in this assessment? Perhaps. Time will tell.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Interesting What-If

-

I've decided to run an interesting what-if scenario. Over at 308.blogspot, they ran a piece on removing parties, and what would happen. See more info here Click Me! I've decided to add parties. Using the 2000 election as a base, I've decided to see what would have happened in the 2008 election, if the parties were split the way they were in 2000 (PC and CA)


NL
Lib - 5
PC - 1
NDP - 1
(2006 was used as a base for NL due to the anybody-but-harper campaign. Harris, however, was declared Elected)

PE
Lib - 4

NS
NDP - 5
Lib - 3
PC - 3 (Including Casey)

NB
Lib - 6
PC - 3
NDP - 1

ATLANTIC
Lib - 18
PC - 7
NDP - 7

(Personal note - I'm a bit shocked at this myself!)



Manitoba
CA - 7
NDP - 4
PC - 2
Lib - 1

Saskatchewan
CA - 12
Lib - 2

Alberta
CA - 25
Lib - 2
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CA - 25
NDP - 8
Lib - 3


WEST
CA - 69
NDP - 13
Lib - 8
PC - 2


Territories
Lib - 1
NDP - 1
PC - 1


Quebec
BQ - 56
Lib - 16
PC - 1
CA - 1 (in Pontiac)
NDP - 1 (in Outremont)

(See my note later)

Ontario
Lib - 62
CA - 24
NDP - 18
PC - 2



TOTAL
Lib - 105
CA - 94
BQ - 56
NDP - 40
PC - 13


And there you have it. Stephane Dion would have been popular enough to get elected Prime Minister... If the right were still divided.

Note that in Quebec I gave the Alliance the seat they would have won by the math. This happens to be the seat currently held by Andre Arthur. I feel he would have been more likely to run as an Alliance candidate than a "Conservative" one.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Provinces

<- More numbers below the fold

A little news in the provinces.
A by-election in Newfoundland has been won by a Liberal. Marshall Dean is the first new face for the Newfoundland Liberals elected in a decade.

There have been few polls in the provinces, but this also means there are a few polls in the provinces. In nearly every province, the government is due to re-elect a majority. New Brunswick, Ontario, and Quebec, however, are all very close two way races between the two main parties. We do not expect elections in any province for at least a year.


Ontario
72 - Liberal - Dalton McGunity
25 - PC - Tim Hudak
10 - NDP - Andrea Horwath
0 - Green - Frank de Jong - New leader picked Nov 15 2009 (Mike Schreiner vs None of the Above)

Quebec
67 - Liberal - Jean Charest
51 - Parti Quebecois - Pauline Marois
6 - Action Democratique - Gilles Taillon (Sylvie Roy, Leader in the Assembly)
1 - Quebec Solidarie - Amir Khadir
0 - Parti Vert - Guy Rainville

British Columbia
49 - Liberal - Gordon Campbell
35 - New Democrats - Carole James
1 - Independent - Vicki Huntington (Leans right)
0 - Green Party - Jane Sterk

Alberta
70 - PC - Ed Stelmach
9 - Liberal - David Swann
2 - New Democrats - Brian Mason
1 - Wildrose Alliance - Danielle Smith
1 - Independent - Guy Boutilier (Leans right)

Manitoba
34 - New Democrats - Greg Selinger
19 - PC - Hugh McFadyen
2 - Liberal - John Gerrard
0 - Green - James Beddome
1 - Vacant - Concordia, leans NDP

Saskatchewan
38 - Saskatchewan Party - Brad Wall
20 - New Democrats - Dwain Lingenfelter
0 - Liberals - Ryan Bater
0 - Greens - Larissa Shasko

Nova Scotia
32 - New Democrats - Darryl Dexter
11 - Liberal - Stephen McNeil
9 - PC - Karen Casey (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Greens - Ryan Watson

New Brunswick
33 - Liberal - Shawn Graham
22 - PC - David Alward
0 - New Democrats - Roger Duguay
0 - Greens - Jack MacDougall

Newfoundland and Labrador
42 - PC - Danny Williams
4 - Liberal - Yvonne Jones (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010
1 - New Democrats - Lorraine Micheal
1 - Vacant. Terra Nova (strong PC), date not yet set

Prince Edward Island
24 - Liberal - Robert Ghiz
3 - PC - Olive Craine (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Green Party - Sharon Labchuck
0 - New Democrats - James Rodd

Yukon
9 - Yukon Party - Dennis Fentie
5 - Liberal Party - Arthur Mitchell
2 - New Democrats -Elizabeth Hanson
2 - Independent - John Edzerza (Leans NDP) - Brad Cathers (Leans Yukon Party)

Harper falls from Majority

-



CPC - 152
Lib - 74
BQ - 49
NDP - 33

No commentary

Sorry, no extra data today!

Provinces

-

We got it all:


Ontario
72 - Liberal - Dalton McGunity
25 - PC - Tim Hudak
10 - NDP - Andrea Horwath
0 - Green - Frank de Jong - New leader picked Nov 15 2009 (Mike Schreiner vs None of the Above)

Quebec
67 - Liberal - Jean Charest
51 - Parti Quebecois - Pauline Marois
6 - Action Democratique - Gilles Taillon (Sylvie Roy, Leader in the Assembly)
1 - Quebec Solidarie - Amir Khadir
0 - Parti Vert - Guy Rainville

British Columbia
49 - Liberal - Gordon Campbell
35 - New Democrats - Carole James
1 - Independent - Vicki Huntington (Leans right)
0 - Green Party - Jane Sterk

Alberta
70 - PC - Ed Stelmach
9 - Liberal - David Swann
2 - New Democrats - Brian Mason
1 - Wildrose Alliance - Danielle Smith
1 - Independent - Guy Boutilier (Leans right)

Manitoba
34 - New Democrats - Greg Selinger
19 - PC - Hugh McFadyen
2 - Liberal - John Gerrard
0 - Green - James Beddome
1 - Vacant - Concordia, leans NDP

Saskatchewan
38 - Saskatchewan Party - Brad Wall
20 - New Democrats - Dwain Lingenfelter
0 - Liberals - Ryan Bater
0 - Greens - Larissa Shasko

Nova Scotia
32 - New Democrats - Darryl Dexter
11 - Liberal - Stephen McNeil
9 - PC - Karen Casey (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Greens - Ryan Watson

New Brunswick
33 - Liberal - Shawn Graham
22 - PC - David Alward
0 - New Democrats - Roger Duguay
0 - Greens - Jack MacDougall

Newfoundland and Labrador
42 - PC - Danny Williams
3 - Liberal - Yvonne Jones (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010
1 - New Democrats - Lorraine Micheal
2 - Vacant. Terra Nova (strong PC), date not yet set, and The Straits and White Bay North (Strong PC) October 27

Prince Edward Island
24 - Liberal - Robert Ghiz
3 - PC - Olive Craine (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Green Party - Sharon Labchuck
0 - New Democrats - James Rodd

Yukon
9 - Yukon Party - Dennis Fentie
5 - Liberal Party - Arthur Mitchell
2 - New Democrats -Elizabeth Hanson
2 - Independent - John Edzerza (Leans NDP) - Brad Cathers (Leans Yukon Party)



Sorry, no extra data today!

Something New

-

Wanted to give notice that I am going to create something new for everyone.

I am going to create a small table so that I can display riding by riding results easily, rather than having to copy it as in my other post showing all the votes.

The up side is that I can do all 308 ridings in a single image.
The down side is that margins of victory will not be clear.

After I create this I will attempt to update it to show the margin.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Projection Update

-

CPC - 155
Lib - 74
BQ - 46
NDP - 33

No commentary


Sorry, no extra data today!

By popular demand, Riding by riding

<- Click here to see the full post



What you see above you recognize, this is the standard posting we make, showing the province by province results. What you might not know is that with each and every projection, our system, the ElectoMatic, projects each and every riding. I've had a request to show some of these, so I decided to show them all. Below the fold is our current riding by riding projections, based on the most recent polling data, for all 308 ridings across the country.

(click on images to zoom in if needed)
(click on post title to expand post if "read more" button is not visible)

Tories take over 2 million from taxpayers

-

The Conservative Party has taken $2,602,581 from taxpayers this month.

But its no biggie the Liberals took $1,815,230

The NDP took $1,256,701, the Bloc $689,478, and the Greens $468,455.

More than that, they'll do it again in January!

Its the quarterly allowances each party gets every 4 months based on the number of votes they received in the last election. Here is the Elections Canada webpage on it
http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=pol&document=qua2009&dir=pol/qua&lang=e


Sorry, no extra data today!

Taillon elected leader of the ADQ

-

By 2 votes if you can believe it.

The party had a pathetic 28% turnout of members for their 2-day long phone in vote. If three quarters of your own members don't even bother to vote for leader, you have a pretty big problem. If those who do vote are so divided that one person, a single person, voting for one candidate and not another could change the race, then you have another problem.

Taillon has cancer, something that became an issue earlier in the race when his opponent suggested he be unable to lead because of it. He also 'quit' the national assembly by running in a riding that the ADQ could not have won, even in the best circumstances. Why on earth he wants to lead the party is beyond me. Beyond that, a former MNA quit upon hearing the news, and another one criticized her fresh new leader. This is not what a party able to win does, even Dion did not have such sharp criticisms this early, or ever.

Dare I say that the ADQ has been seriously harmed by this entire adventure. I would not say it impossible for the party to fall to 5th place in the polls, and even remain there though a General Election. I do, however, think they might be able to hold on to a seat or two by the skin of their teeth even if such a 5th placed disaster happens.

The long story short here is that the ADQ is 'toast' for the next half decade.


Sorry, no extra data today!

New Provincial Leaders pt2

-

So what does all of this mean? Well much of it was expected. Greg Selinger was expected to win, and he is not expected to change much. The only real difference is a new face and name. Remember, though, that this government has served for 3 terms, and there is a history of long-time and popular premiers resigning and being replaced, only to have their party bomb in the following election. It's not a poor reflection on the new leader, but rather that voters grow tired of a party ofter time. Weather the Manitoba NDP is going to suffer this fate is as of yet unknown. Selinger is likely not going to suddenly take hold of the imagination of regular Manitobans, he's a known face (he was finance minister) and a his party is a known quantity. His best bet at winning the next election is to convince Manitobans that he and his party have done a good job and deserve to be re-elected. Alternatively, he can try to scare the voters away from the PC Party. This will be difficult at best as the Manitoba PC Party is one of the most moderate provincial PC parties in the country.

Smith being elected leader of the Wildrose Alliance is bigger news. Earlier in the race, citing trusted sources, there was a report that as many as 10 PC MLAs would cross the floor to sit with the Alliance if Smith won the leadership. With or without Smith, the Alliance made waves when they won a by-election in Calgary, putting former leader Paul Hinman back into the house. Hinman won election in 2005 and was the only Alliance candidate to do so, he then served as leader until yesterday. This was a clear signal that the party is not going away. Alberta has had many one-shot wonders. Parties have been known to come and go, but Hinman's win shows that the Alliance just might have some real staying power.

Lets examine what happens if the defections take place. First, this would mean the WAP now has 11 seats, more than the Liberal's 9. Hinman (presumably) would then become the new Leader of the Opposition, at least until Smith can find a seat somewhere. There is then the question of what the single independent member does. If he joins, it could make for 12 members in the Alliance, but then again he might be one of the so-called 10. Chances are, however, that not a full 10 will switch, if any at all. If 8 members defect to the WAP, they would tie with the Liberals at 9, but due to precedence, the Liberals would remain the official opposition. If 1 member defects, they would tie with the NDP, but remain in 4th place. If these threats are true, there is a good chance that the number of defectors will in fact be between 2 and 8. There is also the possibility of a passive defection. That is a member resigns his seat in a riding that the Alliance could win, allowing Smith a way into the legislature.

At this point, all we have is a hypothetical threat, and a single poll. What we do know is that the Alliance has not vanished from the Alberta landscape. What that means, however, is undefined at this time.


Sorry, no extra data today!

New Provincial Leaders

-

Breaking news (from twitter) that Danielle Smith has won the Wildrose Alliance leadership in Alberta.

Also, Greg Selinger will be the new Premier of Manitoba for the NDP

Analysis on what this means to come later tonight



Sorry, no extra data today!

Tories up in Quebec

-

A number of successive polls have now shown the Tories up in quebec. This is part of the reason why the party has managed to break the 40% barrier.

CPC - 161
Lib - 74
BQ - 46
NDP - 27


Sorry, no extra data today!

Harper still at Majority levels

-

CPC - 159
Lib - 75
BQ - 48
NDP - 26

The Ekos poll we added also shows the Tories polling ahead of the Liberals and NDP, even when combined. Our official projection, however, which has a poll-average dampener, still shows a 4 point lead for the latter.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Update Schedule

-

As it is more and more clear that we will not have an election within the new few weeks, I am going to pull back our update schedule. We will no longer update every day, especially when there are no polls.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tories Clinging to Majority

-

Just as Ignatieff regretted his decision not to push for an election in the spring, Harper may regret his decision not to go to the polls this fall. The Tories are now clinging to a majority by a single seat, and the trendline has stabilized. There is plenty of room for the opposition to bounce back

CPC - 155
Lib - 78
BQ - 48
NDP - 27


Sorry, no extra data today!

Thanksgiving

-

Happy Thanksgiving


Sorry, no extra data today!

Alberta Polls

-

A recent poll was taken of provincial parties in Alberta, asking which party people would vote for if an election was held today. Here were the results:

Progressive Conservative: 38.4%
Wildrose Alliance: 21.5%
Alberta Liberal: 20.5%
NDP: 10.7%
Other: 8.5%

But what would all this mean as seats? Here is a rough translation:

PC - 64
Lib - 9
WAP - 6
NDP - 4

Why would be PC Party remain so strong?
Well, for one thing, the decrease in the PC vote from the election to today (about 75%) is the same as the decrease in the Liberal vote. That means in any one-on-one contest between the two parties, the winner last time should win this time. The NDP is up, but their results last time were too spread out to win more than 4 seats. The Wildrose Alliance, meanwhile, is up 3 fold. Despite that, there are only 6 ridings I could find where the Alliance result last time could beat the PC result, even with a 3x inflation, and even with the Tories fighting at 3/4th strength. This should, however, put the WAP in second place in a clear majority of ridings all across the province, with the exception of Edmonton and parts of Calgary.


Sorry, no extra data today!

No posting today

-

Slow news weekend, no posting for today


Sorry, no extra data today!

What do you do in your spare time?

-

What do you do in your spare time?
Me, I play a game called Diplomacy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_(game)
You can play in person, or online. I do the latter

This is the website I recommend personally:
http://www.dipbounced.com/


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tories remain in Majority territory

-





Sorry, no extra data today!

Provinces again

<- Details below the fold

An update to my earlier post on the provinces.

First, coming elections.

Yukon - unknown 2010 (no interest in fixed dates)
New Brunswick - September 27 2010 (Fixed election dates)
Prince Edward Island - October 3 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Manitoba - October 4 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Ontario - October 6 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Newfoundland - October 11 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Saskatchewan - November 7 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Alberta - unknown 2012 (has rejected the idea of fixed dates)
Quebec - unknown 2012 (no interest in fixed dates)
British Columbia - May 14 2013 (Fixed election dates)
Nova Scotia - unknown 2013 (possibly looking towards fixed dates)

Next, provinces, below the fold. There are a few leadership elections (AB WAP, MB NDP, ON GRN) within the next few weeks, as well as by-elections (NS, NL, possibly MB) within that time span.





Ontario
72 - Liberal - Dalton McGunity
25 - PC - Tim Hudak
10 - NDP - Andrea Horwath
0 - Green - Frank de Jong - New leader picked Nov 15 2009

Quebec
67 - Liberal - Jean Charest
51 - Parti Quebecois - Pauline Marois
6 - Action Democratique - Sylvie Roy (Interim) New Leader picked Feb 2010
1 - Quebec Solidarie - Amir Khadir
0 - Parti Vert - Guy Rainville

British Columbia
49 - Liberal - Gordon Campbell
35 - New Democrats - Carole James
1 - Independent - Vicki Huntington (Leans right)
0 - Green Party - Jane Sterk

Alberta
70 - PC - Ed Stelmach
9 - Liberal - David Swann
2 - New Democrats - Brian Mason
1 - Wildrose Alliance - Paul Hinman - New leader picked October 17 2009
1 - Independent - Guy Boutilier (Leans right)

Manitoba
34 - New Democrats - Gary Doer - New leader picked October 17 2009 (Steve Ashton or Greg Selinger) We expect Selinger to win.
19 - PC - Hugh McFadyen
2 - Liberal - John Gerrard
0 - Green - James Beddome
1 - Vacant - Concordia? - Can find no official information indicating the riding is indeed vacant. Only news reports.

Saskatchewan
38 - Saskatchewan Party - Brad Wall
20 - New Democrats - Dwain Lingenfelter
0 - Liberals - Ryan Bater
0 - Greens - Larissa Shasko

Nova Scotia
31 - New Democrats - Darryl Dexter
11 - Liberal - Stephen McNeil
8 - PC - Karen Casey (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Greens - Ryan Watson
2 - Vacant - Antogonish and Inverness (3-way toss ups) Oct 20

New Brunswick
33 - Liberal - Shawn Graham
22 - PC - David Alward
0 - New Democrats - Roger Duguay
0 - Greens - Mike Milligan (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010

Newfoundland and Labrador
42 - PC - Danny Williams
3 - Liberal - Yvonne Jones (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010
1 - New Democrats - Lorraine Micheal
2 - Vacant. Terra Nova (strong PC), date not yet set, and The Straits and White Bay North (Strong PC) October 27

Prince Edward Island
24 - Liberal - Robert Ghiz
3 - PC - Olive Craine (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Green Party - Sharon Labchuck
0 - New Democrats - James Rodd

Yukon
9 - Yukon Party - Dennis Fentie
5 - Liberal Party - Arthur Mitchell
2 - New Democrats -Elizabeth Hanson
2 - Independent - John Edzerza (Leans NDP) - Brad Cathers (Leans Yukon Party)

Defection story grows. Just a bit.

-

It's made it though one news cycle, at least on the blogosphere. So who will it be?

If it's anyone, it will be 1 or more of these 6

Gurbax Singh Malhi
Joe Volpe
Paul Szabo
Albina Guarnieri
Jim Karygiannis
John Cannis

If I was a betting man, I'd bet on Szabo, Guarnieri, and Karygiannis



Sorry, no extra data today!