Riding by Riding (Prairies)

MANITOBA - CPC 9 -- NDP 5 -- Lib 2
CPC - Brandon-Souris
CPC - Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia
Lib - Churchill
CPC - Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
NDP - Elmwood-Transcona
CPC - Kildonan-St. Paul
CPC - Portage-Lisgar
CPC - Provencher
CPC - Saint Boniface
CPC - Selkirk-Interlake
NDP - Winnipeg Centre
NDP - Winnipeg North
CPC - Winnipeg South
Lib - Winnipeg South Centre

SASKATCHEWAN - CPC 11 -- Lib 1 -- NDP 2
CPC - Battlefords-Lloydminster
CPC - Blackstrap
CPC - Cypress Hills-Grasslands
CPC - Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
NDP - Palliser
CPC - Prince Albert
CPC - Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
CPC - Regina-Qu'Appelle
CPC - Saskatoon-Humboldt
NDP - Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
CPC - Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
CPC - Souris-Moose Mountain
Lib - Wascana
CPC - Yorkton-Melville

ALBERTA - CPC 28
CPC - Calgary Centre
CPC - Calgary Centre-North
CPC - Calgary East
CPC - Calgary Northeast
CPC - Calgary Southeast
CPC - Calgary Southwest
CPC - Calgary West
CPC - Calgary-Nose Hill
CPC - Crowfoot
CPC - Edmonton Centre
CPC - Edmonton East
CPC - Edmonton-Leduc
CPC - Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
CPC - Edmonton-Sherwood Park
CPC - Edmonton-Spruce Grove
CPC - Edmonton-St. Albert
CPC - Edmonton-Strathcona
CPC - Fort McMurray-Athabasca
CPC - Lethbridge
CPC - Macleod
CPC - Medicine Hat
CPC - Peace River
CPC - Red Deer
CPC - Vegreville-Wainwright
CPC - Westlock-St. Paul
CPC - Wetaskiwin
CPC - Wild Rose
CPC - Yellowhead

Subtotal
CPC - 48
NDP - 7
Lib - 3

Riding by Riding (Quebec)

QUEBEC - BQ 51 -- Lib 14 -- CPC 7 -- NDP 1 -- IND 1 -- TCTC 1
BQ - Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
BQ - Abitibi-Témiscamingue
Lib - Ahuntsic
BQ - Alfred-Pellan
BQ - Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel
BQ - Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Bécancour
CPC - Beauce
BQ - Beauharnois-Salaberry
BQ - Beauport-Limoilou
BQ - Berthier-Maskinongé
Lib - Bourassa
BQ - Brome-Missisquoi
Lib - Brossard-La Prairie
BQ - Chambly-Borduas
BQ - Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles
BQ - Châteauguay-Saint-Constant
BQ - Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
BQ - Compton-Stanstead
BQ - Drummond
BQ - Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
BQ - Gatineau
BQ - Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
BQ - Hochelaga
Lib - Honoré-Mercier
TCTC - Hull-Aylmer ** 3 way race.
BQ - Jeanne-Le Ber
BQ - Joliette
BQ - Jonquière-Alma
BQ - La Pointe-de-l'Île
Lib - Lac-Saint-Louis
Lib - LaSalle-Émard
BQ - Laurentides-Labelle
BQ - Laurier-Sainte-Marie
BQ - Laval
Lib - Laval-Les Îles
CPC - Lévis-Bellechasse
BQ - Longueuil-Pierre-Boucher
BQ - Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
BQ - Louis-Hébert
CPC - Louis-Saint-Laurent
BQ - Manicouagan
BQ - Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
CPC - Mégantic-L'Érable
BQ - Montcalm
BQ - Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup
BQ - Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord
Lib - Mount Royal
Lib - Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine
NDP - Outremont
Lib - Papineau
Lib - Pierrefonds-Dollard
CPC - Pontiac
IND - Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier
BQ - Québec
BQ - Repentigny
BQ - Richmond-Arthabaska
BQ - Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques
BQ - Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
BQ - Rivière-du-Nord
CPC - Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean
BQ - Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie
BQ - Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert
BQ - Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot
BQ - Saint-Jean
BQ - Saint-Lambert
Lib - Saint-Laurent-Cartierville
Lib - Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel
BQ - Saint-Maurice-Champlain
BQ - Shefford
BQ - Sherbrooke
BQ - Terrebonne-Blainville
BQ - Trois-Rivières
BQ - Vaudreuil-Soulanges
BQ - Verchères-Les Patriotes
Lib - Westmount-Ville-Marie

Riding by Riding (Atlantic)

NEWFOUDNLAND - Lib 6 -- NDP 1
Lib - Avalon
Lib - Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
Lib - Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
Lib - Labrador
Lib - Random-Burin-St. George's
NDP - St. John's East
Lib - St. John's South-Mount Pearl

PEI - Lib 4
Lib - Cardigan
Lib - Charlottetown
Lib - Egmont
Lib - Malpeque

NOVA SCOTIA - Lib 6 -- NDP 3 -- Grn 1 -- IND 1
Lib - Cape Breton-Canso
Grn - Central Nova
IND - Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
Lib - Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
NDP - Halifax
Lib - Halifax West
Lib - Kings-Hants
NDP - Sackville-Eastern Shore
NDP - South Shore-St. Margaret's
Lib - Sydney-Victoria
Lib - West Nova

NEW BRUNSWICK - Lib 7 -- CPC 2 -- NDP 1
NDP - Acadie-Bathurst
Lib - Beauséjour
Lib - Fredericton
CPC - Fundy Royal
Lib - Madawaska-Restigouche
Lib - Miramichi
Lib - Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
CPC - New Brunswick Southwest
Lib - Saint John
Lib - Tobique-Mactaquac


Subtotal:
Lib 23
NDP 5
CPC 2
Grn 1 (Yes, we have May winning her seat)
IND 1

Final Raw Numbers

Note, these are our final "raw" numbers, not our final numbers, those will come out within the next 24 hours.


NATIONAL
CPC - 129
Lib - 86
BQ - 51
NDP - 39
Grn - 1
IND - 2

Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 24
NDP - 8
Lib - 4


Alberta
CPC - 28

Prairies
CPC - 20
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

Ontario
CPC - 47
Lib - 39
NDP - 20

Quebec
BQ - 51
Lib - 15
CPC - 7
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Atlantic
Lib - 23
NDP - 5
CPC - 2
IND - 1
Grn - 1

Where is our update?

I'm delaying it in the hopes that Nanos comes out with a 2pm poll today as they normally do. Our update will therefore be at 2:30 eastern. We will then comb over the ridings and reduce our TCTC ridings by a significant number.

Riding by Riding projections

CPC 100 -- Lib 70 -- BQ 44 -- NDP 23 -- IND 1 -- TCTC 69



NEWFOUDNLAND - Lib 5 -- NDP 1 -- TCTC 1
TCTC - Avalon
Lib - Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
Lib - Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
Lib - Labrador
Lib - Random-Burin-St. George's
NDP - St. John's East
Lib - St. John's South-Mount Pearl

PEI - Lib 3 -- TCTC 1
Lib - Cardigan
Lib - Charlottetown
TCTC - Egmont
Lib - Malpeque

NOVA SCOTIA - Lib 5 -- NDP 2 -- TCTC 4
Lib - Cape Breton-Canso
TCTC - Central Nova
TCTC - Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
Lib - Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
NDP - Halifax
Lib - Halifax West
Lib - Kings-Hants
NDP - Sackville-Eastern Shore
TCTC - South Shore-St. Margaret's
Lib - Sydney-Victoria
TCTC - West Nova

NEW BRUNSWICK - Lib 4 -- CPC 2 -- NDP 1 -- TCTC 3
NDP - Acadie-Bathurst
Lib - Beauséjour
Lib - Fredericton
CPC - Fundy Royal
TCTC - Madawaska-Restigouche
Lib - Miramichi
Lib - Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
CPC - New Brunswick Southwest
TCTC - Saint John
TCTC - Tobique-Mactaquac

QUEBEC - BQ 46 -- Lib 11 -- CPC 5 -- NDP 1 -- IND 1 -- TCTC 11
BQ - Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
BQ - Abitibi-Témiscamingue
TCTC - Ahuntsic
BQ - Alfred-Pellan
BQ - Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel
BQ - Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Bécancour
CPC - Beauce
BQ - Beauharnois-Salaberry
TCTC - Beauport-Limoilou
BQ - Berthier-Maskinongé
Lib - Bourassa
BQ - Brome-Missisquoi
TCTC - Brossard-La Prairie
BQ - Chambly-Borduas
TCTC - Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles
BQ - Châteauguay-Saint-Constant
BQ - Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
BQ - Compton-Stanstead
BQ - Drummond
BQ - Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
TCTC - Gatineau
BQ - Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
BQ - Hochelaga
Lib - Honoré-Mercier
TCTC - Hull-Aylmer
TCTC - Jeanne-Le Ber
BQ - Joliette
BQ - Jonquière-Alma
BQ - La Pointe-de-l'Île
Lib - Lac-Saint-Louis
Lib - LaSalle-Émard
BQ - Laurentides-Labelle
BQ - Laurier-Sainte-Marie
BQ - Laval
Lib - Laval-Les Îles
CPC - Lévis-Bellechasse
BQ - Longueuil-Pierre-Boucher
BQ - Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
TCTC - Louis-Hébert
CPC - Louis-Saint-Laurent
BQ - Manicouagan
BQ - Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
CPC - Mégantic-L'Érable
BQ - Montcalm
BQ - Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup
BQ - Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord
Lib - Mount Royal
Lib - Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine
TCTC - Outremont
TCTC - Papineau
Lib - Pierrefonds-Dollard
TCTC - Pontiac
IND - Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier
BQ - Québec
BQ - Repentigny
BQ - Richmond-Arthabaska
BQ - Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques
BQ - Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
BQ - Rivière-du-Nord
TCTC - Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean
BQ - Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie
BQ - Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert
BQ - Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot
BQ - Saint-Jean
BQ - Saint-Lambert
Lib - Saint-Laurent-Cartierville
Lib - Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel
BQ - Saint-Maurice-Champlain
BQ - Shefford
BQ - Sherbrooke
BQ - Terrebonne-Blainville
BQ - Trois-Rivières
BQ - Vaudreuil-Soulanges
BQ - Verchères-Les Patriotes
Lib - Westmount-Ville-Marie

ONTARIO - Lib 35 -- CPC 33 -- NDP 9 -- TCTC 29
Lib - Ajax-Pickering
TCTC - Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
CPC - Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
CPC - Barrie
TCTC - Beaches-East York
Lib - Bramalea-Gore-Malton
Lib - Brampton West
Lib - Brampton-Springdale
Lib - Brant
CPC - Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
CPC - Burlington
CPC - Cambridge
CPC - Carleton-Mississippi Mills
CPC - Chatham-Kent-Essex
Lib - Davenport
Lib - Don Valley East
Lib - Don Valley West
CPC - Dufferin-Caledon
CPC - Durham
Lib - Eglinton-Lawrence
CPC - Elgin-Middlesex-London
CPC - Essex
Lib - Etobicoke Centre
Lib - Etobicoke North
Lib - Etobicoke-Lakeshore
TCTC - Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
TCTC - Guelph
TCTC - Haldimand-Norfolk
CPC - Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
TCTC - Halton
NDP - Hamilton Centre
TCTC - Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
NDP - Hamilton Mountain
TCTC - Huron-Bruce
TCTC - Kenora
Lib - Kingston and the Islands
Lib - Kitchener Centre
TCTC - Kitchener-Conestoga
Lib - Kitchener-Waterloo
CPC - Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
CPC - Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
CPC - Leeds-Grenville
Lib - London North Centre
TCTC - London West
TCTC - London-Fanshawe
Lib - Markham-Unionville
Lib - Mississauga East-Cooksville
TCTC - Mississauga South
Lib - Mississauga-Brampton South
TCTC - Mississauga-Erindale
TCTC - Mississauga-Streetsville
CPC - Nepean-Carleton
TCTC - Newmarket-Aurora
CPC - Niagara Falls
CPC - Niagara West-Glanbrook
TCTC - Nickel Belt
Lib - Nipissing-Timiskaming
CPC - Northumberland-Quinte West
TCTC - Oak Ridges-Markham
TCTC - Oakville
TCTC - Oshawa
NDP - Ottawa Centre
TCTC - Ottawa South
CPC - Ottawa West-Nepean
TCTC - Ottawa-Orléans
Lib - Ottawa-Vanier
CPC - Oxford
TCTC - Parkdale-High Park
TCTC - Parry Sound-Muskoka
CPC - Perth-Wellington
CPC - Peterborough
Lib - Pickering-Scarborough East
CPC - Prince Edward-Hastings
CPC - Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
Lib - Richmond Hill
CPC - Sarnia-Lambton
NDP - Sault Ste. Marie
Lib - Scarborough Centre
Lib - Scarborough Southwest
Lib - Scarborough-Agincourt
Lib - Scarborough-Guildwood
Lib - Scarborough-Rouge River
CPC - Simcoe North
CPC - Simcoe-Grey
CPC - St. Catharines
Lib - St. Paul's
CPC - Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
Lib - Sudbury
TCTC - Thornhill
TCTC - Thunder Bay-Rainy River
TCTC - Thunder Bay-Superior North
NDP - Timmins-James Bay
Lib - Toronto Centre
NDP - Toronto-Danforth
NDP - Trinity-Spadina
Lib - Vaughan
TCTC - Welland
CPC - Wellington-Halton Hills
CPC - Whitby-Oshawa
Lib - Willowdale
NDP - Windsor West
NDP - Windsor-Tecumseh
Lib - York Centre
TCTC - York South-Weston
Lib - York West
CPC - York-Simcoe

MANITOBA - CPC 7 -- NDP 3 -- Lib 1 -- TCTC 3
CPC - Brandon-Souris
CPC - Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia
TCTC - Churchill
CPC - Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
NDP - Elmwood-Transcona
CPC - Kildonan-St. Paul
CPC - Portage-Lisgar
CPC - Provencher
TCTC - Saint Boniface
CPC - Selkirk-Interlake
NDP - Winnipeg Centre
NDP - Winnipeg North
TCTC - Winnipeg South
Lib - Winnipeg South Centre

SASKATCHEWAN - CPC 9 -- Lib 1 -- TCTC 4
CPC - Battlefords-Lloydminster
CPC - Blackstrap
CPC - Cypress Hills-Grasslands
TCTC - Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
TCTC - Palliser
CPC - Prince Albert
CPC - Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
TCTC - Regina-Qu'Appelle
CPC - Saskatoon-Humboldt
TCTC - Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
CPC - Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
CPC - Souris-Moose Mountain
Lib - Wascana
CPC - Yorkton-Melville

ALBERTA - CPC 27 -- TCTC 1
CPC - Calgary Centre
CPC - Calgary Centre-North
CPC - Calgary East
CPC - Calgary Northeast
CPC - Calgary Southeast
CPC - Calgary Southwest
CPC - Calgary West
CPC - Calgary-Nose Hill
CPC - Crowfoot
CPC - Edmonton Centre
CPC - Edmonton East
CPC - Edmonton-Leduc
CPC - Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
CPC - Edmonton-Sherwood Park
CPC - Edmonton-Spruce Grove
CPC - Edmonton-St. Albert
TCTC - Edmonton-Strathcona
CPC - Fort McMurray-Athabasca
CPC - Lethbridge
CPC - Macleod
CPC - Medicine Hat
CPC - Peace River
CPC - Red Deer
CPC - Vegreville-Wainwright
CPC - Westlock-St. Paul
CPC - Wetaskiwin
CPC - Wild Rose
CPC - Yellowhead

BRITISH COLUMBIA - CPC 17 -- NDP 5 -- Lib 4 -- TCTC 10
CPC - Abbotsford
NDP - British Columbia Southern Interior
TCTC - Burnaby-Douglas
TCTC - Burnaby-New Westminster
CPC - Cariboo-Prince George
CPC - Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
CPC - Delta-Richmond East
TCTC - Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
CPC - Fleetwood-Port Kells
CPC - Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
CPC - Kelowna-Lake Country
CPC - Kootenay-Columbia
CPC - Langley
CPC - Nanaimo-Alberni
NDP - Nanaimo-Cowichan
TCTC - New Westminster-Coquitlam
TCTC - Newton-North Delta
TCTC - North Vancouver
CPC - Okanagan-Coquihalla
CPC - Okanagan-Shuswap
TCTC - Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
CPC - Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
CPC - Prince George-Peace River
CPC - Richmond
TCTC - Saanich-Gulf Islands
NDP - Skeena-Bulkley Valley
CPC - South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
NDP - Surrey North
Lib - Vancouver Centre
NDP - Vancouver East
TCTC - Vancouver Island North
Lib - Vancouver Kingsway
Lib - Vancouver Quadra
Lib - Vancouver South
TCTC - Victoria
CPC - West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country

TERRITORIES - Lib 1 -- NDP 1 -- TCTC 1
TCTC - Nunavut
NDP - Western Arctic
Lib - Yukon

Todays raw numbers

NATIONAL
CPC - 130
Lib - 83
BQ - 54
NDP - 38
Grn - 1
IND - 2

Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 24
NDP - 8
Lib - 4


Alberta
CPC - 28

Prairies
CPC - 20
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

Ontario
CPC - 46
Lib - 41
NDP - 19

Quebec
BQ - 54
Lib - 13
CPC - 6
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Atlantic
Lib - 20
CPC - 5
NDP - 5
IND - 1
Grn - 1

RIDING BY RIDING

(note, many ridings are listed as TCTC, or, Too Close To Call. Half of these will have a prediction by tomorrow afternoon, and the other half, by sunday at noon. I do, however, reserve the right to update the list on Monday if any new polls are published)

CPC 94 -- Lib 59 -- BQ 45 -- NDP 19 -- IND 1 -- TCTC 90



NEWFOUDNLAND - Lib 5 -- NDP 1 -- TCTC 1
TCTC - Avalon
Lib - Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor
Lib - Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte
Lib - Labrador
Lib - Random-Burin-St. George's
NDP - St. John's East
Lib - St. John's South-Mount Pearl

PEI - Lib 3 -- TCTC 1
Lib - Cardigan
Lib - Charlottetown
TCTC - Egmont
Lib - Malpeque

NOVA SCOTIA - Lib 5 -- NDP 2 -- TCTC 4
Lib - Cape Breton-Canso
TCTC - Central Nova
TCTC - Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
Lib - Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
NDP - Halifax
Lib - Halifax West
Lib - Kings-Hants
NDP - Sackville-Eastern Shore
TCTC - South Shore-St. Margaret's
Lib - Sydney-Victoria
TCTC - West Nova

NEW BRUNSWICK - Lib 3 -- CPC 2 -- NDP 1 -- TCTC 4
NDP - Acadie-Bathurst
Lib - Beauséjour
TCTC - Fredericton
CPC - Fundy Royal
TCTC - Madawaska-Restigouche
Lib - Miramichi
Lib - Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
CPC - New Brunswick Southwest
TCTC - Saint John
TCTC - Tobique-Mactaquac

QUEBEC - BQ 45 -- Lib 10 -- CPC 4 -- IND 1 -- TCTC 15
BQ - Abitibi-Baie-James-Nunavik-Eeyou
BQ - Abitibi-Témiscamingue
TCTC - Ahuntsic
BQ - Alfred-Pellan
BQ - Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel
BQ - Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Bécancour
CPC - Beauce
BQ - Beauharnois-Salaberry
TCTC - Beauport-Limoilou
BQ - Berthier-Maskinongé
Lib - Bourassa
TCTC - Brome-Missisquoi
TCTC - Brossard-La Prairie
BQ - Chambly-Borduas
TCTC - Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles
BQ - Châteauguay-Saint-Constant
BQ - Chicoutimi-Le Fjord
BQ - Compton-Stanstead
BQ - Drummond
BQ - Gaspésie-Îles-de-la-Madeleine
TCTC - Gatineau
TCTC - Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
BQ - Hochelaga
Lib - Honoré-Mercier
TCTC - Hull-Aylmer
TCTC - Jeanne-Le Ber
BQ - Joliette
BQ - Jonquière-Alma
BQ - La Pointe-de-l'Île
Lib - Lac-Saint-Louis
Lib - LaSalle-Émard
BQ - Laurentides-Labelle
BQ - Laurier-Sainte-Marie
BQ - Laval
TCTC - Laval-Les Îles
CPC - Lévis-Bellechasse
BQ - Longueuil-Pierre-Boucher
BQ - Lotbinière-Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
TCTC - Louis-Hébert
CPC - Louis-Saint-Laurent
BQ - Manicouagan
BQ - Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
CPC - Mégantic-L'Érable
BQ - Montcalm
BQ - Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup
BQ - Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Côte-Nord
Lib - Mount Royal
Lib - Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine
TCTC - Outremont
TCTC - Papineau
Lib - Pierrefonds-Dollard
TCTC - Pontiac
IND - Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier
BQ - Québec
BQ - Repentigny
BQ - Richmond-Arthabaska
BQ - Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques
BQ - Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
BQ - Rivière-du-Nord
TCTC - Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean
BQ - Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie
BQ - Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert
BQ - Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot
BQ - Saint-Jean
BQ - Saint-Lambert
Lib - Saint-Laurent-Cartierville
Lib - Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel
BQ - Saint-Maurice-Champlain
BQ - Shefford
BQ - Sherbrooke
BQ - Terrebonne-Blainville
BQ - Trois-Rivières
BQ - Vaudreuil-Soulanges
BQ - Verchères-Les Patriotes
Lib - Westmount-Ville-Marie

ONTARIO - Lib 29 -- CPC 29 -- NDP 8 -- TCTC 40
TCTC - Ajax-Pickering
TCTC - Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
TCTC - Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale
TCTC - Barrie
TCTC - Beaches-East York
Lib - Bramalea-Gore-Malton
TCTC - Brampton West
Lib - Brampton-Springdale
Lib - Brant
CPC - Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
CPC - Burlington
CPC - Cambridge
CPC - Carleton-Mississippi Mills
CPC - Chatham-Kent-Essex
TCTC - Davenport
Lib - Don Valley East
Lib - Don Valley West
CPC - Dufferin-Caledon
CPC - Durham
Lib - Eglinton-Lawrence
CPC - Elgin-Middlesex-London
CPC - Essex
Lib - Etobicoke Centre
Lib - Etobicoke North
TCTC - Etobicoke-Lakeshore
TCTC - Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
TCTC - Guelph
TCTC - Haldimand-Norfolk
CPC - Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
TCTC - Halton
NDP - Hamilton Centre
TCTC - Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
NDP - Hamilton Mountain
TCTC - Huron-Bruce
TCTC - Kenora
Lib - Kingston and the Islands
Lib - Kitchener Centre
TCTC - Kitchener-Conestoga
Lib - Kitchener-Waterloo
CPC - Lambton-Kent-Middlesex
CPC - Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
CPC - Leeds-Grenville
TCTC - London North Centre
TCTC - London West
TCTC - London-Fanshawe
Lib - Markham-Unionville
Lib - Mississauga East-Cooksville
TCTC - Mississauga South
Lib - Mississauga-Brampton South
TCTC - Mississauga-Erindale
TCTC - Mississauga-Streetsville
CPC - Nepean-Carleton
TCTC - Newmarket-Aurora
CPC - Niagara Falls
CPC - Niagara West-Glanbrook
TCTC - Nickel Belt
Lib - Nipissing-Timiskaming
CPC - Northumberland-Quinte West
TCTC - Oak Ridges-Markham
TCTC - Oakville
TCTC - Oshawa
NDP - Ottawa Centre
TCTC - Ottawa South
TCTC - Ottawa West-Nepean
TCTC - Ottawa-Orléans
Lib - Ottawa-Vanier
CPC - Oxford
TCTC - Parkdale-High Park
TCTC - Parry Sound-Muskoka
CPC - Perth-Wellington
CPC - Peterborough
Lib - Pickering-Scarborough East
CPC - Prince Edward-Hastings
CPC - Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke
Lib - Richmond Hill
TCTC - Sarnia-Lambton
NDP - Sault Ste. Marie
Lib - Scarborough Centre
Lib - Scarborough Southwest
Lib - Scarborough-Agincourt
Lib - Scarborough-Guildwood
Lib - Scarborough-Rouge River
CPC - Simcoe North
CPC - Simcoe-Grey
CPC - St. Catharines
Lib - St. Paul's
CPC - Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry
TCTC - Sudbury
TCTC - Thornhill
TCTC - Thunder Bay-Rainy River
TCTC - Thunder Bay-Superior North
NDP - Timmins-James Bay
Lib - Toronto Centre
NDP - Toronto-Danforth
TCTC - Trinity-Spadina
Lib - Vaughan
TCTC - Welland
CPC - Wellington-Halton Hills
CPC - Whitby-Oshawa
Lib - Willowdale
NDP - Windsor West
NDP - Windsor-Tecumseh
Lib - York Centre
TCTC - York South-Weston
Lib - York West
CPC - York-Simcoe

MANITOBA - CPC 7 -- NDP 3 -- TCTC 4
CPC - Brandon-Souris
CPC - Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia
TCTC - Churchill
CPC - Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette
NDP - Elmwood-Transcona
CPC - Kildonan-St. Paul
CPC - Portage-Lisgar
CPC - Provencher
TCTC - Saint Boniface
CPC - Selkirk-Interlake
NDP - Winnipeg Centre
NDP - Winnipeg North
TCTC - Winnipeg South
TCTC - Winnipeg South Centre

SASKATCHEWAN - CPC 10 -- Lib 1 -- TCTC 3
CPC - Battlefords-Lloydminster
CPC - Blackstrap
CPC - Cypress Hills-Grasslands
TCTC - Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River
TCTC - Palliser
CPC - Prince Albert
CPC - Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre
CPC - Regina-Qu'Appelle
CPC - Saskatoon-Humboldt
TCTC - Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
CPC - Saskatoon-Wanuskewin
CPC - Souris-Moose Mountain
Lib - Wascana
CPC - Yorkton-Melville

ALBERTA - CPC 27 -- TCTC 1
CPC - Calgary Centre
CPC - Calgary Centre-North
CPC - Calgary East
CPC - Calgary Northeast
CPC - Calgary Southeast
CPC - Calgary Southwest
CPC - Calgary West
CPC - Calgary-Nose Hill
CPC - Crowfoot
CPC - Edmonton Centre
CPC - Edmonton East
CPC - Edmonton-Leduc
CPC - Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont
CPC - Edmonton-Sherwood Park
CPC - Edmonton-Spruce Grove
CPC - Edmonton-St. Albert
TCTC - Edmonton-Strathcona
CPC - Fort McMurray-Athabasca
CPC - Lethbridge
CPC - Macleod
CPC - Medicine Hat
CPC - Peace River
CPC - Red Deer
CPC - Vegreville-Wainwright
CPC - Westlock-St. Paul
CPC - Wetaskiwin
CPC - Wild Rose
CPC - Yellowhead

BRITISH COLUMBIA - CPC 15 -- NDP 3 -- Lib 2 -- TCTC 16
CPC - Abbotsford
NDP - British Columbia Southern Interior
TCTC - Burnaby-Douglas
TCTC - Burnaby-New Westminster
CPC - Cariboo-Prince George
CPC - Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
CPC - Delta-Richmond East
TCTC - Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca
CPC - Fleetwood-Port Kells
TCTC - Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo
CPC - Kelowna-Lake Country
CPC - Kootenay-Columbia
CPC - Langley
CPC - Nanaimo-Alberni
TCTC - Nanaimo-Cowichan
TCTC - New Westminster-Coquitlam
TCTC - Newton-North Delta
TCTC - North Vancouver
CPC - Okanagan-Coquihalla
CPC - Okanagan-Shuswap
TCTC - Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
CPC - Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam
CPC - Prince George-Peace River
TCTC - Richmond
TCTC - Saanich-Gulf Islands
NDP - Skeena-Bulkley Valley
CPC - South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale
TCTC - Surrey North
Lib - Vancouver Centre
NDP - Vancouver East
TCTC - Vancouver Island North
TCTC - Vancouver Kingsway
TCTC - Vancouver Quadra
Lib - Vancouver South
TCTC - Victoria
CPC - West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country

TERRITORIES - Lib 1 -- NDP 1 -- TCTC 1
TCTC - Nunavut
NDP - Western Arctic
Lib - Yukon

Today's story; Quebec, 2 Greens

NATIONAL
CPC - 129
Lib - 84
BQ - 52
NDP - 39
Grn - 2 (highest ever)
IND - 2

Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 25
NDP - 7
Lib - 4


Alberta
CPC - 28

Prairies
CPC - 20
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

Ontario
CPC - 44
Lib - 40
NDP - 21
Grn - 1 (Guelph)

Quebec
BQ - 52 (Highest Bloc numbers yet)
Lib - 15
CPC - 6 (These numbers have been steady. The tories will likely lose 5 seats in the province)
NDP - 1 (NDP is edging back on Hull and Gatineau)
IND - 1

Atlantic
Lib - 20
CPC - 5
NDP - 5
IND - 1
Grn - 1

Thursdays Numbers

Tomorrow's numbers and Saturday's numbers will be more robust. Sunday at noon the final projections come out.



National:
CPC - 125
Lib - 89
BQ - 51
NDP - 40
IND - 2
Grn - 1


Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 24
NDP - 7
Lib - 4
Grn - 1 (Saanich)

Alberta
CPC - 28

Prairies
CPC - 20
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

Ontario
Lib - 46
CPC - 39
NDP - 21

Quebec
BQ - 51
Lib - 16
CPC - 6
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Atlantic
Lib - 19
CPC - 6
NDP - 6
IND - 1
Grn - 1

New numbers

No commentary

National:
CPC - 127
Lib - 86
BQ - 51
NDP - 41
IND - 2
Grn - 1


Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 23
NDP - 8
Lib - 4
Grn - 1 (Saanich)

Alberta
CPC - 28

Prairies
CPC - 20
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

Ontario
Lib - 46
CPC - 39
NDP - 21

Quebec
BQ - 51
Lib - 16
CPC - 6
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Atlantic
Lib - 15
CPC - 10
NDP - 6
IND - 1

Liberals closing in on government

National:
CPC - 123
Lib - 93
BQ - 50
NDP - 40
IND - 2


Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 26
NDP - 9
Lib - 1

Alberta
CPC - 28

Prairies
CPC - 20
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

Ontario
Lib - 52
CPC - 34
NDP - 20

Quebec
BQ - 50
Lib - 17
CPC - 6
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Atlantic
Lib - 18
CPC - 8 (May is edging back on MacKay)
NDP - 5
IND - 1

* Note that we uurge caution with these daily-tracking numbers. Due to our three-firm average, these numbers can swing wildly. These numbers will be factored into our averages for Friday, which will be more robust. Saturday there will be no projections as we will be working towards our final projections expected to be posted by Sunday at Noon. This will include a riding by riding list, from east to west.

Nanos and the Polls

We think we've discovered why Nanos' numbers are so different from the other polling firms. It appears Nanos asks the voter "Who are you voting for?" and not "Will you be voting Green, Liberal, Conservative..." etc. This would explain why the Green and Liberal numbers are so very different. It is highly likely that many people who blurt out Liberal to one pollster, would say "Green" to another pollster if presented with that option.

What impact this has on the final results remains to be seen. There is a chance that those who blurt out Liberal will indeed vote that way, as they do not consider the Greens to be a "real" option. There is also the chance that when they get into the voting booth and see "Green Party" on the ballot, that they may vote that way.

We are reserving judgment on the issue and will continue to use our new three-firm poll average. New numbers will be out shortly.

NDP at 21 in Ontario

Which 21?

Hamilton Cen
Timmins-JB
Wind Wes
TorDan
TriSpa
Wind Tec
Parkdale (by a hair)
Sault Ste Marie
Nickel Belt
Hamilton M
Ott C
Hamilton E
Beaches
TB Superior
London Fan
Algoma
TB Rainy
Oshawa
Sudbury
Welland
Kenora

Fresh Numbers

We nabbed the newest Nanos poll the moment it came out. Here are the fresh projections for today.


National:
CPC - 121
Lib - 88
BQ - 51
NDP - 45
IND - 2


Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 20
NDP - 13
Lib - 3

Alberta
CPC - 28

Prairies
CPC - 20
Lib - 4
NDP - 4

Ontario
Lib - 43 (Turner in)
CPC - 42 (Khan out)
NDP - 21 (List will be provided later)

Quebec
BQ - 51
Lib - 15
CPC - 6
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Atlantic
Lib - 22
NDP - 5
CPC - 4
IND - 1

Polls Pt2

Here are two examples:

In Ontario, Harris has the Liberals and Tories tied at 31% with the NDP at 20% and the Greens at 17%. Nanos meanshile has the two main parties hovering around 36% (one up a point, one down) The NDP at 22%, and the Greens at 7%

In Quebec, Harris says the Bloc has 37, the Tories 22, the Liberals 17, the NDP 13, and the Greens 8. Nanos has the Bloc at 41, the Liberals at 28, the Tories at 16, the NDP at 10, and the Greens at 6

Nanos reports to adjust numbers based on the census data. This can be a good thing or a bad thing. For example, it's known that younger people generally vote less often, adjusting them 'out' might make your poll more accurate, on the flip side if your 'adjustment' is a little off, so will your poll.

For this coming week we will be averaging Nanos, Harris, and Ekos polls to attempt to get a more clear picture.

Polls

We have this weekend a very strange circumstance.
Harris (Decima) has the Liberals at 22% nationwide, and the Greens at 13%.
Meanwhile Nanos (SES) has the Liberals at 30% and the Greens at 7% This is beyond the margin of error and something is going on here. I will attempt to investigate to get to the bottom of this strange occurance.

Ridings

What ridings could some of the parties expect to pick up? In particular this focuses on the Greens and the NDP which are polling in near uncharted territory during a writ period.

Lets start with the Greens. There are really only 4 ridings that have a real shot at. They are, in no particular order:
Nunavut, Guelph, Saanich--Gulf Islands, Central Nova
To win these four they will need to get around 14% of the national vote. If they want to win many more than these four they will need to get more than that, and this is something that is just not lining up for them at the moment. What if it did?
Ottawa Centre, Calgary Centre, Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound, Calgary Centre-North, Dufferin--Caledon, Perth--Wellington
all of a sudden become vulnerable. Currently, we dont see the Greens raising in the polls far enough to make any of this possible. We also feel the local campaign in Nunavut favours the Conservatives. The Greens will end this election with between 0 and 3 seats.

How about the NDP?
First, in Quebec. They likely will win Outremont. Both Hull--Aylmer and Gatineau are also under attack from the NDP, but the party needs to pick it up to win here. At a time they appeared ready to take more, but with current poll numbers that seems unlikely.
Edmonton Strathcona is in danger of falling to the NDP, as are numerous ridings in Saskatchewan and BC, where the party has historically been strong. The NDP also appears ready to take St.John's east. Election results in Nova Scotia this election may be similar to 1997 for the NDP. In New Brunswick there are limited opportunities, but Madawaksa could fall. What about Ontario? The NDP could really pick up seats, but where? Places like Algoma, Thunder Bay, Oshawa, Davenport, Sudbury, Welland, Kenora, Peterborough, London, Essex, Chatham, Guelph, and even Ancaster (in that order) could be vulnerable. St. Catharines has been called Canada's modern bellwether. If the NDP is truly to take the official opposition, expect them to take that seat.

Update

Please note that we will continue our daily tracking on Monday and follow it though until our final projection at noon on the 13th.

National:
CPC - 138
Lib - 78
BQ - 51
NDP - 38
Grn - 1
IND - 2


Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

British Columbia
CPC - 22
NDP - 11
Lib - 3

Alberta
CPC - 27
NDP - 1 (Strathcona, by a marginal margin)

Prairies
CPC - 20
Lib - 5
NDP - 3

Ontario
CPC - 51
Lib - 37
NDP - 18
* (Greens within striking distance in Guelph)

Quebec
BQ - 51
Lib - 12
CPC - 10
NDP - 1
IND - 1

Atlantic
Lib - 20
CPC - 7
NDP - 3
Grn - 1
IND - 1

National Numbers

We are still working on our new calculation system, but we do have new national numbers.


CPC-148
Lib-72
BQ-48
NDP-38
IND-2
Grn-0

Update by monday night

I'm getting the new "projection engine" up and running as well. We will now be able to make projections that are more accurate than ever before.

Please accept my apologies.

I am having personal problems right now, and have had limited time to update this blog. Please accept my apologies. An update should be here by Friday at the latest

Liberals down, NDP up

We are still working on our new calculation sheets, but I can tell you now that in general, the Liberals are down and the NDP is up. This is likely only a minor difference of a few seats, but something is going on in Quebec. Exactly what, remains to be seen.

Methodology Update

Due to radically differing polls (Nanos showing the Liberals making a shocking recovery, and Angus Reid showing them skirting the lowest poll numbers ever) we are going to re-tool our methodology. The new weighting system will be designed to weight polling firms more equally. Currently, we feel we are over-weighting firms that post polls often. This will also allow us to add pollsters who do more limited polls (like Leger in Quebec)