Thanks to Professor Werner Antweiler from the Saunder School of Business at UBC, we now have the proper redistributed riding data for the BC 2009 election, and I'm happy to announce, we will officially be following it, with an official projection to come before the polls close on election night.
The good professor and UBC are well known for running this popular projection page http://esm.ubc.ca/forecast.php which is used by many in the field of election projections as a useful first stop resource. Our own ElectoMatic shares many of the same assumptions that the UBC ESM forecasters do.
Monday, April 20, 2009
Friday, April 17, 2009
New Poll
We've added the new ekos poll to our matrix, as well we've re-balanced the matrix itself to 'clean' it, so to speak. Our numbers are as follows:
Lib - 123
CPC - 105
BQ - 50
NDP - 30
Sub-Regions:
Atlantic
Lib - 21
CPC - 7
NDP - 4
Quebec
BQ - 50
Lib - 21
CPC - 4
Ontario
Lib - 63
CPC - 33
NDP - 10
West
CPC - 61
Lib - 18
NDP - 16
British Columbia is where the trend is strongest. Our current numbers
CPC - 15
Lib - 11
NDP - 10
Lib - 123
CPC - 105
BQ - 50
NDP - 30
Sub-Regions:
Atlantic
Lib - 21
CPC - 7
NDP - 4
Quebec
BQ - 50
Lib - 21
CPC - 4
Ontario
Lib - 63
CPC - 33
NDP - 10
West
CPC - 61
Lib - 18
NDP - 16
British Columbia is where the trend is strongest. Our current numbers
CPC - 15
Lib - 11
NDP - 10
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Help me help you
Like me, you have likely run across website after website, attacking Elections BC for not offering a vote redistribution of the 2005 election on 2009 ridings. The reality, from my experience, is that only Elections Canada, Ontario, and Quebec does this. No website (that I know of) has these results... but we do!... sort of. Here's what I mean, take a look at this.
On the Elections BC website, a nice conversion excel file is found here:
http://www.elections.bc.ca/docs/map/redis08/Conv/2005_to_2008_Voting_Area_Conversion_Tables.xls
showing how to convert polling stations from 2005 to 2008.
So?
Well, on this web-page, also from Elections BC:
http://www.elections.bc.ca/index.php/resource-centre/reports/2005-voting-results-by-voting-area/
You can find the voting results by poll!
Say what?
Click tab ABC in the excel file. Go to the website and open "Abbotsford-Clayburn". Note near the bottom, poll number 100. Go back to the excel file, and under 2005, note "ABC100" is now poll 100 and 101 in riding ABS. There will be some overlap, but this will give you a far better idea of real party strengths in each riding than any other method would. The problem is that to calculate this (you have to do this for every single poll in the entire province really, with some exceptions*) requires quite a bit of manpower. I, sadly, do not have the time right now to do this myself. If anyone here is willing to help me do this as a joint project, please contact me at nixtuff @t hotmail d.t com and we'll see if we cannot work out something.
I'm willing to share my findings with the public, and any other website that wants to use it. Other webmasters are free to contact me if they wish.
*In some cases, chunks of polls move from one riding to another, these polls can be calculated as a single piece.
On the Elections BC website, a nice conversion excel file is found here:
http://www.elections.bc.ca/docs/map/redis08/Conv/2005_to_2008_Voting_Area_Conversion_Tables.xls
showing how to convert polling stations from 2005 to 2008.
So?
Well, on this web-page, also from Elections BC:
http://www.elections.bc.ca/index.php/resource-centre/reports/2005-voting-results-by-voting-area/
You can find the voting results by poll!
Say what?
Click tab ABC in the excel file. Go to the website and open "Abbotsford-Clayburn". Note near the bottom, poll number 100. Go back to the excel file, and under 2005, note "ABC100" is now poll 100 and 101 in riding ABS. There will be some overlap, but this will give you a far better idea of real party strengths in each riding than any other method would. The problem is that to calculate this (you have to do this for every single poll in the entire province really, with some exceptions*) requires quite a bit of manpower. I, sadly, do not have the time right now to do this myself. If anyone here is willing to help me do this as a joint project, please contact me at nixtuff @t hotmail d.t com and we'll see if we cannot work out something.
I'm willing to share my findings with the public, and any other website that wants to use it. Other webmasters are free to contact me if they wish.
*In some cases, chunks of polls move from one riding to another, these polls can be calculated as a single piece.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Info on the provinces
Province by Province:
Newfoundland is not expecting an election until 2011. There is no sign either the Liberals or NDP could knock off the Tories, who are, at this time, expected to win another large majority.
Prince Edward Island is also not expecting an election until 2011, and as above, the government is expected to retain it's majority.
New Brunswick is likely to see an election in 2010 or early 2011, and as with the above, the government is expected to win, however by a much smaller margin (though still a majority)
The Yukon could have an election by next year. Due to the political nature of the territory, any predictions would be closer to 'guesses' as personality plays a big role. Any party could potentially win, but chances are if the Government goes down it will be to the Liberals and not the NDP. If I had to 'guess' I'd put my money on a Liberal minority.
Quebec will not have an election until 2012 or 2013. Any 'predictions' this far out would also be 'guesses'. My 'guess' is a PQ majority.
Manitoba will be set for an election in 2011 or even 2012. The NDP will by this point be seen as a "tired and old" government and could well lose to the PC Party, however the current government is still popular, and it can expected to be a close race. My money is on the NDP.
Saskatchewan will also be due for an election around 2011. There is a history in this province of electing governments to a minimum of two terms, and unless the government manages to botch it, I expect this to continue.
Alberta's next election will happen around 2012. The PC Party can, again, be expected to cruise to victory with a large majority. I do, however, expect the Liberals to win a 'surprisingly' large number of seats, especially in Calgary, and potentially set themselves up for a win in 2016.
Ontario is a more interesting case. For decades it elected PC governments, mostly to majorities but some minorities, and the PC Party governed in a moderate "Red Tory" style. Since the mid 80's, however, this has not been the case. John Tory should have won the last Ontario election, but his poor campaigning lost it for him. Now the Ontario PC Party has shifted to the right yet again, while Ontarians have not indicated that they want this. There is a very good likelihood that this will push the Liberals to a third victory, one that will outlast McGunity (who is a very weak premier) If current trends continue, and nothing suggests they will not, the Ontario Liberals will become the new dynasty. This, coupled with Federal success in the provinces, will allow Ontario to take on the role abandon by Quebec in the 80's, and become the Liberal party's new "bedrock" of support.
Finally we come to the two provinces with elections coming up.
Nova Scotia has a potential for an election this spring. The Liberals are trigger happy as polls show them as the #2 party. The NDP, while quiet, would also be happy as they have been polling over 35% since the last election and would likely win a very strong minority or even a weak majority in any election. Current trends point towards a weak majority for the NDP, as voters in the province are becoming more comfortable with the idea of an NDP government (IE, it does not scare them anymore) and are likely to jump on the bandwagon and vote for the winner. The Liberals meanwhile could well supplant the PC Party as the second most popular party in the province, and become the official opposition. Should this happen, however, it will likely mean that minority governments are still in the future for this province.
BC has an election scheduled to take place in exactly one month. While individual polls have jumped about, the general trend has been stagnant since the middle of the last election. This is also a general trend that was, generally, true for most of BC's modern history. In short; the governing party is a free-market coalition of all sorts that tends to win 60% of the seats, while the main opposition, socialist in nature, wins the other 40%. This would gives us numbers of 51 and 34, and I still expect the final result to be close to this, though likely with a few more seat for the NDP.
Newfoundland is not expecting an election until 2011. There is no sign either the Liberals or NDP could knock off the Tories, who are, at this time, expected to win another large majority.
Prince Edward Island is also not expecting an election until 2011, and as above, the government is expected to retain it's majority.
New Brunswick is likely to see an election in 2010 or early 2011, and as with the above, the government is expected to win, however by a much smaller margin (though still a majority)
The Yukon could have an election by next year. Due to the political nature of the territory, any predictions would be closer to 'guesses' as personality plays a big role. Any party could potentially win, but chances are if the Government goes down it will be to the Liberals and not the NDP. If I had to 'guess' I'd put my money on a Liberal minority.
Quebec will not have an election until 2012 or 2013. Any 'predictions' this far out would also be 'guesses'. My 'guess' is a PQ majority.
Manitoba will be set for an election in 2011 or even 2012. The NDP will by this point be seen as a "tired and old" government and could well lose to the PC Party, however the current government is still popular, and it can expected to be a close race. My money is on the NDP.
Saskatchewan will also be due for an election around 2011. There is a history in this province of electing governments to a minimum of two terms, and unless the government manages to botch it, I expect this to continue.
Alberta's next election will happen around 2012. The PC Party can, again, be expected to cruise to victory with a large majority. I do, however, expect the Liberals to win a 'surprisingly' large number of seats, especially in Calgary, and potentially set themselves up for a win in 2016.
Ontario is a more interesting case. For decades it elected PC governments, mostly to majorities but some minorities, and the PC Party governed in a moderate "Red Tory" style. Since the mid 80's, however, this has not been the case. John Tory should have won the last Ontario election, but his poor campaigning lost it for him. Now the Ontario PC Party has shifted to the right yet again, while Ontarians have not indicated that they want this. There is a very good likelihood that this will push the Liberals to a third victory, one that will outlast McGunity (who is a very weak premier) If current trends continue, and nothing suggests they will not, the Ontario Liberals will become the new dynasty. This, coupled with Federal success in the provinces, will allow Ontario to take on the role abandon by Quebec in the 80's, and become the Liberal party's new "bedrock" of support.
Finally we come to the two provinces with elections coming up.
Nova Scotia has a potential for an election this spring. The Liberals are trigger happy as polls show them as the #2 party. The NDP, while quiet, would also be happy as they have been polling over 35% since the last election and would likely win a very strong minority or even a weak majority in any election. Current trends point towards a weak majority for the NDP, as voters in the province are becoming more comfortable with the idea of an NDP government (IE, it does not scare them anymore) and are likely to jump on the bandwagon and vote for the winner. The Liberals meanwhile could well supplant the PC Party as the second most popular party in the province, and become the official opposition. Should this happen, however, it will likely mean that minority governments are still in the future for this province.
BC has an election scheduled to take place in exactly one month. While individual polls have jumped about, the general trend has been stagnant since the middle of the last election. This is also a general trend that was, generally, true for most of BC's modern history. In short; the governing party is a free-market coalition of all sorts that tends to win 60% of the seats, while the main opposition, socialist in nature, wins the other 40%. This would gives us numbers of 51 and 34, and I still expect the final result to be close to this, though likely with a few more seat for the NDP.
New Projection
We have updated our trendlines and baselines and have a new projection that is as follows:
Lib - 121
CPC - 113
BQ - 49
NDP - 25
Note that we have not included the Nanos "Poll" mentioned earlier. Rather this update is based on, to put it in a simple way, "pulling" the data forward. We effectively have re-weighted polls based on date, thereby "pulling" the matrix forward in time; This has also caused it to slide further up our trendlines, and be further balanced with the baselines.
What's important is where the parties stand in the provinces. Specifically, Ontario and Quebec.
West:
CPC - 66
Lib - 15
NDP - 14
Atlantic:
Lib - 21
CPC - 7
NDP - 4
Quebec:
BQ - 49 (Trendlines favour a seat target around 48-51)
Lib - 21
CPC - 5
Ontario:
Lib - 64
CPC - 35
NDP - 7
These numbers are closer to the CPC's 2006 targets in Ontario. Here is a map of what this might look like according to our riding by riding numbers:
Lib - 121
CPC - 113
BQ - 49
NDP - 25
Note that we have not included the Nanos "Poll" mentioned earlier. Rather this update is based on, to put it in a simple way, "pulling" the data forward. We effectively have re-weighted polls based on date, thereby "pulling" the matrix forward in time; This has also caused it to slide further up our trendlines, and be further balanced with the baselines.
What's important is where the parties stand in the provinces. Specifically, Ontario and Quebec.
West:
CPC - 66
Lib - 15
NDP - 14
Atlantic:
Lib - 21
CPC - 7
NDP - 4
Quebec:
BQ - 49 (Trendlines favour a seat target around 48-51)
Lib - 21
CPC - 5
Ontario:
Lib - 64
CPC - 35
NDP - 7
These numbers are closer to the CPC's 2006 targets in Ontario. Here is a map of what this might look like according to our riding by riding numbers:
New "Poll"
Nanos put out a poll - Click Here - that identifies "second place" support for the parties. It is an interesting read for that alone; However at the bottom it lists the number of answers for the first question - which party do you support. The national breakdown is as follows:
Lib - 36%
CPC - 32%
NDP - 13%
BQ - 10%
Grn - 8%
Compare this to the most recent poll form Strategic Counsel:
Lib - 34%
CPC - 32%
NDP - 15%
BQ - 10%
Grn - 9%
And the last poll from Nanos, 3 weeks ago:
Lib - 36%
CPC - 33%
NDP - 13%
BQ - 10%
Grn - 8%
It seems that the plateau continues.
Lib - 36%
CPC - 32%
NDP - 13%
BQ - 10%
Grn - 8%
Compare this to the most recent poll form Strategic Counsel:
Lib - 34%
CPC - 32%
NDP - 15%
BQ - 10%
Grn - 9%
And the last poll from Nanos, 3 weeks ago:
Lib - 36%
CPC - 33%
NDP - 13%
BQ - 10%
Grn - 8%
It seems that the plateau continues.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
More on the last poll
After taking a look at the official PDF file for the poll we spoke of earlier, we have been able to reverse engineer a result from the Atlantic provinces:
Lib - 36%
CPC - 35%
NDP - 18%
Grn - 11%
However, since this did not come directly from strategic counsel, and since our methods of reverse engineering can add incongruities, plus the large margin of error that we are likely facing here; we have not added it to the matrix.
Lib - 36%
CPC - 35%
NDP - 18%
Grn - 11%
However, since this did not come directly from strategic counsel, and since our methods of reverse engineering can add incongruities, plus the large margin of error that we are likely facing here; we have not added it to the matrix.
New Poll
A new poll reported by CTV (found here) has been added to the matrix. While there were quite a few changes to our popular vote numbers, our seat numbers remain stable, confirming the current'plateau' of support for the Liberals.
Lib - 121
CPC - 115
BQ - 47
NDP - 25
Also in the report, CTV says that "Pollster Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel says the Conservatives should be concerned about the trend line, which firmly shows their support dropping and the Liberals' support growing since January." all but indicating that we were spot on with our post from yesterday (before this story broke)
We continue to have confidence in our numbers and our trendlines.
Lib - 121
CPC - 115
BQ - 47
NDP - 25
Also in the report, CTV says that "Pollster Peter Donolo of the Strategic Counsel says the Conservatives should be concerned about the trend line, which firmly shows their support dropping and the Liberals' support growing since January." all but indicating that we were spot on with our post from yesterday (before this story broke)
We continue to have confidence in our numbers and our trendlines.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Libs solidify
Not much in terms of hard numbers, but rather a reflection of feelings:
The Liberals seem in a much better place to win this coming election than the Tories. Iggy is more popular than Harper by certain measures, and does not have to wear the recession. As well the Tories pretty well "maxed-out" last election, while the Liberals have room for growth.
At this time we are projecting a Liberal win, but at this time we also feel it will be a minority.
The Liberals seem in a much better place to win this coming election than the Tories. Iggy is more popular than Harper by certain measures, and does not have to wear the recession. As well the Tories pretty well "maxed-out" last election, while the Liberals have room for growth.
At this time we are projecting a Liberal win, but at this time we also feel it will be a minority.
Friday, March 27, 2009
New Projection
I've also included the CROP poll as reported at the 308 blog
NATIONAL
Lib - 121
CPC - 118
BQ - 44
NDP - 25
ONTARIO
Lib - 61
CPC - 38
NDP - 7
QUEBEC
BQ - 44
Lib - 24
CPC - 7
WEST
CPC - 66
Lib - 15
NDP - 14
ATLANTIC
Lib - 21
CPC - 7
NDP - 4
Why the sudden jump for the Liberals? Well most of these gains are in Ontario, despite only a 2 point swing in that province. We've reached the point in first-past-the-post systems where the vote for the leading party becomes very efficient. This is normally around 40% While the difference between 25% and 35% might mean a dozen seats, the difference between 35% and 45% could mean three dozen. Followed by another dozen between 45% and 55%; keeping in mind the votes received by the opposition matter for quite a bit as well.
NATIONAL
Lib - 121
CPC - 118
BQ - 44
NDP - 25
ONTARIO
Lib - 61
CPC - 38
NDP - 7
QUEBEC
BQ - 44
Lib - 24
CPC - 7
WEST
CPC - 66
Lib - 15
NDP - 14
ATLANTIC
Lib - 21
CPC - 7
NDP - 4
Why the sudden jump for the Liberals? Well most of these gains are in Ontario, despite only a 2 point swing in that province. We've reached the point in first-past-the-post systems where the vote for the leading party becomes very efficient. This is normally around 40% While the difference between 25% and 35% might mean a dozen seats, the difference between 35% and 45% could mean three dozen. Followed by another dozen between 45% and 55%; keeping in mind the votes received by the opposition matter for quite a bit as well.
Friday, March 20, 2009
Map
We are trying to jazz up niXtuff with graphics and images. Here is a beta version of a map, with bar graphs representing seat projections in each electoral region.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Trends
We currently see a clear trendline in only one province; Quebec. The Tories are heading down, as are the Greens (though the latter is mostly the result of the unrealistic 26% poll) while the Liberals and Bloc are heading up.
This will be factored into our newest projection, to be posted within 12 hours.
This will be factored into our newest projection, to be posted within 12 hours.
Where the parties stand.
Our newest 5-poll average has the parties standing at the following numbers in each region.
Ontario
Lib - 39%
CPC - 36%
NDP - 15%
Grn - 10%
Quebec
BQ - 36%
Lib - 29%
CPC - 15%
NDP - 11%
Grn - 9%
Atlantic
Lib - 39%
CPC - 32%
NDP - 25%
Grn - 4%
British Columbia
CPC - 42%
Lib - 23%
NDP - 22%
Grn - 10%
Alberta
CPC - 56%
Lib - 20%
NDP - 12%
Grn - 8%
Prairies
CPC - 46%
Lib - 23%
NDP - 21%
Grn - 7%
Expect a full projection tomorrow.
Ontario
Lib - 39%
CPC - 36%
NDP - 15%
Grn - 10%
Quebec
BQ - 36%
Lib - 29%
CPC - 15%
NDP - 11%
Grn - 9%
Atlantic
Lib - 39%
CPC - 32%
NDP - 25%
Grn - 4%
British Columbia
CPC - 42%
Lib - 23%
NDP - 22%
Grn - 10%
Alberta
CPC - 56%
Lib - 20%
NDP - 12%
Grn - 8%
Prairies
CPC - 46%
Lib - 23%
NDP - 21%
Grn - 7%
Expect a full projection tomorrow.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Nova Scotia update
Our current projection is as follows.
NDP - 29-20
PC - 19-14
Lib - 18-10
The Liberals have the biggest gain in our projection as their poll numbers have finally solidified, and more and more voters express discontent with the current government.
NDP - 29-20
PC - 19-14
Lib - 18-10
The Liberals have the biggest gain in our projection as their poll numbers have finally solidified, and more and more voters express discontent with the current government.
Friday, March 13, 2009
New Projection
CPC - 126
Lib - 102
BQ - 47
NDP - 33
The NDP is up due to gains in the West, while the Tories have also bounced back as the "bump" Ignatieff received after becoming leader finally dies off.
There is also a note about the newest strategic council poll. It seems their problems in Quebec are far from done, as they are reporting the Tories at only 10% in Quebec, tied with the Greens, which would be an all-time low for the Harper government. We do not believe this poll is accurate (as with the last strategic council poll in Quebec showing the Greens at 26%) but have included due to the fact that our system is designed to filter out these "bad polls"
Monday, March 9, 2009
In review.
A history of projections at nixtuff.
I thought it might be time to stop and look back at some of our past numbers to see where the parties have gone over the time this blog has been in operation.
Lets start with December 7 2008.
This follows on the heels of an Angus Reid poll, shown here http://www.angus-reid.com/uppdf/2008.12.07_FederalScene.pdf that had the Liberals at their lowest number ever. Never before had they been at 22% nationally. They have, on many occasions, dropped to 23%, including during 2008, as well as during the late 80's, but never before had they hit 22%. As a result, this is also the highest number ever recorded for the new Conservative party in terms of our seat projection. Let's take a look at those numbers:
CPC 204
BQ 48
Lib 35
NDP 16
This would have seen the Liberals drop to an all-time low of 13 seats in Ontario, yet still manage to capture at least 1 seat in at least 6 other provinces.
Compare these numbers, especially the Liberal number, to our most recent projection. The Liberals are up 79 seats from this point.
On October 6 2008, we projected the NDP with 45 seats due to strong polling numbers. On September 12 2008, we had the NDP in third place, though with only 35 seats. Compare this to their devastating December 7th numbers. They, along with the Liberals, have recovered since then.
The Bloc meanwhile, have gone from their low of 33 seats on September 12th to a high of 52 on October 10th. There is no doubt that it is this gain that prevented Harper from getting his majority.
As the spring political season heats up, we plan to introduce more political commentary, as well as continue our quest to find historic polling numbers.
I thought it might be time to stop and look back at some of our past numbers to see where the parties have gone over the time this blog has been in operation.
Lets start with December 7 2008.
This follows on the heels of an Angus Reid poll, shown here http://www.angus-reid.com/uppdf/2008.12.07_FederalScene.pdf that had the Liberals at their lowest number ever. Never before had they been at 22% nationally. They have, on many occasions, dropped to 23%, including during 2008, as well as during the late 80's, but never before had they hit 22%. As a result, this is also the highest number ever recorded for the new Conservative party in terms of our seat projection. Let's take a look at those numbers:
CPC 204
BQ 48
Lib 35
NDP 16
This would have seen the Liberals drop to an all-time low of 13 seats in Ontario, yet still manage to capture at least 1 seat in at least 6 other provinces.
Compare these numbers, especially the Liberal number, to our most recent projection. The Liberals are up 79 seats from this point.
On October 6 2008, we projected the NDP with 45 seats due to strong polling numbers. On September 12 2008, we had the NDP in third place, though with only 35 seats. Compare this to their devastating December 7th numbers. They, along with the Liberals, have recovered since then.
The Bloc meanwhile, have gone from their low of 33 seats on September 12th to a high of 52 on October 10th. There is no doubt that it is this gain that prevented Harper from getting his majority.
As the spring political season heats up, we plan to introduce more political commentary, as well as continue our quest to find historic polling numbers.
Newest Numbers
Our newest national numbers, including one new poll, and both our trendline and baseline adjustments, show the following:
CPC - 119
Lib - 114
BQ - 46
NDP - 29
While the Liberals have been on the rise, they appear to have temporarily plateaued. Most of their gains so far have come from Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic. The West may be their new focus area.
CPC - 119
Lib - 114
BQ - 46
NDP - 29
While the Liberals have been on the rise, they appear to have temporarily plateaued. Most of their gains so far have come from Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic. The West may be their new focus area.
Friday, February 13, 2009
New projection
National numbers are as follows. Provincial numbers will follow shortly.
CPC - 128
Lib - 102
BQ - 45
NDP - 33
Note that we did use the so-called "Green 26% Quebec" poll; however due to our sophisticated weighting system which is designed to weed out these one-offs, the Greens only raised a single percentage point in Quebec, we now project them at 7.22% in that province.
CPC - 128
Lib - 102
BQ - 45
NDP - 33
Note that we did use the so-called "Green 26% Quebec" poll; however due to our sophisticated weighting system which is designed to weed out these one-offs, the Greens only raised a single percentage point in Quebec, we now project them at 7.22% in that province.
BC election
We've updated our projection for BC
BCL - 51
NDP - 33
GRN - 1
The margin of error is still gargantuan,
BCL - 37-67
NDP - 18-48
GRN - 0-2
We may, or may not, have further projections as the election date nears.
BCL - 51
NDP - 33
GRN - 1
The margin of error is still gargantuan,
BCL - 37-67
NDP - 18-48
GRN - 0-2
We may, or may not, have further projections as the election date nears.
New Polls
There are now enough new polls that we will update our matrix.
Expect this update within the next 24-48 hours
Expect this update within the next 24-48 hours
Friday, February 6, 2009
Nova Scotia election 2009
Roomer is that it is right around the corner.
Our projection currently has the following numbers:
NDP - 28-21
PC - 22-16
Lib - 10-6
We project an NDP government, at the moment we feel it may be a majority, but in the event it is a minority, we expect a coalition between the NDP and the Liberals, weather "official" (Dion style) or "unofficial" (David Peterson style)
Our projection currently has the following numbers:
NDP - 28-21
PC - 22-16
Lib - 10-6
We project an NDP government, at the moment we feel it may be a majority, but in the event it is a minority, we expect a coalition between the NDP and the Liberals, weather "official" (Dion style) or "unofficial" (David Peterson style)
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Federal Budget
I'm sure you've read most of this on news websites, but there is one thing I wish to point out. The amendment proposed by the Liberals will give the opposition a chance to bring down the government in March, June, and December.
I predict a mid-July election.
I predict a mid-July election.
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
BC election
Our current projection for the final result is as follows:
BCL - 47
NDP - 38
GRN - 0
However the margin of error is gargantuan,
BCL - 37-57
NDP - 28-48
GRN - 0-1
We may, or may not, have further projections as the election date nears.
BCL - 47
NDP - 38
GRN - 0
However the margin of error is gargantuan,
BCL - 37-57
NDP - 28-48
GRN - 0-1
We may, or may not, have further projections as the election date nears.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)