The much vaunted new engine is finished a day early! All that’s left to do is individual riding tweaks for places where things happened in 2008 that are unique (IE strong independent candidates who are not running again, the Elizabeth May situation, etc) I’ve put a poll average of all the 2009 polls into the engine and it popped out some results. I do note that the poll average was without weighting (we prefer a minimum of 5 polls, we only had 4 to work with in most provinces) and that due to the differences in reporting (“West”, Vs BC and Alberta and the central Prairies) we had to try to break down certain polls and that could be problematic. The same is true for both central Prairie provinces and all 4 Atlantic provinces, part of the tweaking that will be done will fix these issues. Regardless, here is our projection:
TR
C-1
L-1
N-1
BC
C-16
N-11
L-9
AB
C-27
N-1
SK
C-12
L-1
N-1
MB
C-7
N-4
L-3
ON
C-46
L-53
N-7
QC
B-42
L-24
C-9
NB
L-5
C-4
N-1
NS
L-6
N-3
C-2
PE
L-3
C-1
NL
L-6
N-1
TOTALS
C-125
L-111
B-42
N-30
Some questions. Why are the Liberals so strong? Partly this is due to some of the weighting issues I mentioned earlier, but more importantly, the Liberal vote is very efficient at these levels. The Tories and Liberals are tied in Ontario, yet the Liberals have a 7 seat edge here, while hundreds of thousands of Tory votes are wasted in rural Alberta and Saskatchewan. The NDP also appears to be strong, but much of this strength is in BC and Manitoba, which is more likely due to the small sample size and weighting difficulties, this will likely disappear as we tweak the system.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Riding by Riding projections (info access)
When we have our first batch of riding by riding projections, they will go here http://s1.zetaboards.com/nixtuff/index/ to save space on the blog itself.
Update
The much talked about 'engine' is nearly complete. All that's left is to input data (and that's being done, with 7 provinces and 3 territories finished) from 2008. Following that we will further refine the data by adding 2006 and 2004 data. For complicated reasons, I already have year 2000 data and I've noted how much the voting patterns for the Conservatives in 2008 have mirrored the Canadian Alliance in 2000, with the exception of Atlantic Canada. Perhaps I'm reading too much in to this however.
We also recommend checking out Canadian blog 308 dot com - http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/
We fully expect a new projection to be on this site within the next 48 hours, the first using our new engine. A seat by seat breakdown will also be available.
We also recommend checking out Canadian blog 308 dot com - http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/
We fully expect a new projection to be on this site within the next 48 hours, the first using our new engine. A seat by seat breakdown will also be available.
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Ask and ye shall receive
An article from the star:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/572739
The headline is "Harper edges ahead of Ignatieff in poll"
In general the poll does not change the 'ball game' in a major way from the projection below, though the Liberals are down in Quebec, and the NDP is up in BC. It appears as though more and more, much of the Tory success, pollwise, comes from Alberta. While it’s always been the case, the simple fact is that now more and more people live in Alberta, meaning a lead there will weight higher in national polls. The Tories are behind the Liberals in Quebec, and just about tied with them in Ontario. The biggest edge appears to come in Alberta and the other Prairie provinces. We may be entering a time where we will see the opposite of historical poll trends come true. In the past, the Liberals needed a 1%-2% lead nationally to win an election, even just barely, since so much of their vote was “wasted” in Quebec, where they would rack up huge wins. It may now be the Tories turn to experience this problem with huge wins out west. In the west, Conservative poll numbers are at, or are above 2008 numbers, but in Ontario they are steady, if not they’ve dropped. The problem is that many NDP voters have switched from the NDP to the Liberals according to the polls. Last election the NDP won 17 seats in Ontario, their highest ever in a federal election. All signs say that at least a dozen of these will revert to the Liberals.
The Bloc is another issue that I will deal with later. In short, their ‘weakness’ does not appear to be temporary. The Bloc does not appear set to ‘rebound’ to poll numbers that had them 15 points or more ahead of the nearest party for the past number of years. The Liberals do indeed appear to be back in Quebec.
We will keep an eye out for other polls as well.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/572739
The headline is "Harper edges ahead of Ignatieff in poll"
In general the poll does not change the 'ball game' in a major way from the projection below, though the Liberals are down in Quebec, and the NDP is up in BC. It appears as though more and more, much of the Tory success, pollwise, comes from Alberta. While it’s always been the case, the simple fact is that now more and more people live in Alberta, meaning a lead there will weight higher in national polls. The Tories are behind the Liberals in Quebec, and just about tied with them in Ontario. The biggest edge appears to come in Alberta and the other Prairie provinces. We may be entering a time where we will see the opposite of historical poll trends come true. In the past, the Liberals needed a 1%-2% lead nationally to win an election, even just barely, since so much of their vote was “wasted” in Quebec, where they would rack up huge wins. It may now be the Tories turn to experience this problem with huge wins out west. In the west, Conservative poll numbers are at, or are above 2008 numbers, but in Ontario they are steady, if not they’ve dropped. The problem is that many NDP voters have switched from the NDP to the Liberals according to the polls. Last election the NDP won 17 seats in Ontario, their highest ever in a federal election. All signs say that at least a dozen of these will revert to the Liberals.
The Bloc is another issue that I will deal with later. In short, their ‘weakness’ does not appear to be temporary. The Bloc does not appear set to ‘rebound’ to poll numbers that had them 15 points or more ahead of the nearest party for the past number of years. The Liberals do indeed appear to be back in Quebec.
We will keep an eye out for other polls as well.
Projection
I’ve decided to do a projection now for a few reasons. One, if we do get a new poll later today it will likely be only one, perhaps two polls. To mix them with the 2 polls from over a week ago does not sit right with me. Secondly, in the run up to the budget, we still expect to see more polls come out, ‘just in case’ there is an election.
Therefore, I’ve combined the 4 polls we do have since Ignatieff has become leader, and I’ve made our first official projection of 2009. It is as follows:
C = Conservatives
L = Liberals
N = New Democrats
B = Bloc Quebecois
G = Green Party
I = Independent
Ters
C-1
L-1
N-1
BC
C-19
L-11
N-6
AB
C-28
PR (Prairies. Sask and Man)
C-24
L-2
N-2
ON
C-50
L-50
N-6
QC
B-42
L-27
C-6
AT (Atlantic. NS, NB, PE, and NL)
L-17
C-10
N-5
TOTALS
C – 138
L – 108
B – 42
N – 20
No independents (Casey is not running and Arthur would likely lose if the Tories run someone – no reason to suggest they wont.) and no Greens (though Guelph would likely remain their strongest riding)
Therefore, I’ve combined the 4 polls we do have since Ignatieff has become leader, and I’ve made our first official projection of 2009. It is as follows:
C = Conservatives
L = Liberals
N = New Democrats
B = Bloc Quebecois
G = Green Party
I = Independent
Ters
C-1
L-1
N-1
BC
C-19
L-11
N-6
AB
C-28
PR (Prairies. Sask and Man)
C-24
L-2
N-2
ON
C-50
L-50
N-6
QC
B-42
L-27
C-6
AT (Atlantic. NS, NB, PE, and NL)
L-17
C-10
N-5
TOTALS
C – 138
L – 108
B – 42
N – 20
No independents (Casey is not running and Arthur would likely lose if the Tories run someone – no reason to suggest they wont.) and no Greens (though Guelph would likely remain their strongest riding)
Friday, January 16, 2009
Update
Sadly, new polls have been lacking.
Rather than wait until further in the new year, we are going to put out our first 2009 "official" projection by sunday afternoon. If needed, we will use the 4 most recent polls.
We are still working on our vaunted 'new engine' and will have that up and running by the budget vote on the 27th. We may also have a surprise for you by then.
Rather than wait until further in the new year, we are going to put out our first 2009 "official" projection by sunday afternoon. If needed, we will use the 4 most recent polls.
We are still working on our vaunted 'new engine' and will have that up and running by the budget vote on the 27th. We may also have a surprise for you by then.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Apx numbers
2 new polls
Ipsos and Nanos.
Both have good results for Quebec and Nanos has a large sample from Ontario so lets do more "partial" numbers for you.
Ipsos has the Bloc at 35% in Quebec with the Grits at 32%, the Tories at 19%, and the other parties at lower numbers. Nanos has the Grits at 39%, the Bloc at 29%, the Tories at 17% and the other parties at lower numbers. (I do not include the NDP because even at their highest number, 14%, it would be difficult for them to win any extra seats) Average this out and you get the following numbers:
Lib - 35.5%
BQ - 32%
CPC - 18%
(For the record, the NDP would be 10.5%)
In Ontario, we have to rely on Nanos numbers.
Lib - 39%
CPC - 35%
NDP - 16%
(Greens at 11% for the record)
This should net, approximately, the following seat results:
Quebec:
BQ - 40
Lib - 30
CPC - 5
Ontario:
Lib - 60
CPC - 40
NDP - 6
If you add the 2008 results for the rest of canada (not recommended) you end up with the following numbers for the two main parties:
CPC – 127
Lib – 115
We note, however that the Liberals are far up beyond their 2008 levels, and in fact, are polling near 2006 levels in many places. If true this could swing a half dozen seats towards them. This would give an end result of:
CPC – 121
Lib – 121
BQ - 40
NDP – 25
IND - 1
Now of course a tie is unlikely, and I have warned many times that these are only approximate numbers. I in fact have chosen these particular numbers to show that the two parties are, at this time, neck and neck. Unfortunately, 2 polls are not large enough of a sample size to create a reliable projection from. Check back in a week, as we fully expect to see more polls between now and then, and we will put out our first post 2008 'full projection'
Ipsos and Nanos.
Both have good results for Quebec and Nanos has a large sample from Ontario so lets do more "partial" numbers for you.
Ipsos has the Bloc at 35% in Quebec with the Grits at 32%, the Tories at 19%, and the other parties at lower numbers. Nanos has the Grits at 39%, the Bloc at 29%, the Tories at 17% and the other parties at lower numbers. (I do not include the NDP because even at their highest number, 14%, it would be difficult for them to win any extra seats) Average this out and you get the following numbers:
Lib - 35.5%
BQ - 32%
CPC - 18%
(For the record, the NDP would be 10.5%)
In Ontario, we have to rely on Nanos numbers.
Lib - 39%
CPC - 35%
NDP - 16%
(Greens at 11% for the record)
This should net, approximately, the following seat results:
Quebec:
BQ - 40
Lib - 30
CPC - 5
Ontario:
Lib - 60
CPC - 40
NDP - 6
If you add the 2008 results for the rest of canada (not recommended) you end up with the following numbers for the two main parties:
CPC – 127
Lib – 115
We note, however that the Liberals are far up beyond their 2008 levels, and in fact, are polling near 2006 levels in many places. If true this could swing a half dozen seats towards them. This would give an end result of:
CPC – 121
Lib – 121
BQ - 40
NDP – 25
IND - 1
Now of course a tie is unlikely, and I have warned many times that these are only approximate numbers. I in fact have chosen these particular numbers to show that the two parties are, at this time, neck and neck. Unfortunately, 2 polls are not large enough of a sample size to create a reliable projection from. Check back in a week, as we fully expect to see more polls between now and then, and we will put out our first post 2008 'full projection'
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Compass poll
According to a poll put out by Compass on December 23, the Liberals are at a shocking 42% in Quebec, with the Bloc at 28%, and the Tories at 16%. If true (and we honestly doubt this) this would make for the following results in that province:
Lib - 33
BQ - 33
CPC - 8
IND - 1
Lib - 33
BQ - 33
CPC - 8
IND - 1
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Current political scene
We have punched in the only two polls since Ignatieff became Liberal leader into our calculator and have come up with these rough results.
TER
CPC - 3
BC
CPC - 28
Lib - 4
NDP - 4
AB
CPC - 28
SK
CPC - 13
Lib - 1
MB
CPC - 10
NDP - 4
NL
Lib - 5
CPC - 1
NDP - 1
PE
Lib - 4
NS
Lib - 4
CPC - 3
NDP - 3
IND - 1
NB
Lib - 6
CPC - 3
NDP - 1
QC (biggest region to support the coalition)
BQ - 46
Lib - 21
CPC - 6
NDP - 1
IND - 1
ON (biggest swing to support for the government)
CPC - 65
Lib - 37
NDP - 4
TOTALS
CPC - 160
Lib - 82
BQ - 46
NDP - 18
IND - 2
This is quite a change in fortunes for the Liberals who, only a month ago, were projected at 35 seats. We will see if this can hold when the January polls come out.
TER
CPC - 3
BC
CPC - 28
Lib - 4
NDP - 4
AB
CPC - 28
SK
CPC - 13
Lib - 1
MB
CPC - 10
NDP - 4
NL
Lib - 5
CPC - 1
NDP - 1
PE
Lib - 4
NS
Lib - 4
CPC - 3
NDP - 3
IND - 1
NB
Lib - 6
CPC - 3
NDP - 1
QC (biggest region to support the coalition)
BQ - 46
Lib - 21
CPC - 6
NDP - 1
IND - 1
ON (biggest swing to support for the government)
CPC - 65
Lib - 37
NDP - 4
TOTALS
CPC - 160
Lib - 82
BQ - 46
NDP - 18
IND - 2
This is quite a change in fortunes for the Liberals who, only a month ago, were projected at 35 seats. We will see if this can hold when the January polls come out.
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Quebec Election, results
Barring a recount, the results appear to be
PLQ - 66
PQ - 51
ADQ - 7
QS - 1
This is a large enough majority for Charest to work with. At some points earlier in the night it appeared he might only win 63, 64, or 65 seats; in which case a single by-election loss or defection could destroy his majority. He has a nice comfort zone to work with here.
The big story of the night, at least from the way I see it, is the seat win by the QS. What will all of this mean? Does the PQ have to worry about bleeding votes to the left? Does the ADQ have to worry about being replaced as the "other" party? Does the PLQ have to worry about a new party that can win seats on Montreal in a way the PQ never could? Time will tell I suppose, for all we know the QS will go the way of the Alberta Alliance and be wiped off the map next election.
As for the predictions, I think it's safe to say yet again that we were all off. One problem that I see is that there are so many predicto sites out there run by a single person. One person with one method can fail, we here at niXtuff will be looking into this issue in the coming days.
The ADQ over-preformed most expectations taking 7 seats, everyone had them at 4. If these three extra seats were added to the PLQ total it would reach 69, which is in the range of many predictions. The PQ also over preformed, and our last-second call for the PQ in Mercier is as close as it gets to anyone expecting a QS victory. There are still a few seats that were close, shefford for example, where a recount may turn the result over. We will keep our eyes open and keep you informed.
Dumont has decided to call it quits. As we've mentioned earlier, Eric Caire is the only ADQ "star" who had a chance at winning. He did win. We project he will be the next leader of the ADQ.
PLQ - 66
PQ - 51
ADQ - 7
QS - 1
This is a large enough majority for Charest to work with. At some points earlier in the night it appeared he might only win 63, 64, or 65 seats; in which case a single by-election loss or defection could destroy his majority. He has a nice comfort zone to work with here.
The big story of the night, at least from the way I see it, is the seat win by the QS. What will all of this mean? Does the PQ have to worry about bleeding votes to the left? Does the ADQ have to worry about being replaced as the "other" party? Does the PLQ have to worry about a new party that can win seats on Montreal in a way the PQ never could? Time will tell I suppose, for all we know the QS will go the way of the Alberta Alliance and be wiped off the map next election.
As for the predictions, I think it's safe to say yet again that we were all off. One problem that I see is that there are so many predicto sites out there run by a single person. One person with one method can fail, we here at niXtuff will be looking into this issue in the coming days.
The ADQ over-preformed most expectations taking 7 seats, everyone had them at 4. If these three extra seats were added to the PLQ total it would reach 69, which is in the range of many predictions. The PQ also over preformed, and our last-second call for the PQ in Mercier is as close as it gets to anyone expecting a QS victory. There are still a few seats that were close, shefford for example, where a recount may turn the result over. We will keep our eyes open and keep you informed.
Dumont has decided to call it quits. As we've mentioned earlier, Eric Caire is the only ADQ "star" who had a chance at winning. He did win. We project he will be the next leader of the ADQ.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Quebec Election, update
Sadly, this will be the last update before I head off to work.
The Liberals are back in majority territory (just barely), but clearly it will not be as large a majority as we had projected. This is partly due to PQ strength, and the ADQ doing better than expected.
PLQ - 67
PQ - 50
ADQ - 7
QS - 1
The Liberals are back in majority territory (just barely), but clearly it will not be as large a majority as we had projected. This is partly due to PQ strength, and the ADQ doing better than expected.
PLQ - 67
PQ - 50
ADQ - 7
QS - 1
Quebec Election, counting votes
PLQ is down to 61 seats according to the CBC
PLQ - 61 (minority)
PQ - 53
ADQ - 9
QS - 1
PLQ - 61 (minority)
PQ - 53
ADQ - 9
QS - 1
Quebec Election, current standings
If these numbers hold, it could be big trouble for the PLQ.
PLQ - 64
PQ - 50
ADQ - 9
QS - 1
Again, it is still early.
PLQ - 64
PQ - 50
ADQ - 9
QS - 1
Again, it is still early.
Quebec Election partial results
Current leading/elected standings:
PLQ - 69
PQ - 45
ADQ - 5
QS - 1
We note that it took until our very last update before we dropped our projection for the single QS seat. We had it close all along.
PLQ - 69
PQ - 45
ADQ - 5
QS - 1
We note that it took until our very last update before we dropped our projection for the single QS seat. We had it close all along.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Polls
We've combined polls from the Strategic Counsel http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls/2008-12-04%20globeandmail%20(web).pdf - Ipsos Reid http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4201 - Ekos http://www.ekoselection.com/wp-content/uploads/poll-results-dec-5-final.pdf - and compass http://www.compas.ca/data/081205-CommonsTurmoil-EPCB.pdf to find the poll-average. This multipoll averaging is a proven system to eliminate the static of poll-swing used by niXtuff to produce more accurate projection results. If an election were held today with these numbers, this is what we expect would be the results.
C 204
B 48
L 35
N 16
Note that this is a 'rough' calculation and is not as accurate as our regular election calculations. We are just trying to give you an idea of how these poll numbers would translate. For the record, here is our provincial breakdown:
BC
C 32
L 2
N 2
AB
C 28
SK/MB
C 23
N 3
L 1
AT
C 24
L 4
N 4
QC
B 48
L 15
C 10
N 1
And lastly...
ON
C 87
L 13
N 6
Note that this is not a joke, a type-o, or a mistake. Current polling numbers show Harper with a Chretien style lead in Ontario. In fact for this prediction we over-estimated liberal strength on the presumption that polls are currently over-stating the current tory strength. So what ridings would remain Liberal or NDP?
Assuming we use the actual numbers (and not our adjusted estimates) the NDP wins these 5:
Hamilton Cen
Timmins
Windsor W
Toronto Danforth
Trinity Spadina
and the Liberals, these 12
Parkdale
Beaches East York
Nickel Belt
Davenport
Toronto Centre
York South Weston
Vaughan
Etobicoke North
Markham
Scarborough-Agincourt
York West
Scarborough RR
The remaining ridings, including ridings such as St.Paul, Ottawa Centre, and Sudbury are all projected to go Conservative.
C 204
B 48
L 35
N 16
Note that this is a 'rough' calculation and is not as accurate as our regular election calculations. We are just trying to give you an idea of how these poll numbers would translate. For the record, here is our provincial breakdown:
BC
C 32
L 2
N 2
AB
C 28
SK/MB
C 23
N 3
L 1
AT
C 24
L 4
N 4
QC
B 48
L 15
C 10
N 1
And lastly...
ON
C 87
L 13
N 6
Note that this is not a joke, a type-o, or a mistake. Current polling numbers show Harper with a Chretien style lead in Ontario. In fact for this prediction we over-estimated liberal strength on the presumption that polls are currently over-stating the current tory strength. So what ridings would remain Liberal or NDP?
Assuming we use the actual numbers (and not our adjusted estimates) the NDP wins these 5:
Hamilton Cen
Timmins
Windsor W
Toronto Danforth
Trinity Spadina
and the Liberals, these 12
Parkdale
Beaches East York
Nickel Belt
Davenport
Toronto Centre
York South Weston
Vaughan
Etobicoke North
Markham
Scarborough-Agincourt
York West
Scarborough RR
The remaining ridings, including ridings such as St.Paul, Ottawa Centre, and Sudbury are all projected to go Conservative.
Quebec Election - Final
PLQ 75 (MAJORITY)
PQ 46
ADQ 4
ADQ
Chauveau
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Lotbinière
Rivière-du-Loup
PQ
Abitibi-Ouest
Beauharnois
Berthier
Bertrand
Blainville
Borduas
Bourget
Chambly
Champlain
Charlevoix
Deux-Montagnes
Drummond
Dubuc
Duplessis
Gouin
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Johnson
Joliette
Labelle
Lac-Saint-Jean
L'Assomption
Marguerite-D'Youville
Marie-Victorin
Masson
Matapédia
Mercier
Mirabel
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Prévost
René-Lévesque
Richelieu
Rimouski
Roberval
Rosemont
Rousseau
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
Saint-Maurice
Taillon
Taschereau
Terrebonne
Ungava
Vachon
Verchères
PLQ
Abitibi-Est
Acadie
Anjou
Argenteuil
Arthabaska
Beauce-Nord
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
Bonaventure
Bourassa-Sauvé
Brome-Missisquoi
Chapleau
Charlesbourg
Châteauguay
Chicoutimi
Chomedey
Crémazie
D'Arcy-McGee
Fabre
Frontenac
Gaspé
Gatineau
Groulx
Hull
Huntingdon
Iberville
Jacques-Cartier
Jean-Lesage
Jeanne-Mance—Viger
Jean-Talon
Jonquière
Kamouraska-Témiscouata
La Peltrie
La Pinière
La Prairie
LaFontaine
Laporte
Laurier-Dorion
Laval-des-Rapides
Laviolette
Lévis
Louis-Hébert
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Marquette
Maskinongé
Matane
Mégantic-Compton
Mille-Îles
Montmagny-L'Islet
Montmorency
Mont-Royal
Nelligan
Nicolet-Yamaska
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Orford
Outremont
Papineau
Pontiac
Portneuf
Richmond
Robert-Baldwin
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Saint-François
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
Saint-Laurent
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Soulanges
Trois-Rivières
Vanier
Vaudreuil
Verdun
Viau
Vimont
Westmount—Saint-Louis
PQ 46
ADQ 4
ADQ
Chauveau
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Lotbinière
Rivière-du-Loup
PQ
Abitibi-Ouest
Beauharnois
Berthier
Bertrand
Blainville
Borduas
Bourget
Chambly
Champlain
Charlevoix
Deux-Montagnes
Drummond
Dubuc
Duplessis
Gouin
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Johnson
Joliette
Labelle
Lac-Saint-Jean
L'Assomption
Marguerite-D'Youville
Marie-Victorin
Masson
Matapédia
Mercier
Mirabel
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Prévost
René-Lévesque
Richelieu
Rimouski
Roberval
Rosemont
Rousseau
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
Saint-Maurice
Taillon
Taschereau
Terrebonne
Ungava
Vachon
Verchères
PLQ
Abitibi-Est
Acadie
Anjou
Argenteuil
Arthabaska
Beauce-Nord
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
Bonaventure
Bourassa-Sauvé
Brome-Missisquoi
Chapleau
Charlesbourg
Châteauguay
Chicoutimi
Chomedey
Crémazie
D'Arcy-McGee
Fabre
Frontenac
Gaspé
Gatineau
Groulx
Hull
Huntingdon
Iberville
Jacques-Cartier
Jean-Lesage
Jeanne-Mance—Viger
Jean-Talon
Jonquière
Kamouraska-Témiscouata
La Peltrie
La Pinière
La Prairie
LaFontaine
Laporte
Laurier-Dorion
Laval-des-Rapides
Laviolette
Lévis
Louis-Hébert
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Marquette
Maskinongé
Matane
Mégantic-Compton
Mille-Îles
Montmagny-L'Islet
Montmorency
Mont-Royal
Nelligan
Nicolet-Yamaska
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Orford
Outremont
Papineau
Pontiac
Portneuf
Richmond
Robert-Baldwin
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Saint-François
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
Saint-Laurent
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Soulanges
Trois-Rivières
Vanier
Vaudreuil
Verdun
Viau
Vimont
Westmount—Saint-Louis
Quebec Election
Final list coming shortly.
ADQ solid
Chauveau
Lotbinière
PLQ solid
Beauce-Nord
Montmorency
Abitibi-Est
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Nicolet-Yamaska
PQ solid
Mercier
Marguerite-D'Youville
Saint-Jean
Chambly
PLQ 75 (MAJORITY)
PQ 46
ADQ 4
ADQ solid
Chauveau
Lotbinière
PLQ solid
Beauce-Nord
Montmorency
Abitibi-Est
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Nicolet-Yamaska
PQ solid
Mercier
Marguerite-D'Youville
Saint-Jean
Chambly
PLQ 75 (MAJORITY)
PQ 46
ADQ 4
Quebec Election
PLQ vs PQ (10)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Marguerite-D'Youville
Nicolet-Yamaska
Saint-Jean
ADQ vs PLQ (3)
Beauce-Nord
Chauveau
Montmorency
ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lotbinière * (Due to an earlier recording error, this was listed as Levis, which is actually solidly PLQ)
PQ vs QS (1)
Mercier
Solid PLQ +2
Matane
Vanier
Solid PQ +2
Roberval
Saint-Hyacinthe
PLQ 66-80 (MAJORITY)
PQ 42-54
ADQ 2-6
QS 0-1
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Marguerite-D'Youville
Nicolet-Yamaska
Saint-Jean
ADQ vs PLQ (3)
Beauce-Nord
Chauveau
Montmorency
ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lotbinière * (Due to an earlier recording error, this was listed as Levis, which is actually solidly PLQ)
PQ vs QS (1)
Mercier
Solid PLQ +2
Matane
Vanier
Solid PQ +2
Roberval
Saint-Hyacinthe
PLQ 66-80 (MAJORITY)
PQ 42-54
ADQ 2-6
QS 0-1
Saturday, December 6, 2008
PLQ clinches majority
Our most recent update has the PLQ clinching a majority of seats.
Solid PLQ +8 (64)
Arthabaska
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
La Peltrie
Crémazie
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Groulx
Louis-Hébert
Solid PQ +3 (40)
Gouin
Saint-Maurice
Ungava
BATTLEGROUND SEATS (19)
PLQ vs PQ (13)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Marguerite-D'Youville
Matane
Nicolet-Yamaska
Roberval
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
ADQ vs PLQ (4)
Beauce-Nord
Chauveau
Montmorency
Vanier
ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lotbinière
PQ vs QS (1)
Mercier
PLQ 64-82 (MAJORITY)
PQ 40-55
ADQ 2-7
QS 0-1
Solid PLQ +8 (64)
Arthabaska
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
La Peltrie
Crémazie
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Groulx
Louis-Hébert
Solid PQ +3 (40)
Gouin
Saint-Maurice
Ungava
BATTLEGROUND SEATS (19)
PLQ vs PQ (13)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Marguerite-D'Youville
Matane
Nicolet-Yamaska
Roberval
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
ADQ vs PLQ (4)
Beauce-Nord
Chauveau
Montmorency
Vanier
ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lotbinière
PQ vs QS (1)
Mercier
PLQ 64-82 (MAJORITY)
PQ 40-55
ADQ 2-7
QS 0-1
Quebec Election
Here is our seat by seat projection for Quebec.
ADQ solid (2)
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière (ADQ)
Rivière-du-Loup (ADQ)
PQ solid (37)
Abitibi-Ouest
Beauharnois
Berthier
Bertrand
Blainville
Borduas
Bourget
Champlain
Charlevoix
Deux-Montagnes
Drummond
Dubuc
Duplessis
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Johnson
Joliette
Labelle
Lac-Saint-Jean
L'Assomption
Marie-Victorin
Masson
Matapédia
Mirabel
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Prévost
René-Lévesque
Richelieu
Rimouski
Rosemont
Rousseau
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques
Taillon
Taschereau
Terrebonne
Vachon
Verchères
PLQ solid (56)
Acadie
Anjou
Argenteuil
Bonaventure
Bourassa-Sauvé
Brome-Missisquoi
Chapleau
Charlesbourg
Châteauguay
Chomedey
D'Arcy-McGee
Fabre
Frontenac
Gatineau
Hull
Huntingdon
Jacques-Cartier
Jean-Lesage
Jeanne-Mance—Viger
Jean-Talon
Kamouraska-Témiscouata
La Pinière
LaFontaine
Laporte
Laurier-Dorion
Laval-des-Rapides
Laviolette
Lévis
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Marquette
Maskinongé
Mégantic-Compton
Mille-Îles
Montmagny-L'Islet
Mont-Royal
Nelligan
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Orford
Outremont
Papineau
Pontiac
Portneuf
Richmond
Robert-Baldwin
Saint-François
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
Saint-Laurent
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Soulanges
Trois-Rivières
Vaudreuil
Verdun
Viau
Vimont
Westmount—Saint-Louis
BATTLEGROUND SEATS (31)
PLQ vs PQ (19)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Crémazie
Gaspé
Groulx
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Louis-Hébert
Marguerite-D'Youville
Matane
Nicolet-Yamaska
Roberval
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
Saint-Maurice
Ungava
ADQ vs PLQ (9)
Arthabaska
Beauce-Nord
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
Chauveau
La Peltrie
Montmorency
Vanier
ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lévis
PQ vs QS (2)
Gouin
Mercier
The list of solid seats will not be published again. In the coming days the number of "battleground" seats will be reduced, and they will be assigned to particular parties.
PLQ 56-85
PQ 37-59
ADQ 2-12
QS 0-2
What's personally surprising is that when I ran the numbers, that QS seems to still be within striking range of some PQ seats. This may be due to imperfections on our mathematical modeling system however. Regardless, we've put them up there. Also note it's possible for the PQ to win the election. They'd need to be within 4.5% of the PLQ in order to do so (39% for the PLQ to 34.5% PQ means the PQ wins) but currently polls are showing the gap is larger than this.
ADQ solid (2)
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière (ADQ)
Rivière-du-Loup (ADQ)
PQ solid (37)
Abitibi-Ouest
Beauharnois
Berthier
Bertrand
Blainville
Borduas
Bourget
Champlain
Charlevoix
Deux-Montagnes
Drummond
Dubuc
Duplessis
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Johnson
Joliette
Labelle
Lac-Saint-Jean
L'Assomption
Marie-Victorin
Masson
Matapédia
Mirabel
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Prévost
René-Lévesque
Richelieu
Rimouski
Rosemont
Rousseau
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques
Taillon
Taschereau
Terrebonne
Vachon
Verchères
PLQ solid (56)
Acadie
Anjou
Argenteuil
Bonaventure
Bourassa-Sauvé
Brome-Missisquoi
Chapleau
Charlesbourg
Châteauguay
Chomedey
D'Arcy-McGee
Fabre
Frontenac
Gatineau
Hull
Huntingdon
Jacques-Cartier
Jean-Lesage
Jeanne-Mance—Viger
Jean-Talon
Kamouraska-Témiscouata
La Pinière
LaFontaine
Laporte
Laurier-Dorion
Laval-des-Rapides
Laviolette
Lévis
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Marquette
Maskinongé
Mégantic-Compton
Mille-Îles
Montmagny-L'Islet
Mont-Royal
Nelligan
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Orford
Outremont
Papineau
Pontiac
Portneuf
Richmond
Robert-Baldwin
Saint-François
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
Saint-Laurent
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Soulanges
Trois-Rivières
Vaudreuil
Verdun
Viau
Vimont
Westmount—Saint-Louis
BATTLEGROUND SEATS (31)
PLQ vs PQ (19)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Crémazie
Gaspé
Groulx
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Louis-Hébert
Marguerite-D'Youville
Matane
Nicolet-Yamaska
Roberval
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
Saint-Maurice
Ungava
ADQ vs PLQ (9)
Arthabaska
Beauce-Nord
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
Chauveau
La Peltrie
Montmorency
Vanier
ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lévis
PQ vs QS (2)
Gouin
Mercier
The list of solid seats will not be published again. In the coming days the number of "battleground" seats will be reduced, and they will be assigned to particular parties.
PLQ 56-85
PQ 37-59
ADQ 2-12
QS 0-2
What's personally surprising is that when I ran the numbers, that QS seems to still be within striking range of some PQ seats. This may be due to imperfections on our mathematical modeling system however. Regardless, we've put them up there. Also note it's possible for the PQ to win the election. They'd need to be within 4.5% of the PLQ in order to do so (39% for the PLQ to 34.5% PQ means the PQ wins) but currently polls are showing the gap is larger than this.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Quebec Election
Max and Mins for each party according to recent polling
PLQ = 61-82
PQ = 41-58
ADQ = 2-11
PLQ = 61-82
PQ = 41-58
ADQ = 2-11
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Parliament out, to return in Jan.
Regardless, there will likely be an election sooner rather than later. None of what's going on right now in Ottawa is anywhere near "stable"
Friday, November 28, 2008
Another federal election?
There is word that the Liberals and NDP are planning to form a coalition government to bring down the Tories. Successful or not, it likely means another election is in the offing sooner rather than later.
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