We've combined polls from the Strategic Counsel http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls/2008-12-04%20globeandmail%20(web).pdf - Ipsos Reid http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4201 - Ekos http://www.ekoselection.com/wp-content/uploads/poll-results-dec-5-final.pdf - and compass http://www.compas.ca/data/081205-CommonsTurmoil-EPCB.pdf to find the poll-average. This multipoll averaging is a proven system to eliminate the static of poll-swing used by niXtuff to produce more accurate projection results. If an election were held today with these numbers, this is what we expect would be the results.
Note that this is a 'rough' calculation and is not as accurate as our regular election calculations. We are just trying to give you an idea of how these poll numbers would translate. For the record, here is our provincial breakdown:
Note that this is not a joke, a type-o, or a mistake. Current polling numbers show Harper with a Chretien style lead in Ontario. In fact for this prediction we over-estimated liberal strength on the presumption that polls are currently over-stating the current tory strength. So what ridings would remain Liberal or NDP?
Assuming we use the actual numbers (and not our adjusted estimates) the NDP wins these 5:
and the Liberals, these 12
Beaches East York
York South Weston
The remaining ridings, including ridings such as St.Paul, Ottawa Centre, and Sudbury are all projected to go Conservative.