Tuesday, December 11, 2012

In the Provinces

As 2012 draws to a close, one question is on the minds of all Canadians. When is the next RxR post about the Provinces? The answer is today!


ONTARIO
Ontario is expected to be the next province to go to the polls - at least I expect it to be. Once the new Liberal leader is chosen, there is a good chance the legislation will vote it out and we'll be heading to the polls. Current polls show the parties in a close race with the PC party having an edge. My off-hand projection is as follows:
PC - 50 (Tim Hudak)
Lib - 30 (?)
NDP - 27 (Andrea Horwath)
And by off-hand I mean I just wrote that up right now, without looking at any poll numbers (I have a great memory though) and the only math I did was making sure it adds to 107. Take it as a rough guide.
As for who the next Liberal leader will be, my gut says one of 3 people. Gerard Kennedy, Sandra Pupatelo, or Kathleen Wynne.


QUEBEC
If the forces at work from outside the legislature get their way, we will be headed to another election very soon in Quebec as well. My off-hand projection is as follows:
PQ - 60 (Pauline Marois)
PLQ - 42 (?)
CAQ - 21 (Francois Legault)
QS - 2 (Francoise David)
Which is just as "bad" as what we have now in terms of balance of power.
My guess for PLQ leader is Philippe Couillard


BRITISH COLUBMIA
BC votes on May 14th 2013. I'll be doing official projections as the date gets closer. In 2005 I entered a contest and won a book due to my getting BC so right (projections) and in 2009 I was off by 2 seats - Lib/NDP switch - and one independent. My BC projections have been great in the past, but with the new Conservatives, even I worry about how well things will turn out. Regardless, my current off-hand projection as as follows:
NDP - 55 (Adrian Dix)
Lib - 27 (Christy Clark)
Ind - 1 (Viki Huntingdon)
Con - 1 (Jason Cummins)
Grn - 1 (Jane Sterk)
There is a real chance that the Greens could snatch away 1 or more of the 7 seats in the Victoria-Saanich area. They will need to play their cards right. The Conservatives could also walk away with a few seats if they can get their act together and get quality candidates in either one of the 2 Peace ridings, or, the 5 ridings in the Boundary-Kelowna area. Outside of these 14 ridings, the battle with be Lib/NDP and the NDP will win most of those.


NOVA SCOTIA
One of the few provinces left without fixed election dates. The next election is expected in the fall of 2013, or, the spring of 2014. My current off-hand projection is as follows:
Lib - 22 (Stephen McNiel)
NDP - 18 (Darrell Dexter)
PC - 11 (Jamie Baille)
I don't expect this government to last long at all.


NEW BRUNSWICK
On September 22 2014 NB will go to the polls. My current off-hand projection is as follows:
PC - 30 (David Alward)
Lib - 21 (Brian Gallant)
NDP - 4 (Dominic Cardy)


PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
On October 5th 2015* PEI will vote. My current off-hand projection is as follows:
Lib - 21 (Robert Ghiz)
PC - 6 (?)
NDP - 0 (James Rodd)


NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
On October 13th 2015* Newfoundland will vote. My current off-hand projection is as follows:
PC - 30 (Kathy Dunderdale)
NDP - 14 (Lorraine Michael)
Lib - 6 (?)


FEDERAL - CANADA
On October 19th 2015, Canadians from coast to coast to coast will go to the polls. My off-hand projection is as follows:
CPC - 160 (Stephen Harper)
NDP - 88 (Thomas Mulcair)
Lib - 80 (Justin Trudeau) [come on who else?]
BQ - 9 (Daniel Pallie)
Grn - 1 (Elizabeth May)


SASKATCHEWAN
On November 2nd 2015*, Saskatchewan will go to the polls. My current off-hand projection is as follows:
SKP - 42 (Brad Wall)
NDP - 16 (?)


MANITOBA
On April 19th 2016*, Manitoba will hold an election. My current off-hand projection is as follows:
PC - 31 (Brian Pallister)
NDP - 26 (Greg Selinger)
Lib - 0 (?)


ALBERTA
On June 1st 2016, Alberta will hold an election. My current off-hand projection is as follows:
PC - 43 (Allison Redford)
WR - 40 (Danielle Smith)
Lib - 3 (?)
NDP - 2 (?)
I expect Liberal and NDP leaders to resign.


*A note on dates:
Manitoba has an official law changing it's date if it conflicts with a federal election. That changed date is what is displayed. The other provinces have no such laws, but may pass such laws prior to 2015. I expect them to.

3 comments:

Kyle H. said...

Who do you expect to get elected in Victoria for the Greens? Weaver?

TheNewTeddy said...

It's a party vote, not a person vote, so it's a roll of the die.

Bernard von Schulmann said...

The odds of Bob Simpson winning again in Cariboo North are good in my opinion. He has embraced being an independent over the last couple of years and has a strong local following.

Also the odds of Independent Arthur Hadland winning in Peace River North is good as well.