Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Things to keep an eye on.

What should you keep an eye out for as the results roll in?


Jean Charest should lose by a convincing margin. The first 10 or 20 polls in any riding can show just about any result, just ask the leader of the Quebec wing of the Marxist-Leninists (who was shown leading in his federal riding in 1997, based on 1 poll) Beyond 20 polls however things get a bit more stable. At that point here is what you should see: Charest trailing. Maybe Charest jumping into the lead for a few minutes, but going back to trailing. Here is what you should not see: Charest ahead, and staying ahead. If you do see the latter it is a sign that the PLQ Campaign has done far better than expected. A Charest win in his riding should spell a PLQ minority government.


The PLQ should sweep the ridings in West Island Montreal. The PQ is certainly not going to sweep them and there is no evidence that either the QS or ON has managed to appeal to them in large numbers. If the CAQ starts winning seats here all bets may be off. The CAQ is not expected to take the Anglo vote, and if it does, it could decimate the PLQ, and, possibly thrust itself into government as a result. 


Areas of Francophone Montreal are expected to split between the PQ and PLQ. The QS is expected to take Mercier and Gouin. The QS could have a strong shower in Laurier-Dorion, Sainte-Marie--Saint-Jacques, and Outremont. They may also do well in Rosemont, and Hochelaga--Maisonneuve. ON is expected to do well around these areas too. Should the QS start leading in any of these ridings (past 20 polls) and hold on to the lead, they may well be able to win the riding, and the same goes for the ON. This would be on the strength of the Student vote, and those whom the Students have convinced to follow them.

South of Quebec City

Parts south of Quebec City (Beauce, Bellechasse, Arthabaska, Levis, etc) are expected to be the heartland of CAQ support. If the PLQ starts winning big here and the CAQ is still managing to find seats somewhere, it means the old ADQ voter has split between the CAQ and PLQ. If, however, the PLQ sweeps this area and the CAQ is doing awful, it means the CAQ has failed to find new voters and has lost old ADQ voters.


The PQ is expected to sweep all the ridings in this area (Chicoutimi, Dubuc, Jonquiere, Lac-Saint-Jean, Roberval, even Rene-Levesaue, and Duplessis) a failure to do so would indicate all the existing projection models have a flaw and other areas of supposed PQ strength could be equally misleading.


The PVQ has had an awful campaign, only finding candidates in half the ridings. This is their best riding in the province, and, the leader has chosen to run here. The lower the vote share for the PVQ in this riding, the longer it will take to rebuild the party.


Perhaps the most interesting "smaller party" this election is the new provincial Conservative Party lead by former MP Luc Harvey. He is running in Levis and is not expected to do well. You can gawk at him in this riding as the results come in.

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