Jean Charest should lose by a convincing margin. The first 10 or 20 polls in any riding can show just about any result, just ask the leader of the Quebec wing of the Marxist-Leninists (who was shown leading in his federal riding in 1997, based on 1 poll) Beyond 20 polls however things get a bit more stable. At that point here is what you should see: Charest trailing. Maybe Charest jumping into the lead for a few minutes, but going back to trailing. Here is what you should not see: Charest ahead, and staying ahead. If you do see the latter it is a sign that the PLQ Campaign has done far better than expected. A Charest win in his riding should spell a PLQ minority government.
South of Quebec City