Saturday, February 20, 2010

Quebec Polls

<-More below the fold!

New Leger polls are out showing provincial and federal polling data. I've combined this newest poll with the past two to get a better average. I have used the breakdown between Francophones and Non-Francophones

(P)PQ - 47
(L)PLQ - 31
(A)ADQ - 9
(Q)QS - 7
(V)PV - 4

B - 47
L - 20
C - 16
N - 16
G - 6

L - 73
P - 9
B - 6
A - 4
Q - 4

L - 43
C - 21
N - 18
B - 8
G - 6

More below the fold

I've done this so I can examine the difference between federal and provincial numbers.

Among Francophones you can see both the Bloc and PQ at 47%. These are, for a large part, the same voters. The Greens have 6% federally and 4% provincially, again, mostly the same voters. What is more interesting are the other parties.

The NDP takes 15%, while QS has only taken 7%, about half that. Meanwhile, the Tories have 16%, but the ADQ only has 9%, roughly 2/3rds of the vote. The provincial Liberals suck up these voters, taking 31% compared to the federal party at 20%.

Among non-Francophones, we see the PQ at 9% and the Bloc at 8%, while the Greens have 4% on both levels. These parties have the best relation between federal and provincial support levels. Both the ADQ and QS are tied at 4%, while the CPC and NDP have 21% and 18% respectively (this is within the margin of error) This translates to 1/5th support. Again, we see the PLQ sucking up the difference, taking an astounding 73% of non-francophones, while the federal party has only 43% support.

I will be keeping track of future polls to see if these support ratios stand.

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