Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Riding tracker.

Note that Democratic Space updated thier last projections since we took note, so some of this may be off. Prelim numbers are as follows:

We were right, as was EP. DS was off.

Central Nova - We were wrong
South Shore - We and EP were wrong

Tobique - We were wrong

Charlesbourg - We were wrong
Brossard - We were wrong (narrowly)
Hull - We were wrong
Roberval - DS was wrong, we and EP were right.

Beaches - We were wrong
Mississauga South - We and EP were wrong, DS was right
Welland - We were right
Brant - We were wrong
London West - We were right
Kenora - We were wrong, but so were they (It went CPC)

Saint Boniface - We were right

Palliser - we were wrong

Vancouver Kingsway - we were wrong, so was DS
Esquaimalt - We were wrong
Saanich - We were right, so was DS
Surrey North - We were wrong
Newton - We were wrong, so was DS

Nunavut - We were right, so was DS

So that's 17 to 6. There were a number of ridings (Mirimichi for example) that we were all wrong about. Regardless, this has unfortuantly been a failure and we have failed to acheive our goal of correctly predicting the election against the other major prediction websites, and all of us failed to predict the size of the tory minority.

1 comment:

Tlonist said...

Low voter turnout was certainly a factor. I wouldn't fault your methods, but the pollsters should have attempted to provide better data in order to correct for that. Low voter turnout tends to favour the CPC.

Also apparently a lot of young people (post-secondary students) were turned away at the polls because they lacked the identification with proof of address required under the new election law. CPC supporters tend to have fixed addresses, are less likely to have recently moved, and are generally older.