Friday, June 5, 2009
Nova Scotia - blowout part 2
A few days ago, I asked "What if it's a blowout". Quite simply, it appears it will be. Our map posted earlier is our "projection"
Thursday, June 4, 2009
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Nova Scotia. What if it's a blowout?
What would it look like if the NDP had a blow-out?
Something like this:
Something like this:
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
New Ekos Poll
A new Ekos poll is out, claiming to be the largest poll ever. We have our doubts, for one this poll appears to have been taken over a very long period of time. During the federal election with it's rolling polls, this is commonplace, but the polling companies do not add up all these numbers and claim it is really just one gigantic poll.
Ekos also has problems. Not only as they the firm that made the famous October 1987 poll with the NDP in first place nationally, but they also more recently and famously recorded the Canadian Alliance at it's lowest level ever (6%) nationally, as well as it's highest level ever (32%) just a year earlier. They had the Liberals over 65% at one point, and as far as I know, hold the record for both the high and low for each political party in the country. Ekos tends to ask other questions in their polls, but there is no evidence as to what they ask first. This can matter a great deal. Take Quebec for example. The Liberals constantly outpoll Premier Jean Charest. Asking someone if they like Charest or Marois, and then asking if they are voting Liberal or PQ is not really fair. Ekos has a history of picking up on swings, but also has a history of being off the mark. We will therefore not throw caution to the wind and super-weight this single poll from a firm with a bad record. We will, however, count it seriously. And without further adieu, the results of our new matrix:
NATIONAL
Lib - 123 - 34.08%
CPC - 110 - 32.09%
BQ - 44 - 9.30%
NDP - 31 - 16.20%
GRN - 0 - 7.33%
Atlantic
Lib - 21 - 41%
CPC - 7 - 32%
NDP - 5 - 22%
Quebec
BQ - 44 - 35.0%
Lib - 26 - 35.0%
CPC - 5 - 14.0%
Ontario
Lib - 59 - 40.5%
CPC - 36 - 34.5%
NDP - 11 - 15.0%
Prairies (central)
CPC - 20 - 47%
Lib - 4 - 23%
NDP - 4 - 23%
Alberta
CPC - 27 - 58%
Lib - 1 - 21%
British Columbia
CPC - 14 - 33%
Lib - 11 - 30%
NDP - 11 - 25%
Ekos also has problems. Not only as they the firm that made the famous October 1987 poll with the NDP in first place nationally, but they also more recently and famously recorded the Canadian Alliance at it's lowest level ever (6%) nationally, as well as it's highest level ever (32%) just a year earlier. They had the Liberals over 65% at one point, and as far as I know, hold the record for both the high and low for each political party in the country. Ekos tends to ask other questions in their polls, but there is no evidence as to what they ask first. This can matter a great deal. Take Quebec for example. The Liberals constantly outpoll Premier Jean Charest. Asking someone if they like Charest or Marois, and then asking if they are voting Liberal or PQ is not really fair. Ekos has a history of picking up on swings, but also has a history of being off the mark. We will therefore not throw caution to the wind and super-weight this single poll from a firm with a bad record. We will, however, count it seriously. And without further adieu, the results of our new matrix:
NATIONAL
Lib - 123 - 34.08%
CPC - 110 - 32.09%
BQ - 44 - 9.30%
NDP - 31 - 16.20%
GRN - 0 - 7.33%
Atlantic
Lib - 21 - 41%
CPC - 7 - 32%
NDP - 5 - 22%
Quebec
BQ - 44 - 35.0%
Lib - 26 - 35.0%
CPC - 5 - 14.0%
Ontario
Lib - 59 - 40.5%
CPC - 36 - 34.5%
NDP - 11 - 15.0%
Prairies (central)
CPC - 20 - 47%
Lib - 4 - 23%
NDP - 4 - 23%
Alberta
CPC - 27 - 58%
Lib - 1 - 21%
British Columbia
CPC - 14 - 33%
Lib - 11 - 30%
NDP - 11 - 25%
Monday, June 1, 2009
Nova Scotia 2009
A new poll puts the NDP at 44% across the province, their highest level ever. The Liberals, at 28%, Tories, at 26%, and Greens, at 2%, trail badly.
A quick count of the poll, IE a non-official estimate, is as follows:
NDP - 34
Lib - 12
PC - 6
We are now projecting a 99% certainty that the election will result in an NDP majority government.
A quick count of the poll, IE a non-official estimate, is as follows:
NDP - 34
Lib - 12
PC - 6
We are now projecting a 99% certainty that the election will result in an NDP majority government.
Sunday, May 31, 2009
BC Election
It appears since our last report, two ridings have changed.
Delta South was won by the Independent candidate (we had projected the Liberal)
While Cariboo-Chilcotin was won by the Liberals, and not as we projected, the NDP
Final Results
BCL - 49 - 45.83%
NDP - 35 - 42.14%
Grn - 0 - 8.20%
Con - 0 - 2.10%
IND - 1 - N/A
Delta South was won by the Independent candidate (we had projected the Liberal)
While Cariboo-Chilcotin was won by the Liberals, and not as we projected, the NDP
Final Results
BCL - 49 - 45.83%
NDP - 35 - 42.14%
Grn - 0 - 8.20%
Con - 0 - 2.10%
IND - 1 - N/A
Thursday, May 28, 2009
NS Election
While I could talk to you about the 52 NDP Candidates, or the 52 Green, PC, or Liberal candidates, I'll let each party do that, as they are more than willing. I want to talk today about the 4 independents running for office in the coming election, and just a little information on them.
First, the most famous, Ernie Fage, who has his own Wikipedia page. In short he's a former Tory who was disgraced, and is now trying to hold on to his solidly-Tory riding. His margin of victory as a Tory in 2006 was so great, that even if half of his 2006 voters (minus one) vote for him, and the other half (plus one) vote for the winning Tory candidate, Mr.Fage would still finish in second place. (In fact, even a combined Liberal-NDP candidate would only beat him out by 100 votes)
Next is Milton Countway, running in one of the 3 ridings with retiring PC legislators. He is a local (rural) "town" councillor who likely has some smarts in running in a riding without an incumbent.
Stemer MacLeod is running in Cape Breton. He did the same thing 3 years ago, and managed to capture an astounding 120 votes, and 3 years before that, capturing 264 votes, and again, 4 years before that, getting 137 votes. Despite one webpage stating that he has "No online presence" I was able to find out his name is Stewart, and his mother was born in 1930 (putting his age somewhere in the range of 60-40) Apparently he's also run for school board (and lost) Apparently, he's been doing this (running and losing) since 1993.
Lastly is Jonathan Dean, leader of the Atlantica Party which sounds sort of like a non-religious Reform Party. They want recall, referenda, and fixed election dates. They want to merge the atlantic provinces, and use proportional representation. While much of this appeals to me personally, they also support private healthcare, and all sorts of deregulation (cough, walkerton ontario, cough) While the party does seem a tad too far to the right, it is not radical like some fringe parties. The problem here is not so much the party but the fact that the entire thing seems to just be a single person with a lot of time on his hands. Honestly, I'd have taken these guys more seriously if they had managed to run more than one candidate. How many political parties have gone from nothing to something while having, at any point, just one candidate in an election?
First, the most famous, Ernie Fage, who has his own Wikipedia page. In short he's a former Tory who was disgraced, and is now trying to hold on to his solidly-Tory riding. His margin of victory as a Tory in 2006 was so great, that even if half of his 2006 voters (minus one) vote for him, and the other half (plus one) vote for the winning Tory candidate, Mr.Fage would still finish in second place. (In fact, even a combined Liberal-NDP candidate would only beat him out by 100 votes)
Next is Milton Countway, running in one of the 3 ridings with retiring PC legislators. He is a local (rural) "town" councillor who likely has some smarts in running in a riding without an incumbent.
Stemer MacLeod is running in Cape Breton. He did the same thing 3 years ago, and managed to capture an astounding 120 votes, and 3 years before that, capturing 264 votes, and again, 4 years before that, getting 137 votes. Despite one webpage stating that he has "No online presence" I was able to find out his name is Stewart, and his mother was born in 1930 (putting his age somewhere in the range of 60-40) Apparently he's also run for school board (and lost) Apparently, he's been doing this (running and losing) since 1993.
Lastly is Jonathan Dean, leader of the Atlantica Party which sounds sort of like a non-religious Reform Party. They want recall, referenda, and fixed election dates. They want to merge the atlantic provinces, and use proportional representation. While much of this appeals to me personally, they also support private healthcare, and all sorts of deregulation (cough, walkerton ontario, cough) While the party does seem a tad too far to the right, it is not radical like some fringe parties. The problem here is not so much the party but the fact that the entire thing seems to just be a single person with a lot of time on his hands. Honestly, I'd have taken these guys more seriously if they had managed to run more than one candidate. How many political parties have gone from nothing to something while having, at any point, just one candidate in an election?
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
niXtuff Makeover
Over the next short while (before the expected late July election) we will be giving niXtuff a makeover, and will be making over our projection matrix.
I will share with you a story of how we came to be.
I have always had an interest in politics. In the 2004 election, I remember trying to research local ridings to figure out what would happen. At the time I lived on the east coast and was only 19 years old. The 32 local ridings were enough to fill my plate, but I also took an interest in ridings in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, which seemed easy enough to remember. I was able to make some projections, but many were far off the mark. It was after this time that I first stumbled across the University of British Columbia's, Election Forecaster, found here: http://esm.ubc.ca/forecast.php I've been in limited contact with the Forecaster's creator, Prof. Werner Antweiler (he was the one who sent me the base data that allowed me to 'win' the BC election projection race) I loved the idea of the forecaster and soon became married to it.
Using the forecaster, in 2006, I made a shocking projection that no one in their right mind would believe. I said the Tories would win 10 seats in Quebec. Some of the biggest projectors of the time were laughed at for saying they'd win as many as 6. I was clearly the radical. I was spot on. The problem was I had not really told anyone who cared. Much like catching the soap at the last minute in the shower, this was a personal victory I had not really shared with anyone. It was after this I had the first inklings to create this blog.
During this whole period, I participated in two Political Simulations. Politics UK http://politicsuk.net/poluk/ and Politics Canada http://z3.invisionfree.com/Politics_Canada/index.php? (which is undergoing a restart, if you want to join, now is the time!) In Politics UK, they used the program UK Elect http://www.ukelect.co.uk/ for elections. I wanted to use it for Canadian elections, and in fact, over at Politics Canada, we had in the past. There was only one participant, however, who truly understood how UK Elect worked, and he flatly refused to teach me what he knew! Fear I'd replace him I suppose. I was left in an impossible dilemma, I cannot use the program I need. What to do.
I figured if I cannot use UK Elect, I may as well just build a new one myself. And thus was born my ElectoMatic. The ElectoMatic is superior to UK Elect in some ways in that it is built to simulate Canadian elections, not british ones, though both can be modified to do the other. The ElectoMatic is also cheaper (free, though I keep a copyright on it) and far easier to use (type in your poll numbers and the rest is done for you) though it does lack certain things.
One thing the ElectoMatic currently lacks is how to shift projections in a wide manner. I will explain how the ElectoMatic currently works. Lets take a party and call it Party A. Party A took 40% of the vote last time. This time, they are polling at 44%. 44% is 10% higher than 40%. 10% is therefore the modifier we use. If they took 40,000 votes in Riding A, we assume this time, they will take 44,000. And if they took 50,000 last time, we assume they will get 55,000 this time. That's all fine and dandy, and it works very well for small shifts of a few points, but when you get into huge shifts, and swings, it is just not enough.
Hencefore, I will be doing a makeover of the ElectoMatic to allow for swings, and to properly simulate growth from small parties. Lets assume the Greens somehow manage 60% in the coming election. That's a 1000% increase. Does that mean Riding A, where they got 4% last time, will see them get 40% this time, while riding B where they got 8% last time, will see them get 80% this time? No. The realistic results would be closer to 64% and 68%, though not exactly of course. Hence I will allow positive numbers to increase a result, while not allowing negative numbers to decrease it (a fault of UK Elect, which often elects parties with negative popular vote numbers) I feel these changes are needed to make the program work as best it can.
Lastly, the Blog itself. I have been somewhat lax on updating links that are no longer applicable. This has not been a public transit blog since 2007, and yet I have not removed that data. I will be doing so over the next short while. I will also be revamping our forum where I can more easily post data without cluttering up the Blog itself.
In short, good things are happening, and we fully expect to be ready and raring to go by the time the next election rolls around. Make sure to tell your friends:)
I will share with you a story of how we came to be.
I have always had an interest in politics. In the 2004 election, I remember trying to research local ridings to figure out what would happen. At the time I lived on the east coast and was only 19 years old. The 32 local ridings were enough to fill my plate, but I also took an interest in ridings in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, which seemed easy enough to remember. I was able to make some projections, but many were far off the mark. It was after this time that I first stumbled across the University of British Columbia's, Election Forecaster, found here: http://esm.ubc.ca/forecast.php I've been in limited contact with the Forecaster's creator, Prof. Werner Antweiler (he was the one who sent me the base data that allowed me to 'win' the BC election projection race) I loved the idea of the forecaster and soon became married to it.
Using the forecaster, in 2006, I made a shocking projection that no one in their right mind would believe. I said the Tories would win 10 seats in Quebec. Some of the biggest projectors of the time were laughed at for saying they'd win as many as 6. I was clearly the radical. I was spot on. The problem was I had not really told anyone who cared. Much like catching the soap at the last minute in the shower, this was a personal victory I had not really shared with anyone. It was after this I had the first inklings to create this blog.
During this whole period, I participated in two Political Simulations. Politics UK http://politicsuk.net/poluk/ and Politics Canada http://z3.invisionfree.com/Politics_Canada/index.php? (which is undergoing a restart, if you want to join, now is the time!) In Politics UK, they used the program UK Elect http://www.ukelect.co.uk/ for elections. I wanted to use it for Canadian elections, and in fact, over at Politics Canada, we had in the past. There was only one participant, however, who truly understood how UK Elect worked, and he flatly refused to teach me what he knew! Fear I'd replace him I suppose. I was left in an impossible dilemma, I cannot use the program I need. What to do.
I figured if I cannot use UK Elect, I may as well just build a new one myself. And thus was born my ElectoMatic. The ElectoMatic is superior to UK Elect in some ways in that it is built to simulate Canadian elections, not british ones, though both can be modified to do the other. The ElectoMatic is also cheaper (free, though I keep a copyright on it) and far easier to use (type in your poll numbers and the rest is done for you) though it does lack certain things.
One thing the ElectoMatic currently lacks is how to shift projections in a wide manner. I will explain how the ElectoMatic currently works. Lets take a party and call it Party A. Party A took 40% of the vote last time. This time, they are polling at 44%. 44% is 10% higher than 40%. 10% is therefore the modifier we use. If they took 40,000 votes in Riding A, we assume this time, they will take 44,000. And if they took 50,000 last time, we assume they will get 55,000 this time. That's all fine and dandy, and it works very well for small shifts of a few points, but when you get into huge shifts, and swings, it is just not enough.
Hencefore, I will be doing a makeover of the ElectoMatic to allow for swings, and to properly simulate growth from small parties. Lets assume the Greens somehow manage 60% in the coming election. That's a 1000% increase. Does that mean Riding A, where they got 4% last time, will see them get 40% this time, while riding B where they got 8% last time, will see them get 80% this time? No. The realistic results would be closer to 64% and 68%, though not exactly of course. Hence I will allow positive numbers to increase a result, while not allowing negative numbers to decrease it (a fault of UK Elect, which often elects parties with negative popular vote numbers) I feel these changes are needed to make the program work as best it can.
Lastly, the Blog itself. I have been somewhat lax on updating links that are no longer applicable. This has not been a public transit blog since 2007, and yet I have not removed that data. I will be doing so over the next short while. I will also be revamping our forum where I can more easily post data without cluttering up the Blog itself.
In short, good things are happening, and we fully expect to be ready and raring to go by the time the next election rolls around. Make sure to tell your friends:)
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
NS Candidate Watch, final
Quote from Elections Nova Scotia
Note:
Official nominations closed at 2:00 PM on Tuesday, May 26, 2009.
...
Number of Candidates:
Green Party of Nova Scotia: 52
Liberal: 52
NDP: 52
Progressive Conservative: 52
Independent: 4
Total Number of Candidates: 212
Congrats to all parties on making the full slate
Note:
Official nominations closed at 2:00 PM on Tuesday, May 26, 2009.
...
Number of Candidates:
Green Party of Nova Scotia: 52
Liberal: 52
NDP: 52
Progressive Conservative: 52
Independent: 4
Total Number of Candidates: 212
Congrats to all parties on making the full slate
Federal Update
We've added the partial polls from Ipsos and Leger to our matrix (it is robust enough to not require all data points) and have come up with the following results:
Monday, May 25, 2009
Friday, May 22, 2009
Thursday, May 21, 2009
NS Election, official projection
We cannot offer guarentees on any seats (due to two things. A - the small number of polls. And B - the small size of ridings, which makes local factors far more important) However we have our first, and likely last, number projection
NDP - 27
PC - 13
Lib - 12
A very narrow NDP majority. Of course our margin of error would see anything between:
NDP - 24-30
PC - 10-17
Lib - 9-16
While we cannot (due to the factors noted above) offer any riding by riding projections of any consequence, we will produce a full provincial map, coloured by party (and even try our hand at a colourblind-friendly version) that has our best guesstimations.
NDP - 27
PC - 13
Lib - 12
A very narrow NDP majority. Of course our margin of error would see anything between:
NDP - 24-30
PC - 10-17
Lib - 9-16
While we cannot (due to the factors noted above) offer any riding by riding projections of any consequence, we will produce a full provincial map, coloured by party (and even try our hand at a colourblind-friendly version) that has our best guesstimations.
NS Candidate watch
Greens advance
NDP - 44
PC - 41
Lib - 34
Grn - 27
Ind - 3
Looks like all 4 parties will manage full slates. The Tories still have an organizational advantage over the Liberals, and that may come in very important come election day, despite the Liberals being ahead in the polls.
NDP - 44
PC - 41
Lib - 34
Grn - 27
Ind - 3
Looks like all 4 parties will manage full slates. The Tories still have an organizational advantage over the Liberals, and that may come in very important come election day, despite the Liberals being ahead in the polls.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
NS Election 2009
Turning the most recent poll into seats, I get this:
NDP - 26
Lib - 14
PC - 12
Our current "Chances at Victory" have changed.
60% NDP Majority
40% NDP Minority
We no longer think it realistically possible for one of the other parties to manage a victory.
NDP - 26
Lib - 14
PC - 12
Our current "Chances at Victory" have changed.
60% NDP Majority
40% NDP Minority
We no longer think it realistically possible for one of the other parties to manage a victory.
NS Election
Elections Nova Scotia is repoting officially nominated candidates (IE, those with all the legal paperwork)
Here are the numbers:
NDP - 41
PC - 38
Lib - 30
Grn - 17
IND - 1
We are still estimating a 66% chance of an NDP majority, with a 25% chance of an NDP minority (9% chance of a PC minority)
Candidates still have a week to register.
Here are the numbers:
NDP - 41
PC - 38
Lib - 30
Grn - 17
IND - 1
We are still estimating a 66% chance of an NDP majority, with a 25% chance of an NDP minority (9% chance of a PC minority)
Candidates still have a week to register.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
How did we do?
Accoring to Sacha Peter of BC2009, we did rather well
While we did not break the pack average for number projections, we were first in riding by riding projections, pending recounts! I will use this experience to further refine the ElectoMatic program I use the project all results.
While we did not break the pack average for number projections, we were first in riding by riding projections, pending recounts! I will use this experience to further refine the ElectoMatic program I use the project all results.
BC Election, observations
A few things.
It appears as though more voters switched from Green to NDP than we expected. This explains the extra 2-5 seats they are set to win. (At this time we expect a 48-37 split)
The Conservatives are also on track, if current patterns hold, to win 28 thousand votes, compared to 24 thousand for all "other" parties combined. The Greens are set to take 106k, the NDP 543k, and the Liberals 603k. It is still early however.
Edit - Also, STV goes down 40-60 to FPTP (at this stage). BC will be keeping it's current electoral system.
It appears as though more voters switched from Green to NDP than we expected. This explains the extra 2-5 seats they are set to win. (At this time we expect a 48-37 split)
The Conservatives are also on track, if current patterns hold, to win 28 thousand votes, compared to 24 thousand for all "other" parties combined. The Greens are set to take 106k, the NDP 543k, and the Liberals 603k. It is still early however.
Edit - Also, STV goes down 40-60 to FPTP (at this stage). BC will be keeping it's current electoral system.
Monday, May 11, 2009
Projection Updates
Our current projections are...
Nova Scotia
NDP Majority, no specific numbers
BC
BCL - 52
NDP - 33
Canada
Lib - 125
CPC - 106
BQ - 47
NDP - 30
Nova Scotia
NDP Majority, no specific numbers
BC
BCL - 52
NDP - 33
Canada
Lib - 125
CPC - 106
BQ - 47
NDP - 30
Recession
I was going through our old posts and found one from January of 2008 that I wrote...
I was reading wikipedia, and about how Japan’s economy took a nose dive in the 90’s thanks to the bursting of their housing bubble. This created a domino effect on the economy and cause a decade of stagnation in Japan.
I was also reading that the current US sub-prime crisis was triggered by the bursting of the US housing bubble…
I’ll leave the rest to your imagination.
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