NS Election 2009

Turning the most recent poll into seats, I get this:

NDP - 26
Lib - 14
PC - 12

Our current "Chances at Victory" have changed.

60% NDP Majority
40% NDP Minority

We no longer think it realistically possible for one of the other parties to manage a victory.

NS Election

Elections Nova Scotia is repoting officially nominated candidates (IE, those with all the legal paperwork)

Here are the numbers:


NDP - 41
PC - 38
Lib - 30
Grn - 17
IND - 1


We are still estimating a 66% chance of an NDP majority, with a 25% chance of an NDP minority (9% chance of a PC minority)

Candidates still have a week to register.

NS Election 2009

Candidate Numbers (out of 52)

PC - 50
NDP - 47
Lib - 45
Grn - 43*

How did we do?

Accoring to Sacha Peter of BC2009, we did rather well

While we did not break the pack average for number projections, we were first in riding by riding projections, pending recounts! I will use this experience to further refine the ElectoMatic program I use the project all results.

BC election "results"

BCL - 49 - 46%
NDP - 36 - 42%

There will be recounts.

BC Election, observations

A few things.
It appears as though more voters switched from Green to NDP than we expected. This explains the extra 2-5 seats they are set to win. (At this time we expect a 48-37 split)

The Conservatives are also on track, if current patterns hold, to win 28 thousand votes, compared to 24 thousand for all "other" parties combined. The Greens are set to take 106k, the NDP 543k, and the Liberals 603k. It is still early however.

Edit - Also, STV goes down 40-60 to FPTP (at this stage). BC will be keeping it's current electoral system.

BC Election 2009 - final

Riding by Riding projections.
BCL - 52
NDP - 33

Projection Updates

Our current projections are...

Nova Scotia
NDP Majority, no specific numbers

BC
BCL - 52
NDP - 33

Canada
Lib - 125
CPC - 106
BQ - 47
NDP - 30

Recession

I was going through our old posts and found one from January of 2008 that I wrote...

I was reading wikipedia, and about how Japan’s economy took a nose dive in the 90’s thanks to the bursting of their housing bubble. This created a domino effect on the economy and cause a decade of stagnation in Japan.

I was also reading that the current US sub-prime crisis was triggered by the bursting of the US housing bubble…

I’ll leave the rest to your imagination.

Commuter chaos in Toronto

EDIT - these protesters have now left the highway.

This will be my last post about transit issues on this blog, this week we will create two new blogs to separate out...

Our election projections (which will remain here at niXtuff)

Our transportation and transit information (which will go on a blog titled "OnTrans"

And my own personal political opinion (which will go on a blog titled "The Green Blue Grit"

Regardless, anyone reading this in Toronto before their monday morning commute, beware. It threatens to be utter chaos. Tamil protesters have shut down the Gardnier, and all traffic is being forced to exit at Jameson. The police have, for safety reasons, closed the DVP. The allen was, as of 10pm, backed up to Lawrence southbound. Anyone wanting to head into the city tomorrow morning is well advised to take transit. Alternate routes (Don Mills, Lakeshore) are going to be overcrowded. If you have to reach the core, try roads like Avenue, Dufferin, College, and Gerrard.

Unfortunately, GO Transit's lakeshore west line is already overcrowded, and they have little to no extra buses to help. GO Transit gets the smallest per-fare subsidy of any public transit agency in north america, ahead of the TTC, which is #2. My personal suggestion to those in Halton or Peel who need to get into the city is to take GO's milton line, or to get on to the TTC subway. King and Queen streetcar routes are likely going to be insane, avoid them, take Dundas if you can. Also avoid the yonge subway line south of bloor, take university if you can. If your workplace allows it, try to come in an hour early or late to avoid the worst of the mess.

A political note, there has been debate to tear down the Gardiner (as it blocks the view) east of Jameson. If the protest remains, the entire city will get to experience just what that will feel like. My read is that if the protest is still there tomorrow morning at 8am, Toronto will never ever allow the gardiner to be taken down due to the pure chaos this will create.

NS Election

According to media reports via wikipedia...

Candidates:
NDP - 48/52
Lib - 44/52
PC - 43/52
Grn - 16/52

What does this mean? In short, all three major parties have passed the first major hurdle. The next will come on May 24th when Elections Nova Scotia nominations close. If a party is racing in the last few days to fill a dozen spots, that's a clear indicator of a problem.

BC Election

An official riding by riding prediction will go up soon.

Barring another poll, this is our official projection

BCL - 52 (46.71%)
NDP - 33 (40.41%)
GRN - 0 (10.04%)
OTH - 0 (2.84%)

NS Election

Candidates, as of friday night, end of the first week

NDP - 45/52
PC - 41/52
Lib - 30/52**
Grn - 15/52*

** = It has come to my attention that the leader is not listed on the candidates page, which contains 29 people.

* = From Wikipedia, as the party still does not list its candidates on its website.

I read these results in the following way:
This is indeed a 2-way race between the Tories and the NDP. The Liberals are established but seem destined to remain in opposition. The 4 candidate lead by the NDP over the Tories does not read as significant at this stage, however the next week will be critical.

Canadian Election

Again, this update results in no seat changes.

Here is another image from the ElectoMatic - this time the province of Manitoba.

BC Election

BCL - 52
NDP - 33
with the most recent poll in the matrix, we now have
BCL - 46%
NDP - 40%
GRN - 11%
OTH - 3% (mostly Con, which we expect at 2% or more)

Sample Chart

From the ElectoMatic

Canadian Election

I've given out the link to this blog recently, so to restate, our current prediction for a federal election is as follows:

Lib - 125 (34.80%)
CPC - 106 (31.44%)
BQ - 47 (9.80%)
NDP - 30 (16.24%)
Grn - 0 (6.71%)

In Ontario:
Lib - 62 (41.51%)
CPC - 34 (34.24%)
NDP - 10 (15.21%)
GRN - 0 (8.03%)

In Quebec:
BQ - 47 (37.44%)
Lib - 24 (33.85%)
CPC - 4 (12.79%)
NDP - 0 (10.97%)
GRN - 0 (3.97%)

West:
CPC - 61 (45.01%)
Lib - 18 (25.15%)
NDP - 16 (20.47%)
GRN - 0 (8.37%)

BC Election

Our current projections stand as follows:

BCL - 63 (46.96%)
NDP - 22 (38.09%)
GRN - 0 (11.90%)
OTH - 0 (3.05%)

NS election

The PC Party has added it's official list of candidates to it's website.

As of now, here is where things stand:

NDP - 42
PC - 41
Lib - 28
Grn - 15*

NS election

While not always a perfect indicator, one thing I find that helps determine election results is candidates. Much like comparing the number of lawn signs, I find comparing the speed which a party reaches a full-slate to help determine it's level of support in the coming election.

At the time of the writing, the parties have the following number of candidates:

NDP - 42
PC - 29*
Lib - 28
Grn - 15*

more to come.


* = from Wikipedia, as their website has yet to list the number.

BC election

Added a pre-debate environics poll.

BCL - 59
NDP - 26

We expect the NDP to be up a bit following the next poll

Nova Scotia heading to the polls

Unless (very unlikely) the NDP and Liberals can work out an agreement to government without one. Neither party has a reason to, the Liberals stand to double their seat count and the NDP stands possible to win a majority. Our current projection is that they will do just that, however things can change, and we will keep an eye on the election.

Election date tentatively set for June 9th

Logos and MiniLogos

With the new change, here are our current political logos and mini-logos.


CONSERVATIVE




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LIBERAL




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BLOC




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NEW DEMOCRATS




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GREEN

New Liberal Logo

http://www.liberal.ca/default_e.aspx


Not bad. And not unexpected considering most of the elections under the old logo (2004, 2006, 2008) were losses (or weak minorities)