BC Election

BCL - 52
NDP - 33
with the most recent poll in the matrix, we now have
BCL - 46%
NDP - 40%
GRN - 11%
OTH - 3% (mostly Con, which we expect at 2% or more)

Sample Chart

From the ElectoMatic

Canadian Election

I've given out the link to this blog recently, so to restate, our current prediction for a federal election is as follows:

Lib - 125 (34.80%)
CPC - 106 (31.44%)
BQ - 47 (9.80%)
NDP - 30 (16.24%)
Grn - 0 (6.71%)

In Ontario:
Lib - 62 (41.51%)
CPC - 34 (34.24%)
NDP - 10 (15.21%)
GRN - 0 (8.03%)

In Quebec:
BQ - 47 (37.44%)
Lib - 24 (33.85%)
CPC - 4 (12.79%)
NDP - 0 (10.97%)
GRN - 0 (3.97%)

West:
CPC - 61 (45.01%)
Lib - 18 (25.15%)
NDP - 16 (20.47%)
GRN - 0 (8.37%)

BC Election

Our current projections stand as follows:

BCL - 63 (46.96%)
NDP - 22 (38.09%)
GRN - 0 (11.90%)
OTH - 0 (3.05%)

NS election

The PC Party has added it's official list of candidates to it's website.

As of now, here is where things stand:

NDP - 42
PC - 41
Lib - 28
Grn - 15*

NS election

While not always a perfect indicator, one thing I find that helps determine election results is candidates. Much like comparing the number of lawn signs, I find comparing the speed which a party reaches a full-slate to help determine it's level of support in the coming election.

At the time of the writing, the parties have the following number of candidates:

NDP - 42
PC - 29*
Lib - 28
Grn - 15*

more to come.


* = from Wikipedia, as their website has yet to list the number.

BC election

Added a pre-debate environics poll.

BCL - 59
NDP - 26

We expect the NDP to be up a bit following the next poll

Nova Scotia heading to the polls

Unless (very unlikely) the NDP and Liberals can work out an agreement to government without one. Neither party has a reason to, the Liberals stand to double their seat count and the NDP stands possible to win a majority. Our current projection is that they will do just that, however things can change, and we will keep an eye on the election.

Election date tentatively set for June 9th

Logos and MiniLogos

With the new change, here are our current political logos and mini-logos.


CONSERVATIVE




----
LIBERAL




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BLOC




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NEW DEMOCRATS




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GREEN

New Liberal Logo

http://www.liberal.ca/default_e.aspx


Not bad. And not unexpected considering most of the elections under the old logo (2004, 2006, 2008) were losses (or weak minorities)

Projection Update

Lib - 125
CPC - 105
BQ - 48
NDP - 30

no commentary.

Swine Flu

Or technically "H1N1 Influenza A"

Will it have an impact on the BC election?

Yes. Certainly.

What impact?

That much remains to be seen. What we have done, however is lower the weight of both our baseline and trendline, as we are entering a time when political opinion can shift quickly based on headlines (RE: Quebec 2008 election)

While there are chances that this will help the NDP, if the sitting government is perceived as handling the crisis well, they could in fact be the political beneficiaries. This will, overall, hurt STV and the Greens, as it will draw attention away from them.

Our current projection, however, stands.

New poll - Quebec

A new CTV poll http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20090429/quebec_poll_090429/20090429?hub=Canada shows us some results for Quebec, but Quebec alone (at the federal level). We will try to find the official results to see if there are national breakdowns. According to CROP, the Liberals have a huge lead in the province.

Lib - 37
BQ - 31
CPC - 15
NDP - 12

We have doubts about this poll as the Bloc has been steady at near 40% in the province for quite a while and this would represent a significant change. Until we get more information, we will not be adding this to the matrix.

BC 2009

Some good news for the NDP. 2 polls say they are doing rather well.

A robbins poll puts them at 42 behind the BC Liberals at 44. This poll also asks voters if they are voting Conservative - a minor provincial party. 5% said yes. The problem is the party is only running in a quarter of ridings, meaning that at least 3% of the province will be upset to find no Conservative on the ballot - we believe they are likely to vote Liberal. The same can be said for the 3.75% that said they were voting for "other", the problem again is that many ridings do not have any "others" running.

Angus reid reports the BC Liberals at 42 and the BC NDP at 39. Again a very high "other" number is found. While we think the Conservatives could break 2% or even 3%, we do not see it likely that the votes for "others" will be much greater, and that many of these looking for a more-right-than-the-liberals voters will default back to the BC Liberals.

We have updated our current projection, however the trendline for the NDP is still negative.

BCL - 53
NDP - 32

Twitter

Our apologies to trendlines.ca. We had assumed we were the first to Twitter, but they have been online for quite a while! Feel free to read their feed at
http://twitter.com/TrendlinesDotCa

Trendlines has been very accurate in past elections especially the 2007 Ontario election where they were the first to (very early) project a significant PC downturn, suggesting at near the time the writ dropped a maximum of 35 seats, while democraticspace (now offline) and electionprediction (plus my own pre-blog projections) had the numbers closer to 40 or 50. Trendlines uses a trend line to project it's results, we have picked up on this and use a trend line as part of our projection.

Nova Scotia election 2009

We are perhaps only a week away from an Election call in Nova Scotia. We do not expect many polls, and hence, will not be able to do an official projection, but we still are projecting an NDP government, with the only question being if it is a Majority, or a Minority with Liberal support.

BC Election

We've been able to add baselines and trendlines to our BC election projection. The trendline is very heavy on the NDP - it's dragging it down. The NDP is also suffering from a bad baseline (They tend to finish second, only 3 times have they won) and seem to have lost the debate, and are losing momentum, if not going outright backwards after a lackluster campaign. Currently we need more polls to really re-weight things in a serious manner, but based on our trend and base lines we have updated our projection:

BCL - 58
NDP - 27

This NDP weakness has put the greens in serious striking distance in Powell River, Saanich North, and Esquimalt; the former two on historic strength, and the latter as it is the leader's riding (always to consider). The problem is that the first two were historically strong because of strong candidates (leader and deputy leader) and weather that will carry over is unknown. The fact remains, however, that if the NDP continues to slump, the Greens may end up with an MLA. Other ridings to watch for the Greens are Vancouver West End and West Vancouver (both of them)

New Projection

Tories up in Ontario, but down in Quebec.

New poll

Hot off the press (there are benefits to being awake at 4:30am :p) A new poll, seen on the Toronto Star website:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/624337
We will do a projection very shortly.

We are now on twitter

http://twitter.com/nixtuff

We are the first of the major canadian election prediction sites* to offer this service. We are pleased to be leading the way here at niXtuff.

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/
http://www.trendlines.ca/
http://www.electionprediction.org/

New Poll

We've added the new Harris-Decima poll to our matrix, however there is no overall change to our numbers, however many conservative ridings are now at striking distance for the Liberals and NDP

First BC Projections

The most recent poll, from Mustel, would yield the following results:
BCL - 71
NDP - 14

This seems a bit high for the Liberals. The NDP were recorded up by 5 points in an Angus Reid poll from November 2008.
NDP-51
BCL-34

An Ipsos poll, also from November 2008 would yield the following results:
BCL - 63
NDP - 20
GRN - 2
Very good for the Greens.

We, however, feel the most representative poll is the March 25th poll from Angus Reid, showing the Liberals at 43%, the NDP at 37%, and the Greens at 13%. These numbers would yield the following results:
BCL-53
NDP-32

Our official projection, however, as of this time, is as follows:
BCL-50
NDP-35

BC Election Update.

Thanks to Professor Werner Antweiler from the Saunder School of Business at UBC, we now have the proper redistributed riding data for the BC 2009 election, and I'm happy to announce, we will officially be following it, with an official projection to come before the polls close on election night.

The good professor and UBC are well known for running this popular projection page http://esm.ubc.ca/forecast.php which is used by many in the field of election projections as a useful first stop resource. Our own ElectoMatic shares many of the same assumptions that the UBC ESM forecasters do.

New Poll

We've added the new ekos poll to our matrix, as well we've re-balanced the matrix itself to 'clean' it, so to speak. Our numbers are as follows:

Lib - 123
CPC - 105
BQ - 50
NDP - 30

Sub-Regions:

Atlantic
Lib - 21
CPC - 7
NDP - 4

Quebec
BQ - 50
Lib - 21
CPC - 4

Ontario
Lib - 63
CPC - 33
NDP - 10

West
CPC - 61
Lib - 18
NDP - 16


British Columbia is where the trend is strongest. Our current numbers

CPC - 15
Lib - 11
NDP - 10