As my old-time followers will know, I use a self built spreadsheet program called the ElectoMatic to project elections. My old-time followers will also know that I decided to give out this program for free. Anyone looking for the current Quebec one can find it here (along with a sneak peak at my current projection - which changes sometimes hourly)
http://www.mediafire.com/view/?gs8ww8789ddffxr
I've made it somewhat user-friendly, but remember too that I've been tinkering with this file multiple times a day, and all the various random calculations on it might not make much sense.
My new followers might wonder why they need to follow me if they have the magic machine I use to project all my numbers. The answer to that is simple really. Anyone can have a math-based projection, but not many have accurate math-based projections.
http://calgarygrit.blogspot.ca/2011/05/predicting-unexpected.html
My projections (2011 sadly was on my website that now is owned by an adult company selling... toys) were #1 of anyone offering individual riding by riding projections. Why? I deviated from the math and used my gut.
My gut, sadly, is not available. Knowing where and how to make additions, and what other calculations to make (for example, I don't think anyone out there agrees on a single ADQ-to-CAQ calculation regimen) is the key to making everything work.
The base program will always be free, but the analysis and "Teddy Touch" will always be confined to my blog. Though the program is free, I ask that anyone using it to make projections mention me and this blog. You don't have to do so for every last projection you make, but 2 or 3 times during a writ period would be greatly appreciated.
Showing posts with label ElectoMatic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ElectoMatic. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Monday, November 9, 2009
By-Elections
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In Cumberland in NS, the Tories have won with about 45% over the NDP at 25%. This is what the ElectoMatic was suggesting.
In Hoch. the Bloc won with the NDP in second, narrowly ahead of the Liberals; again in line with the ElectoMatic.
In Montm. the Tories won, something that the ElectoMatic did not forsee at all, though as noted in my earlier projection there is a strong right-wing base in the riding.
In New West. in BC, the NDP is cruising towards a victory of a larger margin than projected by the ElectoMatic.
Sorry, no extra data today!
In Cumberland in NS, the Tories have won with about 45% over the NDP at 25%. This is what the ElectoMatic was suggesting.
In Hoch. the Bloc won with the NDP in second, narrowly ahead of the Liberals; again in line with the ElectoMatic.
In Montm. the Tories won, something that the ElectoMatic did not forsee at all, though as noted in my earlier projection there is a strong right-wing base in the riding.
In New West. in BC, the NDP is cruising towards a victory of a larger margin than projected by the ElectoMatic.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Something New
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Wanted to give notice that I am going to create something new for everyone.
I am going to create a small table so that I can display riding by riding results easily, rather than having to copy it as in my other post showing all the votes.
The up side is that I can do all 308 ridings in a single image.
The down side is that margins of victory will not be clear.
After I create this I will attempt to update it to show the margin.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Wanted to give notice that I am going to create something new for everyone.
I am going to create a small table so that I can display riding by riding results easily, rather than having to copy it as in my other post showing all the votes.
The up side is that I can do all 308 ridings in a single image.
The down side is that margins of victory will not be clear.
After I create this I will attempt to update it to show the margin.
Sorry, no extra data today!
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