<-More below the fold!
New Leger polls are out showing provincial and federal polling data. I've combined this newest poll with the past two to get a better average. I have used the breakdown between Francophones and Non-Francophones
Francophone
Provincial
(P)PQ - 47
(L)PLQ - 31
(A)ADQ - 9
(Q)QS - 7
(V)PV - 4
Federal
B - 47
L - 20
C - 16
N - 16
G - 6
Non-Francophone
Provincial
L - 73
P - 9
B - 6
A - 4
Q - 4
Federal
L - 43
C - 21
N - 18
B - 8
G - 6
More below the fold
I've done this so I can examine the difference between federal and provincial numbers.
Among Francophones you can see both the Bloc and PQ at 47%. These are, for a large part, the same voters. The Greens have 6% federally and 4% provincially, again, mostly the same voters. What is more interesting are the other parties.
The NDP takes 15%, while QS has only taken 7%, about half that. Meanwhile, the Tories have 16%, but the ADQ only has 9%, roughly 2/3rds of the vote. The provincial Liberals suck up these voters, taking 31% compared to the federal party at 20%.
Among non-Francophones, we see the PQ at 9% and the Bloc at 8%, while the Greens have 4% on both levels. These parties have the best relation between federal and provincial support levels. Both the ADQ and QS are tied at 4%, while the CPC and NDP have 21% and 18% respectively (this is within the margin of error) This translates to 1/5th support. Again, we see the PLQ sucking up the difference, taking an astounding 73% of non-francophones, while the federal party has only 43% support.
I will be keeping track of future polls to see if these support ratios stand.
Showing posts with label Quebec Election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Quebec Election. Show all posts
Saturday, February 20, 2010
Saturday, January 23, 2010
And so what of the ADQ?
-
My last post on Quebec touches on the ADQ's problems, but what of them? What is next? Lets for a moment take a look at another provincial-only right-wing party. The Wildrose Alliance. They are, at the moment, polling for government in Alberta, but what of them before they became "hot"?
To fully understand what happened in Alberta, you have to go all the way back to the 1971 election of the PC Party. In 1971, and following this in 1975 and 1979, Social Credit remained the official opposition. In 1982, 2 members of the party started their own party, and managed to get re-elected, and take 12% of the vote. In 86 a western separatist party took 5% of the vote. In fact, outside of 89 and 2001, there has always been some kind of right-opposition in Alberta.
Lets glance back at Quebec for a moment. In 1985, the PC Party made an entrance, and took a whole 1% of the vote. In 1989, there was no major right-wing opponent to the Liberals, but outside of this, there also, like Alberta, been a right-wing opposition party. Recently, that has been the ADQ. Now, back to Alberta. In 1997 a man named Randy Thorsteinson lead the Alberta Social Credit party though an election and brought it to within spitting distance of the NDP. He later quit due to precived bias against him (he is Mormon) Thorsteinson went on to found the Alberta Alliance, which won a seat in the 2004 provincial election, electing Paul Hinman, also a Mormon. As the only MLA, Hinman went on to become leader. By the 2008 election, a new party, the Wildrose Party had spring up as another right-wing alternative. It had the big names, and big dollars, but lacked the grassroots organization and in-place party machine the Alberta Alliance did. The two decided to merge and throw in their chances with a single party. Although they came very close to re-electing Hinman, they failed. Now it is 2010. The party has a new leader, they found a seat for Hinman, have two floor crossers, and are polling near 40%.
So, what does this mean for Quebec? It means, in short, the ADQ may be dead in a few years, but the "ADQ" may yet take government. How? The same way Reform Party member Stephen Harper become Prime Minister. Though mergers, party re-branding, and other such things. There were roomers a few years ago that should Charest ever lose government, that the federal Conservatives would make a serious attempt to organize a provincial party in Quebec. How much water this holds is unknown, but the fact that it is a possibility does mean a possible bittersweet end to the ADQ. Clearly the ADQ was never able to move beyond Dumont, but one thing they did gain was a present party machine, and grassroots connections. Even if many of their supporters have drifted, those who were once "in the know" likely remember others "in the know" making connections easy to re-establish.
I for one feel that this is the path the ADQ is going to be heading down. Weather it changes it's name, or merges with some upstart party, I do not see the ADQ in it's current form lasting for very much longer, while at the same time I do not see the idea of a right-wing francophone opposition party vanishing any time soon.
Sorry, no extra data today!
My last post on Quebec touches on the ADQ's problems, but what of them? What is next? Lets for a moment take a look at another provincial-only right-wing party. The Wildrose Alliance. They are, at the moment, polling for government in Alberta, but what of them before they became "hot"?
To fully understand what happened in Alberta, you have to go all the way back to the 1971 election of the PC Party. In 1971, and following this in 1975 and 1979, Social Credit remained the official opposition. In 1982, 2 members of the party started their own party, and managed to get re-elected, and take 12% of the vote. In 86 a western separatist party took 5% of the vote. In fact, outside of 89 and 2001, there has always been some kind of right-opposition in Alberta.
Lets glance back at Quebec for a moment. In 1985, the PC Party made an entrance, and took a whole 1% of the vote. In 1989, there was no major right-wing opponent to the Liberals, but outside of this, there also, like Alberta, been a right-wing opposition party. Recently, that has been the ADQ. Now, back to Alberta. In 1997 a man named Randy Thorsteinson lead the Alberta Social Credit party though an election and brought it to within spitting distance of the NDP. He later quit due to precived bias against him (he is Mormon) Thorsteinson went on to found the Alberta Alliance, which won a seat in the 2004 provincial election, electing Paul Hinman, also a Mormon. As the only MLA, Hinman went on to become leader. By the 2008 election, a new party, the Wildrose Party had spring up as another right-wing alternative. It had the big names, and big dollars, but lacked the grassroots organization and in-place party machine the Alberta Alliance did. The two decided to merge and throw in their chances with a single party. Although they came very close to re-electing Hinman, they failed. Now it is 2010. The party has a new leader, they found a seat for Hinman, have two floor crossers, and are polling near 40%.
So, what does this mean for Quebec? It means, in short, the ADQ may be dead in a few years, but the "ADQ" may yet take government. How? The same way Reform Party member Stephen Harper become Prime Minister. Though mergers, party re-branding, and other such things. There were roomers a few years ago that should Charest ever lose government, that the federal Conservatives would make a serious attempt to organize a provincial party in Quebec. How much water this holds is unknown, but the fact that it is a possibility does mean a possible bittersweet end to the ADQ. Clearly the ADQ was never able to move beyond Dumont, but one thing they did gain was a present party machine, and grassroots connections. Even if many of their supporters have drifted, those who were once "in the know" likely remember others "in the know" making connections easy to re-establish.
I for one feel that this is the path the ADQ is going to be heading down. Weather it changes it's name, or merges with some upstart party, I do not see the ADQ in it's current form lasting for very much longer, while at the same time I do not see the idea of a right-wing francophone opposition party vanishing any time soon.
Sorry, no extra data today!
Friday, January 22, 2010
Quebec
- MORE BELOW THE FOLD!
Recently, over at 308.blogspot they've claimed that with current poll numbers, the ADQ could be eliminated from the map. I wanted to check to see just how true this was. They are currently sitting on near half the vote they took last time; halving their vote in every riding would indeed wipe them from the board. Only two of their MNA's have seats that they could realistically win in the next election, and that is presuming a strong showing. In reality, it is going to come down to weather or not their leader can hold on to his own seat. Right now it is not looking good.
So how are things looking for the other parties. Well lets examine this using Quebec's two 'communities'.
First, among francophone.
PQ - 50%
PLQ - 30%
QS - 8%
ADQ - 7%
PV - 4% (AKA the Greens)
And among non-francophones
PLQ - 77%
PV - 8%
PQ - 7%
QS - 3%
ADQ - 1%
When combined you get:
PQ - 41%
PLQ - 39%
QS - 7%
ADQ - 6%
PV - 5%
The most interesting thing to note here is not the lack of support for the PQ or ADQ among non-francophones, as this has always been the case, but the fact that the Green Party is #2 among this group. Perhaps it is of little real use, but interesting to note nonetheless.
Below the fold, regional breakdowns, as well federal information.
There is also a region by region breakdown. In the Montreal area...
PLQ - 40%
PQ - 37%
QS - 9%
PV - 7%
ADQ - 5%
in the Quebec city area...
PLQ - 37%
PQ - 35%
ADQ - 15% (this is good news fro them)
QS - 8%
PV - 4%
The last figure for the ADQ may mean they might be able to hold on to their seats, but it is iffy at best.
Federal numbers
BQ - 40%
Lib - 23%
CPC - 17%
NDP - 15%
Grn - 4%
Among Francophones
BQ - 48%
Lib - 18%
CPC - 15%
NDP - 15%
Grn - 3%
Among Non-Francophones
Lib - 43%
CPC - 22%
NDP - 19%
Grn - 8%
BQ - 7%
Again, we note the Greens do better among non-francohphones
Montreal
BQ - 36%
Lib - 27%
NDP - 18%
CPC - 12%
Grn - 6%
And Quebec City
CPC - 30%
BQ - 30%
NDP - 20%
Lib - 14%
Grn - 4%
Recently, over at 308.blogspot they've claimed that with current poll numbers, the ADQ could be eliminated from the map. I wanted to check to see just how true this was. They are currently sitting on near half the vote they took last time; halving their vote in every riding would indeed wipe them from the board. Only two of their MNA's have seats that they could realistically win in the next election, and that is presuming a strong showing. In reality, it is going to come down to weather or not their leader can hold on to his own seat. Right now it is not looking good.
So how are things looking for the other parties. Well lets examine this using Quebec's two 'communities'.
First, among francophone.
PQ - 50%
PLQ - 30%
QS - 8%
ADQ - 7%
PV - 4% (AKA the Greens)
And among non-francophones
PLQ - 77%
PV - 8%
PQ - 7%
QS - 3%
ADQ - 1%
When combined you get:
PQ - 41%
PLQ - 39%
QS - 7%
ADQ - 6%
PV - 5%
The most interesting thing to note here is not the lack of support for the PQ or ADQ among non-francophones, as this has always been the case, but the fact that the Green Party is #2 among this group. Perhaps it is of little real use, but interesting to note nonetheless.
Below the fold, regional breakdowns, as well federal information.
There is also a region by region breakdown. In the Montreal area...
PLQ - 40%
PQ - 37%
QS - 9%
PV - 7%
ADQ - 5%
in the Quebec city area...
PLQ - 37%
PQ - 35%
ADQ - 15% (this is good news fro them)
QS - 8%
PV - 4%
The last figure for the ADQ may mean they might be able to hold on to their seats, but it is iffy at best.
Federal numbers
BQ - 40%
Lib - 23%
CPC - 17%
NDP - 15%
Grn - 4%
Among Francophones
BQ - 48%
Lib - 18%
CPC - 15%
NDP - 15%
Grn - 3%
Among Non-Francophones
Lib - 43%
CPC - 22%
NDP - 19%
Grn - 8%
BQ - 7%
Again, we note the Greens do better among non-francohphones
Montreal
BQ - 36%
Lib - 27%
NDP - 18%
CPC - 12%
Grn - 6%
And Quebec City
CPC - 30%
BQ - 30%
NDP - 20%
Lib - 14%
Grn - 4%
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Info on the provinces
Province by Province:
Newfoundland is not expecting an election until 2011. There is no sign either the Liberals or NDP could knock off the Tories, who are, at this time, expected to win another large majority.
Prince Edward Island is also not expecting an election until 2011, and as above, the government is expected to retain it's majority.
New Brunswick is likely to see an election in 2010 or early 2011, and as with the above, the government is expected to win, however by a much smaller margin (though still a majority)
The Yukon could have an election by next year. Due to the political nature of the territory, any predictions would be closer to 'guesses' as personality plays a big role. Any party could potentially win, but chances are if the Government goes down it will be to the Liberals and not the NDP. If I had to 'guess' I'd put my money on a Liberal minority.
Quebec will not have an election until 2012 or 2013. Any 'predictions' this far out would also be 'guesses'. My 'guess' is a PQ majority.
Manitoba will be set for an election in 2011 or even 2012. The NDP will by this point be seen as a "tired and old" government and could well lose to the PC Party, however the current government is still popular, and it can expected to be a close race. My money is on the NDP.
Saskatchewan will also be due for an election around 2011. There is a history in this province of electing governments to a minimum of two terms, and unless the government manages to botch it, I expect this to continue.
Alberta's next election will happen around 2012. The PC Party can, again, be expected to cruise to victory with a large majority. I do, however, expect the Liberals to win a 'surprisingly' large number of seats, especially in Calgary, and potentially set themselves up for a win in 2016.
Ontario is a more interesting case. For decades it elected PC governments, mostly to majorities but some minorities, and the PC Party governed in a moderate "Red Tory" style. Since the mid 80's, however, this has not been the case. John Tory should have won the last Ontario election, but his poor campaigning lost it for him. Now the Ontario PC Party has shifted to the right yet again, while Ontarians have not indicated that they want this. There is a very good likelihood that this will push the Liberals to a third victory, one that will outlast McGunity (who is a very weak premier) If current trends continue, and nothing suggests they will not, the Ontario Liberals will become the new dynasty. This, coupled with Federal success in the provinces, will allow Ontario to take on the role abandon by Quebec in the 80's, and become the Liberal party's new "bedrock" of support.
Finally we come to the two provinces with elections coming up.
Nova Scotia has a potential for an election this spring. The Liberals are trigger happy as polls show them as the #2 party. The NDP, while quiet, would also be happy as they have been polling over 35% since the last election and would likely win a very strong minority or even a weak majority in any election. Current trends point towards a weak majority for the NDP, as voters in the province are becoming more comfortable with the idea of an NDP government (IE, it does not scare them anymore) and are likely to jump on the bandwagon and vote for the winner. The Liberals meanwhile could well supplant the PC Party as the second most popular party in the province, and become the official opposition. Should this happen, however, it will likely mean that minority governments are still in the future for this province.
BC has an election scheduled to take place in exactly one month. While individual polls have jumped about, the general trend has been stagnant since the middle of the last election. This is also a general trend that was, generally, true for most of BC's modern history. In short; the governing party is a free-market coalition of all sorts that tends to win 60% of the seats, while the main opposition, socialist in nature, wins the other 40%. This would gives us numbers of 51 and 34, and I still expect the final result to be close to this, though likely with a few more seat for the NDP.
Newfoundland is not expecting an election until 2011. There is no sign either the Liberals or NDP could knock off the Tories, who are, at this time, expected to win another large majority.
Prince Edward Island is also not expecting an election until 2011, and as above, the government is expected to retain it's majority.
New Brunswick is likely to see an election in 2010 or early 2011, and as with the above, the government is expected to win, however by a much smaller margin (though still a majority)
The Yukon could have an election by next year. Due to the political nature of the territory, any predictions would be closer to 'guesses' as personality plays a big role. Any party could potentially win, but chances are if the Government goes down it will be to the Liberals and not the NDP. If I had to 'guess' I'd put my money on a Liberal minority.
Quebec will not have an election until 2012 or 2013. Any 'predictions' this far out would also be 'guesses'. My 'guess' is a PQ majority.
Manitoba will be set for an election in 2011 or even 2012. The NDP will by this point be seen as a "tired and old" government and could well lose to the PC Party, however the current government is still popular, and it can expected to be a close race. My money is on the NDP.
Saskatchewan will also be due for an election around 2011. There is a history in this province of electing governments to a minimum of two terms, and unless the government manages to botch it, I expect this to continue.
Alberta's next election will happen around 2012. The PC Party can, again, be expected to cruise to victory with a large majority. I do, however, expect the Liberals to win a 'surprisingly' large number of seats, especially in Calgary, and potentially set themselves up for a win in 2016.
Ontario is a more interesting case. For decades it elected PC governments, mostly to majorities but some minorities, and the PC Party governed in a moderate "Red Tory" style. Since the mid 80's, however, this has not been the case. John Tory should have won the last Ontario election, but his poor campaigning lost it for him. Now the Ontario PC Party has shifted to the right yet again, while Ontarians have not indicated that they want this. There is a very good likelihood that this will push the Liberals to a third victory, one that will outlast McGunity (who is a very weak premier) If current trends continue, and nothing suggests they will not, the Ontario Liberals will become the new dynasty. This, coupled with Federal success in the provinces, will allow Ontario to take on the role abandon by Quebec in the 80's, and become the Liberal party's new "bedrock" of support.
Finally we come to the two provinces with elections coming up.
Nova Scotia has a potential for an election this spring. The Liberals are trigger happy as polls show them as the #2 party. The NDP, while quiet, would also be happy as they have been polling over 35% since the last election and would likely win a very strong minority or even a weak majority in any election. Current trends point towards a weak majority for the NDP, as voters in the province are becoming more comfortable with the idea of an NDP government (IE, it does not scare them anymore) and are likely to jump on the bandwagon and vote for the winner. The Liberals meanwhile could well supplant the PC Party as the second most popular party in the province, and become the official opposition. Should this happen, however, it will likely mean that minority governments are still in the future for this province.
BC has an election scheduled to take place in exactly one month. While individual polls have jumped about, the general trend has been stagnant since the middle of the last election. This is also a general trend that was, generally, true for most of BC's modern history. In short; the governing party is a free-market coalition of all sorts that tends to win 60% of the seats, while the main opposition, socialist in nature, wins the other 40%. This would gives us numbers of 51 and 34, and I still expect the final result to be close to this, though likely with a few more seat for the NDP.
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Quebec Election, results
Barring a recount, the results appear to be
PLQ - 66
PQ - 51
ADQ - 7
QS - 1
This is a large enough majority for Charest to work with. At some points earlier in the night it appeared he might only win 63, 64, or 65 seats; in which case a single by-election loss or defection could destroy his majority. He has a nice comfort zone to work with here.
The big story of the night, at least from the way I see it, is the seat win by the QS. What will all of this mean? Does the PQ have to worry about bleeding votes to the left? Does the ADQ have to worry about being replaced as the "other" party? Does the PLQ have to worry about a new party that can win seats on Montreal in a way the PQ never could? Time will tell I suppose, for all we know the QS will go the way of the Alberta Alliance and be wiped off the map next election.
As for the predictions, I think it's safe to say yet again that we were all off. One problem that I see is that there are so many predicto sites out there run by a single person. One person with one method can fail, we here at niXtuff will be looking into this issue in the coming days.
The ADQ over-preformed most expectations taking 7 seats, everyone had them at 4. If these three extra seats were added to the PLQ total it would reach 69, which is in the range of many predictions. The PQ also over preformed, and our last-second call for the PQ in Mercier is as close as it gets to anyone expecting a QS victory. There are still a few seats that were close, shefford for example, where a recount may turn the result over. We will keep our eyes open and keep you informed.
Dumont has decided to call it quits. As we've mentioned earlier, Eric Caire is the only ADQ "star" who had a chance at winning. He did win. We project he will be the next leader of the ADQ.
PLQ - 66
PQ - 51
ADQ - 7
QS - 1
This is a large enough majority for Charest to work with. At some points earlier in the night it appeared he might only win 63, 64, or 65 seats; in which case a single by-election loss or defection could destroy his majority. He has a nice comfort zone to work with here.
The big story of the night, at least from the way I see it, is the seat win by the QS. What will all of this mean? Does the PQ have to worry about bleeding votes to the left? Does the ADQ have to worry about being replaced as the "other" party? Does the PLQ have to worry about a new party that can win seats on Montreal in a way the PQ never could? Time will tell I suppose, for all we know the QS will go the way of the Alberta Alliance and be wiped off the map next election.
As for the predictions, I think it's safe to say yet again that we were all off. One problem that I see is that there are so many predicto sites out there run by a single person. One person with one method can fail, we here at niXtuff will be looking into this issue in the coming days.
The ADQ over-preformed most expectations taking 7 seats, everyone had them at 4. If these three extra seats were added to the PLQ total it would reach 69, which is in the range of many predictions. The PQ also over preformed, and our last-second call for the PQ in Mercier is as close as it gets to anyone expecting a QS victory. There are still a few seats that were close, shefford for example, where a recount may turn the result over. We will keep our eyes open and keep you informed.
Dumont has decided to call it quits. As we've mentioned earlier, Eric Caire is the only ADQ "star" who had a chance at winning. He did win. We project he will be the next leader of the ADQ.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Quebec Election, update
Sadly, this will be the last update before I head off to work.
The Liberals are back in majority territory (just barely), but clearly it will not be as large a majority as we had projected. This is partly due to PQ strength, and the ADQ doing better than expected.
PLQ - 67
PQ - 50
ADQ - 7
QS - 1
The Liberals are back in majority territory (just barely), but clearly it will not be as large a majority as we had projected. This is partly due to PQ strength, and the ADQ doing better than expected.
PLQ - 67
PQ - 50
ADQ - 7
QS - 1
Quebec Election, counting votes
PLQ is down to 61 seats according to the CBC
PLQ - 61 (minority)
PQ - 53
ADQ - 9
QS - 1
PLQ - 61 (minority)
PQ - 53
ADQ - 9
QS - 1
Quebec Election, current standings
If these numbers hold, it could be big trouble for the PLQ.
PLQ - 64
PQ - 50
ADQ - 9
QS - 1
Again, it is still early.
PLQ - 64
PQ - 50
ADQ - 9
QS - 1
Again, it is still early.
Quebec Election partial results
Current leading/elected standings:
PLQ - 69
PQ - 45
ADQ - 5
QS - 1
We note that it took until our very last update before we dropped our projection for the single QS seat. We had it close all along.
PLQ - 69
PQ - 45
ADQ - 5
QS - 1
We note that it took until our very last update before we dropped our projection for the single QS seat. We had it close all along.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Quebec Election - Final
PLQ 75 (MAJORITY)
PQ 46
ADQ 4
ADQ
Chauveau
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Lotbinière
Rivière-du-Loup
PQ
Abitibi-Ouest
Beauharnois
Berthier
Bertrand
Blainville
Borduas
Bourget
Chambly
Champlain
Charlevoix
Deux-Montagnes
Drummond
Dubuc
Duplessis
Gouin
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Johnson
Joliette
Labelle
Lac-Saint-Jean
L'Assomption
Marguerite-D'Youville
Marie-Victorin
Masson
Matapédia
Mercier
Mirabel
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Prévost
René-Lévesque
Richelieu
Rimouski
Roberval
Rosemont
Rousseau
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
Saint-Maurice
Taillon
Taschereau
Terrebonne
Ungava
Vachon
Verchères
PLQ
Abitibi-Est
Acadie
Anjou
Argenteuil
Arthabaska
Beauce-Nord
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
Bonaventure
Bourassa-Sauvé
Brome-Missisquoi
Chapleau
Charlesbourg
Châteauguay
Chicoutimi
Chomedey
Crémazie
D'Arcy-McGee
Fabre
Frontenac
Gaspé
Gatineau
Groulx
Hull
Huntingdon
Iberville
Jacques-Cartier
Jean-Lesage
Jeanne-Mance—Viger
Jean-Talon
Jonquière
Kamouraska-Témiscouata
La Peltrie
La Pinière
La Prairie
LaFontaine
Laporte
Laurier-Dorion
Laval-des-Rapides
Laviolette
Lévis
Louis-Hébert
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Marquette
Maskinongé
Matane
Mégantic-Compton
Mille-Îles
Montmagny-L'Islet
Montmorency
Mont-Royal
Nelligan
Nicolet-Yamaska
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Orford
Outremont
Papineau
Pontiac
Portneuf
Richmond
Robert-Baldwin
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Saint-François
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
Saint-Laurent
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Soulanges
Trois-Rivières
Vanier
Vaudreuil
Verdun
Viau
Vimont
Westmount—Saint-Louis
PQ 46
ADQ 4
ADQ
Chauveau
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Lotbinière
Rivière-du-Loup
PQ
Abitibi-Ouest
Beauharnois
Berthier
Bertrand
Blainville
Borduas
Bourget
Chambly
Champlain
Charlevoix
Deux-Montagnes
Drummond
Dubuc
Duplessis
Gouin
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Johnson
Joliette
Labelle
Lac-Saint-Jean
L'Assomption
Marguerite-D'Youville
Marie-Victorin
Masson
Matapédia
Mercier
Mirabel
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Prévost
René-Lévesque
Richelieu
Rimouski
Roberval
Rosemont
Rousseau
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
Saint-Maurice
Taillon
Taschereau
Terrebonne
Ungava
Vachon
Verchères
PLQ
Abitibi-Est
Acadie
Anjou
Argenteuil
Arthabaska
Beauce-Nord
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
Bonaventure
Bourassa-Sauvé
Brome-Missisquoi
Chapleau
Charlesbourg
Châteauguay
Chicoutimi
Chomedey
Crémazie
D'Arcy-McGee
Fabre
Frontenac
Gaspé
Gatineau
Groulx
Hull
Huntingdon
Iberville
Jacques-Cartier
Jean-Lesage
Jeanne-Mance—Viger
Jean-Talon
Jonquière
Kamouraska-Témiscouata
La Peltrie
La Pinière
La Prairie
LaFontaine
Laporte
Laurier-Dorion
Laval-des-Rapides
Laviolette
Lévis
Louis-Hébert
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Marquette
Maskinongé
Matane
Mégantic-Compton
Mille-Îles
Montmagny-L'Islet
Montmorency
Mont-Royal
Nelligan
Nicolet-Yamaska
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Orford
Outremont
Papineau
Pontiac
Portneuf
Richmond
Robert-Baldwin
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Saint-François
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
Saint-Laurent
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Soulanges
Trois-Rivières
Vanier
Vaudreuil
Verdun
Viau
Vimont
Westmount—Saint-Louis
Quebec Election
Final list coming shortly.
ADQ solid
Chauveau
Lotbinière
PLQ solid
Beauce-Nord
Montmorency
Abitibi-Est
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Nicolet-Yamaska
PQ solid
Mercier
Marguerite-D'Youville
Saint-Jean
Chambly
PLQ 75 (MAJORITY)
PQ 46
ADQ 4
ADQ solid
Chauveau
Lotbinière
PLQ solid
Beauce-Nord
Montmorency
Abitibi-Est
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Nicolet-Yamaska
PQ solid
Mercier
Marguerite-D'Youville
Saint-Jean
Chambly
PLQ 75 (MAJORITY)
PQ 46
ADQ 4
Quebec Election
PLQ vs PQ (10)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Marguerite-D'Youville
Nicolet-Yamaska
Saint-Jean
ADQ vs PLQ (3)
Beauce-Nord
Chauveau
Montmorency
ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lotbinière * (Due to an earlier recording error, this was listed as Levis, which is actually solidly PLQ)
PQ vs QS (1)
Mercier
Solid PLQ +2
Matane
Vanier
Solid PQ +2
Roberval
Saint-Hyacinthe
PLQ 66-80 (MAJORITY)
PQ 42-54
ADQ 2-6
QS 0-1
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Marguerite-D'Youville
Nicolet-Yamaska
Saint-Jean
ADQ vs PLQ (3)
Beauce-Nord
Chauveau
Montmorency
ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lotbinière * (Due to an earlier recording error, this was listed as Levis, which is actually solidly PLQ)
PQ vs QS (1)
Mercier
Solid PLQ +2
Matane
Vanier
Solid PQ +2
Roberval
Saint-Hyacinthe
PLQ 66-80 (MAJORITY)
PQ 42-54
ADQ 2-6
QS 0-1
Saturday, December 6, 2008
PLQ clinches majority
Our most recent update has the PLQ clinching a majority of seats.
Solid PLQ +8 (64)
Arthabaska
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
La Peltrie
Crémazie
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Groulx
Louis-Hébert
Solid PQ +3 (40)
Gouin
Saint-Maurice
Ungava
BATTLEGROUND SEATS (19)
PLQ vs PQ (13)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Marguerite-D'Youville
Matane
Nicolet-Yamaska
Roberval
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
ADQ vs PLQ (4)
Beauce-Nord
Chauveau
Montmorency
Vanier
ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lotbinière
PQ vs QS (1)
Mercier
PLQ 64-82 (MAJORITY)
PQ 40-55
ADQ 2-7
QS 0-1
Solid PLQ +8 (64)
Arthabaska
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
La Peltrie
Crémazie
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Groulx
Louis-Hébert
Solid PQ +3 (40)
Gouin
Saint-Maurice
Ungava
BATTLEGROUND SEATS (19)
PLQ vs PQ (13)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Marguerite-D'Youville
Matane
Nicolet-Yamaska
Roberval
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
ADQ vs PLQ (4)
Beauce-Nord
Chauveau
Montmorency
Vanier
ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lotbinière
PQ vs QS (1)
Mercier
PLQ 64-82 (MAJORITY)
PQ 40-55
ADQ 2-7
QS 0-1
Quebec Election
Here is our seat by seat projection for Quebec.
ADQ solid (2)
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière (ADQ)
Rivière-du-Loup (ADQ)
PQ solid (37)
Abitibi-Ouest
Beauharnois
Berthier
Bertrand
Blainville
Borduas
Bourget
Champlain
Charlevoix
Deux-Montagnes
Drummond
Dubuc
Duplessis
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Johnson
Joliette
Labelle
Lac-Saint-Jean
L'Assomption
Marie-Victorin
Masson
Matapédia
Mirabel
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Prévost
René-Lévesque
Richelieu
Rimouski
Rosemont
Rousseau
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques
Taillon
Taschereau
Terrebonne
Vachon
Verchères
PLQ solid (56)
Acadie
Anjou
Argenteuil
Bonaventure
Bourassa-Sauvé
Brome-Missisquoi
Chapleau
Charlesbourg
Châteauguay
Chomedey
D'Arcy-McGee
Fabre
Frontenac
Gatineau
Hull
Huntingdon
Jacques-Cartier
Jean-Lesage
Jeanne-Mance—Viger
Jean-Talon
Kamouraska-Témiscouata
La Pinière
LaFontaine
Laporte
Laurier-Dorion
Laval-des-Rapides
Laviolette
Lévis
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Marquette
Maskinongé
Mégantic-Compton
Mille-Îles
Montmagny-L'Islet
Mont-Royal
Nelligan
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Orford
Outremont
Papineau
Pontiac
Portneuf
Richmond
Robert-Baldwin
Saint-François
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
Saint-Laurent
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Soulanges
Trois-Rivières
Vaudreuil
Verdun
Viau
Vimont
Westmount—Saint-Louis
BATTLEGROUND SEATS (31)
PLQ vs PQ (19)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Crémazie
Gaspé
Groulx
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Louis-Hébert
Marguerite-D'Youville
Matane
Nicolet-Yamaska
Roberval
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
Saint-Maurice
Ungava
ADQ vs PLQ (9)
Arthabaska
Beauce-Nord
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
Chauveau
La Peltrie
Montmorency
Vanier
ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lévis
PQ vs QS (2)
Gouin
Mercier
The list of solid seats will not be published again. In the coming days the number of "battleground" seats will be reduced, and they will be assigned to particular parties.
PLQ 56-85
PQ 37-59
ADQ 2-12
QS 0-2
What's personally surprising is that when I ran the numbers, that QS seems to still be within striking range of some PQ seats. This may be due to imperfections on our mathematical modeling system however. Regardless, we've put them up there. Also note it's possible for the PQ to win the election. They'd need to be within 4.5% of the PLQ in order to do so (39% for the PLQ to 34.5% PQ means the PQ wins) but currently polls are showing the gap is larger than this.
ADQ solid (2)
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière (ADQ)
Rivière-du-Loup (ADQ)
PQ solid (37)
Abitibi-Ouest
Beauharnois
Berthier
Bertrand
Blainville
Borduas
Bourget
Champlain
Charlevoix
Deux-Montagnes
Drummond
Dubuc
Duplessis
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Johnson
Joliette
Labelle
Lac-Saint-Jean
L'Assomption
Marie-Victorin
Masson
Matapédia
Mirabel
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Prévost
René-Lévesque
Richelieu
Rimouski
Rosemont
Rousseau
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques
Taillon
Taschereau
Terrebonne
Vachon
Verchères
PLQ solid (56)
Acadie
Anjou
Argenteuil
Bonaventure
Bourassa-Sauvé
Brome-Missisquoi
Chapleau
Charlesbourg
Châteauguay
Chomedey
D'Arcy-McGee
Fabre
Frontenac
Gatineau
Hull
Huntingdon
Jacques-Cartier
Jean-Lesage
Jeanne-Mance—Viger
Jean-Talon
Kamouraska-Témiscouata
La Pinière
LaFontaine
Laporte
Laurier-Dorion
Laval-des-Rapides
Laviolette
Lévis
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Marquette
Maskinongé
Mégantic-Compton
Mille-Îles
Montmagny-L'Islet
Mont-Royal
Nelligan
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Orford
Outremont
Papineau
Pontiac
Portneuf
Richmond
Robert-Baldwin
Saint-François
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
Saint-Laurent
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Soulanges
Trois-Rivières
Vaudreuil
Verdun
Viau
Vimont
Westmount—Saint-Louis
BATTLEGROUND SEATS (31)
PLQ vs PQ (19)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Crémazie
Gaspé
Groulx
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Louis-Hébert
Marguerite-D'Youville
Matane
Nicolet-Yamaska
Roberval
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
Saint-Maurice
Ungava
ADQ vs PLQ (9)
Arthabaska
Beauce-Nord
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
Chauveau
La Peltrie
Montmorency
Vanier
ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lévis
PQ vs QS (2)
Gouin
Mercier
The list of solid seats will not be published again. In the coming days the number of "battleground" seats will be reduced, and they will be assigned to particular parties.
PLQ 56-85
PQ 37-59
ADQ 2-12
QS 0-2
What's personally surprising is that when I ran the numbers, that QS seems to still be within striking range of some PQ seats. This may be due to imperfections on our mathematical modeling system however. Regardless, we've put them up there. Also note it's possible for the PQ to win the election. They'd need to be within 4.5% of the PLQ in order to do so (39% for the PLQ to 34.5% PQ means the PQ wins) but currently polls are showing the gap is larger than this.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Quebec Election
Max and Mins for each party according to recent polling
PLQ = 61-82
PQ = 41-58
ADQ = 2-11
PLQ = 61-82
PQ = 41-58
ADQ = 2-11
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Quebec Election
PLQ 68
PQ 53
ADQ 4
The ADQ will likely win the following:
Riviere Du Loup
Chutes De La Chaudiere
Beauce Nord
Lotbiniere
And may also win the following:
Chauveau
La Peltrie
Vanier
We are also looking at the Lanaudiere and Laurentides areas to see if the ADQ has any strong candidates who might make a surprise showing on election night.
(UPDATE)
We've found three seats in those areas mentioned above (Which ring Montreal) where we would not be surprised if the ADQ managed to pull off an unexpected hold. They are Blainville, Mirabel, and Berthier. These three seats are held by somewhat strong MNAs, and were won by somewhat comfortable margins last time. While we do not see that they have the numbers to win, we do expect them to do better than others expect.
* Note. Our projections rely on our past weighting formula, but also have added in a new element of "trendlines" that attempts to show the trends before they happen, our projections are therefore for election day, and not for tomorrow, unlike other 'preidcto' sites.
PQ 53
ADQ 4
The ADQ will likely win the following:
Riviere Du Loup
Chutes De La Chaudiere
Beauce Nord
Lotbiniere
And may also win the following:
Chauveau
La Peltrie
Vanier
We are also looking at the Lanaudiere and Laurentides areas to see if the ADQ has any strong candidates who might make a surprise showing on election night.
(UPDATE)
We've found three seats in those areas mentioned above (Which ring Montreal) where we would not be surprised if the ADQ managed to pull off an unexpected hold. They are Blainville, Mirabel, and Berthier. These three seats are held by somewhat strong MNAs, and were won by somewhat comfortable margins last time. While we do not see that they have the numbers to win, we do expect them to do better than others expect.
* Note. Our projections rely on our past weighting formula, but also have added in a new element of "trendlines" that attempts to show the trends before they happen, our projections are therefore for election day, and not for tomorrow, unlike other 'preidcto' sites.
Saturday, November 22, 2008
The ADQ
Where do they have a shot at winning seats, and who is in those seats?
Likely to win some of all of these:
Rivere-Du-Loup (Mario Dumont)*
Chutes-De-La-Chaudiere (Marc Picard)*
Lotbiniere (Sylvie Roy)*
Beauce-Nord (Janvier Grondin)*
Chauveau (Gerard Deltell)
Unlikely to hold on to some or all of these:
Beauce-Sud (Claude Morin)
Vanier (Sylvain Legare)
La Peltrie (Éric Caire)**
Montmorency (Hubert Benoit)
Chicoutimi (Jean-Philippe Marin)
Matane (Denis Paquette)
* = one of the 4 members elected in 2003
** = one of the media's so-called "skilled" ADQ members.
Likely to win some of all of these:
Rivere-Du-Loup (Mario Dumont)*
Chutes-De-La-Chaudiere (Marc Picard)*
Lotbiniere (Sylvie Roy)*
Beauce-Nord (Janvier Grondin)*
Chauveau (Gerard Deltell)
Unlikely to hold on to some or all of these:
Beauce-Sud (Claude Morin)
Vanier (Sylvain Legare)
La Peltrie (Éric Caire)**
Montmorency (Hubert Benoit)
Chicoutimi (Jean-Philippe Marin)
Matane (Denis Paquette)
* = one of the 4 members elected in 2003
** = one of the media's so-called "skilled" ADQ members.
Quebec Election
New poll numbers from Nanos show the ADQ heading towards an unmitigated disaster. We've updated our trendlines.
PLQ - 68
PQ - 54
ADQ - 3
It's not outside of possibility that the ADQ could get shut out this election.
PLQ - 68
PQ - 54
ADQ - 3
It's not outside of possibility that the ADQ could get shut out this election.
Friday, November 21, 2008
Quebec Election Projection
Another 'rough' projection, given the general decline in the ADQ without any sign that things will pick up.
PLQ - 65
PQ - 54
ADQ - 6
PLQ - 65
PQ - 54
ADQ - 6
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