Analysis

So, what happened? A few things.

First, the CAQ fell apart in the past 24 hours. Voters thought "can I trust Legault and the CAQ with my vote? I don't really want to vote for Maoris and the PQ, or for Charest and the PLQ, but I don't know if I can trust Legault and the CAQ, humm" and decided "Naw, I can't trust em, they are just too unknown, worrysome, and untrustworthy."

Other voters remember the 2007 minority and seem to have gone to the PQ just to give someone a majority. A few voters even swung over to the PLQ.

In the end the result is clear, a stable PQ majority, with a stronger than expected result on the Island of Montreal, and in the 450 area around the city.

There is not much more I can say at this time that has not already been said.

Would another Minority look like 2007?

No.

The answer, as always, is in the numbers.


ADQ Experince (in years)
Dumont - 13
Grondin - 4
Picard - 4
Roy - 4
Legare - 3
TOTAL: 28 years and 41 MNAs
36 MNAs with no experince
1 MNA with experince for every 7 without
No alternate interests. The ADQ was built up by and around Dumont. No one with enough experience to even think of challenging Dumont. Election candidates that did not expect to win.

CAQ Experince (in years)
--Presuming they all get elected--
Legault - 11
Roy - 9
Caire - 5
Bonnardel - 5
Deltell - 4
Ratthe - 4
Charette - 4
Rebello - 4
Damphousse - 1
Levesque - 1
Schneeberger - 1
Gaudreau - 1
Benjamin - 1
Total: 51 years and (projected) 25 to 40 MNAs
27 MNAs with no experince (of 40)
1 MNA with experince for every 2 without
A merger of disaffected PQ members and the ADQ, token positions will have to be given out accordingly, causing a larger powerbase. People like Roy who rival Legault's time served in the legislature. Legault is not as strong an individual as Dumont. Election candidates that expect to win.

Any minority with the CAQ as either the official opposition or as the 3rd party will not be like when the ADQ came to town. There will be no "Dumont and his kids" stories. The CAQ team is far more experienced than the ADQ, and like the 2011 NDP, there are enough people with experience in the legislature to guide the new members though.

...Of course all of this presumes the CAQ is not the government. That's another story altogether. Keep in mind that the Ontario NDP victory of 1990 and the following government was so controversial that even the federal Liberals are feeling the after effects to this day! (Okay, lame attack, but point made)

More on the PQ's lost natural advantage

Analysis on the "how" over on Blunt Objects!