Fun polling numbers

I've gone though Leger polls since the CAQ was created to come up with some interesting numbers. First off, you might ask, why Leger? The answer is simple really, they've been polling Quebec for many decades, and, they poll much more often and consistently than other firms.

The highest and lowest for each party.
Quebec wide
PLQ - 33 - 22
PQ - 33 - 21
CAQ - 37 - 19

Montreal Area
PLQ - 35 - 21
PQ - 34 - 16
CAQ - 34 - 17

Quebec City Area
PLQ - 38 - 22
PQ - 33 - 14
CAQ - 46 - 24

Rest of Quebec
PLQ - 31 - 17
PQ - 41 - 19
CAQ - 43 - 20

I will be doing things with these numbers a bit later.

Quebec Polls

<-More below the fold!

New Leger polls are out showing provincial and federal polling data. I've combined this newest poll with the past two to get a better average. I have used the breakdown between Francophones and Non-Francophones

Francophone
Provincial
(P)PQ - 47
(L)PLQ - 31
(A)ADQ - 9
(Q)QS - 7
(V)PV - 4

Federal
B - 47
L - 20
C - 16
N - 16
G - 6

Non-Francophone
Provincial
L - 73
P - 9
B - 6
A - 4
Q - 4

Federal
L - 43
C - 21
N - 18
B - 8
G - 6

More below the fold

I've done this so I can examine the difference between federal and provincial numbers.

Among Francophones you can see both the Bloc and PQ at 47%. These are, for a large part, the same voters. The Greens have 6% federally and 4% provincially, again, mostly the same voters. What is more interesting are the other parties.

The NDP takes 15%, while QS has only taken 7%, about half that. Meanwhile, the Tories have 16%, but the ADQ only has 9%, roughly 2/3rds of the vote. The provincial Liberals suck up these voters, taking 31% compared to the federal party at 20%.

Among non-Francophones, we see the PQ at 9% and the Bloc at 8%, while the Greens have 4% on both levels. These parties have the best relation between federal and provincial support levels. Both the ADQ and QS are tied at 4%, while the CPC and NDP have 21% and 18% respectively (this is within the margin of error) This translates to 1/5th support. Again, we see the PLQ sucking up the difference, taking an astounding 73% of non-francophones, while the federal party has only 43% support.

I will be keeping track of future polls to see if these support ratios stand.

A look back

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With Parliament in the middle of a week off, and with no polls in the past few days, this is an excellent chance to take a look back.

Below is a chart showing our poll-based projections since the end of January of this year.



While the Liberals enjoyed a stint in first place during the summer, for most of the period, Harper's Tories have lead. The only dramatic swing has taken place within the last month. The chart mostly speaks for itself.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Polls

<- Click here to see the full post

All environics polls from the late 70's to 2006, below.

More polls for the Poll Bank

Atlantic Polls

Source: CRA

PEI
Lib - 57%
PC - 32%
ND - 7%
Grn - 4%

NB
Lib - 41%
PC - 40%
NDP - 16%
Grn - 3%

NL
PC - 72%
Lib - 19%
NDP - 8%

More poll tracking

More historic numbers
http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=664

Nova Scotia included
http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=592

I've used a simple elimination formula to find out Tory/SoCred numbers for BC and Saskatchewan.

In December 1993, BC Social Credit must have had near 25% support.
For most of the early 90's, Saskatchewans PC's must have had support between 20%-25%

Here are some historic federal numbers.
http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=405

Poll tracking.

While the folks over at Polling Report try to keep with the polls, this is a very difficult job to do, and often they get burnt out and cannot always update on time. Therefore, I've decided to start my own poll tracking! Check back for updates. Our first is provincial polls from Environics

Click Here