RidingByRiding: RidingByRiding

Monday, September 3, 2012

Riding By Riding (Quebec - Penultimate)

North of the St. Lawrence (excluding the Quebec Area)

The PQ is expected to win 16 seats here, but could win as many as 21 or as few as 14.
The PLQ is expected to win 7, but could win as few as 4.
The CAQ is expected to win 4, but could win as many as 6, or as few as 2.

South of the St. Lawrence (excluding the Quebec Area)

Unless a late-campaign poll comes in to save the day, Charest is gone. He will lose his riding.
The PQ is expected to win 17 seats, but could win as many as 18 or as few as 10
The CAQ is expected to win 8 seats, but could win as many as 12 or as few as 6.
The PLQ is not expected to win any seats, but could win up to 5.
Aussant of the Option Nationale could win his seat, but this is not expected.

Quebec Area

The CAQ is expected to win 12 seats, but could win as many as 14, or as few as 11.
The PLQ is expected to win 3 seats, but could win as many as 5, or as few as 1.
The PQ is expected to win 3 seats, but could win as many as 4, or as few as 2.
Marois will have no trouble getting elected in her own seat.

Montreal

The PLQ is expected to win 17 seats, but could win as many as 19, or as few as 15.
The PQ is expected to win 9, but could win as many as 10, or as few as 7.
QS is expected to win 2 seats, but could win as many as 3.
The CAQ is not expected to win any seats, but could win 1.
Khadir and David will both be elected.
The leader of the PVQ is expected to finish 4th in his riding.

The Corona

The PQ is expected to win 14 seats here, but could win as many as 22, or as few as 9.
The CAQ is expected to win 9, but could win as many as 11, or as few as 2.
The PLQ is expected to win 4 seats but could win as many as 7 or as few as 3.
Legault is expected to be elected in his riding.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

August 28th Projection

Tweetline: 63 #PQ | 32 #CAQ | 27 #PLQ | 2 #QS | 1 #ON | http://bit.ly/QsbZDD | #qc2012 Prévision des Election / Election Projection

I've further updated the numbers to match the trendlines. This means that the CAQ is higher in this projection than they are in the polls, while the PLQ is lower, and the PQ is stable, but, slightly lower as well. The expected trend is the CAQ will pick up steam.