The Senate, and The Election

The question on everyone's mind is how will this election change the party standings in the Senate... or rather, it should be.

Anyone with a list of Senator's birthdays, their party standings, and some math skills will know that on May 13 2011, a Liberal senator from Newfoundland will retire, and at this time, Stephen Harper, assuming he is still Prime Minister, could appoint enough Conservatives to fill the vacancies in the upper chamber to give his Conservative Party a majority. What most don't know is that a far more important date is January 2nd 2010. On this date, Jerry Grafstein, Liberal Senator for Ontario will retire. This will be the point in time where the Liberals will lose their majority in the Senate. More importantly, should Harper invoke the so-called "Mulroney Senate rule" and appoint 8 extra Senators, this is also the date when the Conservatives could count on a majority of their own. With Senate Reform being an issue for the government, we could concievabally see the Senate stacked in this way on such a date and have it quickly pass a Senate Reform bill.

Some wonder what the current party standings are in the Senate. I've outlined that below.

Lib - 53
CPC - 46
Ind - 6

Ters
CPC - 2
Lib - 1

BC
CPC - 4
Lib - 2

AB
Lib - 4
CPC - 1
Ind - 1

SK
CPC - 3
Lib - 3

MB
CPC - 3
Lib - 3

ON
Lib - 11
CPC - 10
Ind - 3

QC
Lib - 12
CPC - 10
Ind - 2

NB
Lib - 6
CPC - 4

NS
CPC - 6
Lib - 4

PE
Lib - 3
CPC - 1

NL
Lib - 4
CPC - 2


Note that 2 of the Independent Senators sit as "Progressive Conservatives". One was appointed by Joe Clark, while the other was appointed by Paul Martin. One of the Independent Senators is a former Liberal who is also now a former Conservative. The other three lean Liberal

Between now and January 2 2010, 1 Liberal from NL, 1 Ind from QC, and 2 Lib from ON will retire. Between then and May 13 2011, we add another Lib from ON, a Lib from QC, a CPC from QC, and a Lib from NL.