New Ekos Poll

A new Ekos poll is out, claiming to be the largest poll ever. We have our doubts, for one this poll appears to have been taken over a very long period of time. During the federal election with it's rolling polls, this is commonplace, but the polling companies do not add up all these numbers and claim it is really just one gigantic poll.

Ekos also has problems. Not only as they the firm that made the famous October 1987 poll with the NDP in first place nationally, but they also more recently and famously recorded the Canadian Alliance at it's lowest level ever (6%) nationally, as well as it's highest level ever (32%) just a year earlier. They had the Liberals over 65% at one point, and as far as I know, hold the record for both the high and low for each political party in the country. Ekos tends to ask other questions in their polls, but there is no evidence as to what they ask first. This can matter a great deal. Take Quebec for example. The Liberals constantly outpoll Premier Jean Charest. Asking someone if they like Charest or Marois, and then asking if they are voting Liberal or PQ is not really fair. Ekos has a history of picking up on swings, but also has a history of being off the mark. We will therefore not throw caution to the wind and super-weight this single poll from a firm with a bad record. We will, however, count it seriously. And without further adieu, the results of our new matrix:

NATIONAL
Lib - 123 - 34.08%
CPC - 110 - 32.09%
BQ - 44 - 9.30%
NDP - 31 - 16.20%
GRN - 0 - 7.33%

Atlantic
Lib - 21 - 41%
CPC - 7 - 32%
NDP - 5 - 22%

Quebec
BQ - 44 - 35.0%
Lib - 26 - 35.0%
CPC - 5 - 14.0%

Ontario
Lib - 59 - 40.5%
CPC - 36 - 34.5%
NDP - 11 - 15.0%

Prairies (central)
CPC - 20 - 47%
Lib - 4 - 23%
NDP - 4 - 23%

Alberta
CPC - 27 - 58%
Lib - 1 - 21%

British Columbia
CPC - 14 - 33%
Lib - 11 - 30%
NDP - 11 - 25%