New Projection

I've also included the CROP poll as reported at the 308 blog

NATIONAL

Lib - 121
CPC - 118
BQ - 44
NDP - 25


ONTARIO
Lib - 61
CPC - 38
NDP - 7


QUEBEC
BQ - 44
Lib - 24
CPC - 7


WEST
CPC - 66
Lib - 15
NDP - 14


ATLANTIC
Lib - 21
CPC - 7
NDP - 4

Why the sudden jump for the Liberals? Well most of these gains are in Ontario, despite only a 2 point swing in that province. We've reached the point in first-past-the-post systems where the vote for the leading party becomes very efficient. This is normally around 40% While the difference between 25% and 35% might mean a dozen seats, the difference between 35% and 45% could mean three dozen. Followed by another dozen between 45% and 55%; keeping in mind the votes received by the opposition matter for quite a bit as well.