Projection

I’ve decided to do a projection now for a few reasons. One, if we do get a new poll later today it will likely be only one, perhaps two polls. To mix them with the 2 polls from over a week ago does not sit right with me. Secondly, in the run up to the budget, we still expect to see more polls come out, ‘just in case’ there is an election.

Therefore, I’ve combined the 4 polls we do have since Ignatieff has become leader, and I’ve made our first official projection of 2009. It is as follows:

C = Conservatives
L = Liberals
N = New Democrats
B = Bloc Quebecois
G = Green Party
I = Independent

Ters
C-1
L-1
N-1

BC
C-19
L-11
N-6

AB
C-28

PR (Prairies. Sask and Man)
C-24
L-2
N-2

ON
C-50
L-50
N-6

QC
B-42
L-27
C-6

AT (Atlantic. NS, NB, PE, and NL)
L-17
C-10
N-5

TOTALS
C – 138
L – 108
B – 42
N – 20


No independents (Casey is not running and Arthur would likely lose if the Tories run someone – no reason to suggest they wont.) and no Greens (though Guelph would likely remain their strongest riding)