Note that Democratic Space updated thier last projections since we took note, so some of this may be off. Prelim numbers are as follows:
Avalon
We were right, as was EP. DS was off.
Central Nova - We were wrong
South Shore - We and EP were wrong
Tobique - We were wrong
Charlesbourg - We were wrong
Brossard - We were wrong (narrowly)
Hull - We were wrong
Roberval - DS was wrong, we and EP were right.
Beaches - We were wrong
Mississauga South - We and EP were wrong, DS was right
Welland - We were right
Brant - We were wrong
London West - We were right
Kenora - We were wrong, but so were they (It went CPC)
Saint Boniface - We were right
Palliser - we were wrong
Vancouver Kingsway - we were wrong, so was DS
Esquaimalt - We were wrong
Saanich - We were right, so was DS
Surrey North - We were wrong
Newton - We were wrong, so was DS
Nunavut - We were right, so was DS
So that's 17 to 6. There were a number of ridings (Mirimichi for example) that we were all wrong about. Regardless, this has unfortuantly been a failure and we have failed to acheive our goal of correctly predicting the election against the other major prediction websites, and all of us failed to predict the size of the tory minority.
1 comment:
Low voter turnout was certainly a factor. I wouldn't fault your methods, but the pollsters should have attempted to provide better data in order to correct for that. Low voter turnout tends to favour the CPC.
Also apparently a lot of young people (post-secondary students) were turned away at the polls because they lacked the identification with proof of address required under the new election law. CPC supporters tend to have fixed addresses, are less likely to have recently moved, and are generally older.
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