Quebec Debate and Projection

I'll be brief. Who won? David. Who lost? Legault.

Projection based on my interpretation of the results of the debate:

My feelings in short (more detail in a post in an hour or two)

Charest: As I suspected, nothing he did or would do mattered.
Marois: She really did well, she looked most like a Premier IMO, and has solidified her party's lead.
Legault: Too aggressive, everyone wanted to tear a strip off him, he looked unready.
David: Extremely strong performance. QS may be back on track for more than 2 seats.

FULL ANNOUNCEMENT

Alright, after some testing, I've been able to get the old blog working once more! This post will be somewhat short and include three sections. The first, a self explanatory section that will include these words I am typing right now. The second will be a link to a project I've been slowly working on. The last, my projection for the Quebec Election. I also want to say hello to anyone following from our sister blog at http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/ where I've been ranting from time to time.

Next, on to my project. I've been working on this for some months, though slowly. It is a wiki to compliment this blog. http://ridingbyriding.wikia.com/wiki/Ridingbyriding_Wiki I will be putting real-life election data, and, fictional what-if stories here. I will also have it set up so my most recent projections are easily visible. You will also find attached a forum, where I will from time to time run games or interesting thought experiments.

Lastly, my Quebec Projection.

For more details, visit the aforementioned Blunt-Objects.

Test

More testing

Test

Test


Test

Another test

Still working out the kinks.

The return of RxR

Hello folks. I've decided to return this old blog to it's former glory! Many of you already know that prior to the 2011 Federal election, I got my own website, www.ridingbyriding.ca and moved everything over there. Many of you also know that following the election I ran into financial difficulties and was unable to pay the bills on the site.

The 2011 Federal election was a mixed bag for me. Of anyone who attempted a riding-by-riding projection, I was closer to the actual results than anyone else. In effect, I "won". Despite that, my daily unique readership never peaked beyond 30 (Except for the few days right around E-Day of course) and that put me into a slump and depression.

I've since come to realize that I don't really care who reads my stuff, so long as my numbers are as correct as I can make them.

Therefore, this blog will be returning to regular activity!

~Teddy

Returning

RxR will be returning here.
<- Click here to see the full post Sorry, no extra data today!

bump

<- Click here to see the full postSorry, no extra data today!

REMINDER

<- Click here to see the full postSorry, no extra data today!

Reminder, we've moved to: http://www.ridingbyriding.ca/

forum

- Sorry, no extra data today!

again, data has been moved here from the forum

- Sorry, no extra data today!

POST DATE MAR 18

Historical

1999
PC - 31
Lib - 13
NDP - 5

1995
PC - 42
lib - 11
ndp - 7

1990
NDP - 35
Lib - 18
PC - 7

- Sorry, no extra data today!

POST DATE MAR 17

1 riding is mostly outside the new province but contains a small municipality within it (Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock)
3 ridings are split around half-half in terms of population (Dufferin-Caledon, York-Simcoe, Wellington-Halton Hills)
The Niagara and Hamilton regions have 7 ridings
Halton has 3, plus the Halton Hills
Peel has 8 plus Caldeon
York has 7 plus it's portion of York-Simcoe
Durham has 4, one shared with Toronto, and Brock
Toronto has 22 plus the one it shares with Durham.
This makes for 45 ridings completely within the new province plus the three "halfs" mentioned above, for a total of 46.5 ridings, rounded up to 47 (including Brock)

8 of the whole ridings have PC members. 8 have NDP members. 29 are Liberal. All of the half ridings are represented by the PC Party, making for an approximated legislature of:
30 Liberal
10 PC
7 NDP

The Remainder of Ontario would have:
42 Liberal
15 PC
3 NDP


Federally, the new province would have the following representation (using the same addition of half members)
25 Lib
16 CPC
6 NDP

- Sorry, no extra data today!

POST DATE MAR 17

http://maps.google.ca/maps/ms?hl=en&geocode=&ie=UTF8&oe=UTF8&msa=0&msid=101714683938336514556.000481fb3a726b98da6a1 I shall be posting this map and making a longer post about the idea of a "Province of Toronto"

- Sorry, no extra data today!

POST DATE MAR 17

http://www.toronto.ca/mayor_miller/spee ... speech.htm
11 billion dollars. That's the gap between what Toronto pays in taxes, and gets back in federal and provincial spending. At least it was in 2005.

Lets do some calculations.
The 2005 budget for Ontario had a 1.4 billion dollar deficit.
The 2005 budget was 82 billion dollars in revenue (and 83 in spending)
Canada's 2005 budget was 222 billion dollars in revenue, with a 13 billion dollar surplus (spending was at 209)
in 2006, Ontario had 38.9% of Canada's population. 222 X .389 = 86. and 209 X .389 = 81.
in 2005/2006 Ontario sent 23 billion dollars more to the federal government than they got back.
Logically, we can presume half of that is revenue and half is spending. Lets round down to 22 billion.
Therefore. Ontario sent 97 billion dollars to the feds, and got back 70 billion.
97 is 43.7% of 222, while 70 is 33.5% of 209.
97 + 82 = 179 while 70 + 83 = 153
Therefore, if Ontario were a country, in 2005, it would have had a surplus of 26 billion. This includes the 22 billion we sent to Ottawa, and our share of the 13 billion dollar federal surplus.
This year. Federal revenue is at 231 billion and spending at 281 billion.
231 X .437 is 101, while 281 X .335 = 94
Meaning that Ontario's share of the federal deficit is minus 7 billion dollars (IE we are in surplus)
Ontario's deficit this year is 25 billion.
I cannot find specific numbers for Ontario's revenues and exp. this year. however as seen in 2005 it is likely close to federal numbers. 85 in revenue and 110 in exp. is reasonable to expect.
Therefore, the total revenue and exp. of Ontario, if it were a country, would be 186 VS 204, or an 18 billion dollar deficit
Toronto, remember, has about 20% of Ontario's population
186 X 0.2 = 37 while 204 X 0.2 = 41
37 - 41 = -4
Toronto, remember, sends 11 billion dollars more to the government than it gets back.
-4 + 11 = 7
Therefore. Toronto's suprlus this year, if Toronto were a country, would be 7 billion dollars.
Now, it has been stated 1% sales taxes bring in $400 million a year in Toronto. The HST is being introduced at 13%.
0.400 X 13 = 5.200
7.000 - 5.200 = 1.800
Last year, Toronto's new and hated taxes brough in 46 million dollars. Lets round up to 50.
1.800 - 0.050 = 1.750
1.750 billion - 1,750 million
The TTC (Toronto Transit) budget was 1,400, total. That includes about 400 in city subsidy, leaving 1,000 unfunded
1,000 - 1,750 = 750
750 million = 750,000,000
Toronto has 2,500,000 citizens
750,000,000 / 2,500,000 = 300
300 dollars.

So, lets review.
If Toronto were it's own country, it would be in surplus this year (despite the recession, and the billions and billions in deficit we are in) and that surplus would be SO large, we could cancel the new hated taxes, end ALL sales taxes, and make the ENTIRE TTC free, as well as send a cheque for $300 to each person in Toronto.

I have sources for all the numbers I've presented if anyone needs them.

- Sorry, no extra data today!

POST DATE MAR 15

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/nort ... 567619.stm

I'll make a blog post about this a bit later on

42% - Irish
39% - British
18% - Northern Irish

55% - UK

forum

- Sorry, no extra data today!

I'm moving over data from the forum.


POST DATE MAR 14

34% - PC
30% - WAP
23% - LIB
10% - NDP


From Environics, as per http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Torie ... story.html

I will be turning this into a projection tonight.

www.ridingbyriding.com

-

Reminder, we have a new website www.ridingbyriding.com


Sorry, no extra data today!

Looking Back

-

One of my first posts on the blog. It contains a spelling error, but the projection was dead on - sadly.

http://nixtuff.blogspot.com/2008/01/racession.html

I note that I have not edited the post in any way shape or form since I posted it at the start of 2008.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Rob Ford to run for mayor! ...Maybe

<-

An article in today’s Star suggests Rob Ford may well run for Mayor after all. There is still plenty of time to get into the race if he wants to, in fact I’d say there are at least 6 more weeks to ‘enter’ the race without risking getting in ‘too late’, if not a full 10 weeks. Regardless, we must look as to how this will impact the race.

I still maintain that my list of plausible candidates from earlier stands, that Mammoliti is not one of them, and that there still is a gap in the middle of the right wing that is probably just waiting to get filled.

Lets first examine who Rob Ford is. For anyone from outside Toronto, I will explain this using three words. Reform / Canadian Alliance. Rob Ford is the most right-wing person elected to Toronto city council, perhaps ever. He is not just your standard Stephen Harper neocon, he is very ‘populist’ in nature, focusing his attention not on lower taxes but on wasteful spending, especially from office budgets of politicians.

So, how would Ford fare in the election? Well, he would lose. If there was even the slightest inkling that Ford could win, the rest of the city would rush to get behind another candidate – any other candidate – that Ford would be crushed. The question is how much support he could get. My feeling is he could get anywhere from 10% to 20%, depending on if another right candidate enters the race, possibly going as low as 5% if he makes gaffes. Where would these votes come from? Not the core that is certain. There are however enough people in the inner suburbs that could and would support Rob Ford. Remember that he does consistently win his own ward.

Why run? Ford has never proven he is in touch with political reality. He probably thinks there is an off chance he can win. There are, however, two ‘bigger’ reasons that I see. One, to embarrass Mammoliti, whom he will easily trounce in the popular vote, and Two, to perhaps build a party-like organization of right minded people in Toronto. If the latter, he may work with the Toronto Party to do this.

What kind of Mayor would he be? In general, very right-wing. I do not, however, think he would “destroy” the TTC. Rossi is more of a threat to that. Ford would lower funding, that is certain, but he does not seem to have the same ‘hate’ for the transit system that others do.

So, what are the numbers? As I see it:

Smitherman – 40%

Pantalone – 25%

Rossi – 20%

Ford – 10%

Others – 5%


Sorry, no extra data today!

Projection

-

129C 95L 50B 34N - 11MAR2010

visit ridingbyriding.com for more details


Sorry, no extra data today!

International politics.

<- More below the fold!

You will notice that from time to time I focus on different aspects of international politics. There are certain areas of the world in particular that I plan to or wish to focus on. Northern Ireland, clearly, is one. I do however want to note that I write from a Canadian prospective, for a Canadian prospective. I’ve had people from the various countries I write about tell me my explanations of political issues in their homeland is “simplistic”, and this is true. I am not writing political analysis about Northern Ireland for a Northern Irish audience. I am writing it for a Canadian audience. This means from time to time I will make comparisons that are rough at best. For example, saying that in the UK, their Tories are like our Tories, their Liberals are like our moderate Liberals, and their Labour party is like our NDP plus Trudeauites is very simplistic, but also allows someone who may not follow UK politics to get a very basic understanding of what is going on.

I wish to therefore give a short and basic run down of politics in various areas I wish to focus on below the fold.




First off, Northern Ireland. You can find some basic election date on Wikipedia. The CAIN database is also full of useful nuggets of information. I want to note here something about Wikipedia. I am not endorsing the political analysis on it – it is very easy to say “most people think this” and not be caught, true or not. I am however endorsing the numbers. These numbers don’t make it to the page unless they are sourced. I myself am one of the more active contributors to election result numbers to Wikipedia, and I suggest someone looking for raw data use Wikipedia, while someone who wants a more detailed account of why should perhaps look elsewhere.

There are a number of parties in Northern Ireland. On the Unionist side there is the UUP, the Ulster Unionist Party. They are very old, and for many years formed the government. They were, in fact, in government from 1921 to the end of the NI Parliament in the late 1960s and early 1970s. It was this government that people were protesting during the Bloody Sunday protest. In the 70’s however the UUP began to moderate it’s stance. This is when the DUP, or Democratic Unionist Party was formed, it struck a much more hard line for Unionism. In the past few years, however, the DUP has been a key part of Government, and it too has had to moderate it’s tone, leading to a new party, the TUV or Traditional Ulster Voice to spring up. The TUV has yet to be tested in either a UK or NI election.
On the Nationalist side there is the SDLP, or Social Democratic and Labour Party. This party was formed at the start of the troubles to represent nationalist and catholic interest. The largest nationalist party however is Sinn Fien. They are the political wing of the armed IRA members who fought the troubles. SF has overseen the disarming of the IRA and now participates in Government.

A little bit of history as well. Starting about a thousand years ago or so, England began invading Ireland. They would take hundreds of years to subdue the island, but eventually did. By then, most of the English were Protestant while the Irish remained Catholic. This turned the situation into a religious divide, with Protestants on one side and Catholics on the other. Following world war 1, an election was held in Ireland. The result was as follows

To split it; In the 26 counties that now make up the Republic of Ireland:
Sinn Fien – 69
Nationalist – 2
Unionist – 2





ERROR

Projection Update

-

129C 97L 48B 34N


Sorry, no extra data today!

Summarized Projection

-
CANADA
130C 95L 48B 35N

ATLATIC
15L 12C 5N

QUEBEC
48B 19L 7C 1N

ONTARIO
47L 45C 14N

PRAIRIE
23C 3N 2L

ALBERTA
26C 1L 1N

BRITISH COLUMBIA
16C 10L 10N

TERRITORIES
always always always 1C 1L 1N unless I say otherwise

The full projection will be posted within 15 minutes to www.ridingbyriding.com


www.ridingbyriding.com

So when is the next election?

-

Not soon, at least not likely. Word on the street is that neither the NDP or Liberals want an election. Looking at the most recent projections, it is no surprise why. The NDP is down slightly, or at best, will only match their 2008 election results. The Liberals are up, but only as far as 2006 (an election they lost) The Tories meanwhile are back at 2006 levels.

In short, there is no real reason for any of the parties to want an election. The Liberals certainly don't want to lose an election, even if they can gain 20 to 30 extra seats. The Tories certainly don't want to lose a seat, especially when you consider that much of the anti-Conservative feeling is, in reality, anti-Harper feeling. Harper knows that unless he can win an election with a majority, there is a very good chance he will be out. He will have had four chances (2004, 2006, 2008, 2010) and if he can't win a majority in that time, I don't see him remaining. Even Chretien, who lead 3 majorities, was only given 3 chances (1993, 1997, 2000) Ignatieff, meanwhile, could certainly remain Liberal leader if he can bring them back up to 100 seats, but his party does not want to suffer it's 3rd consecutive defeat (Something that's not happened since the 50's) The NDP meanwhile, at least under Layton, has decided that they want to make another serious run for Government. While this is not as ridiculous as it first sounds (especially considering the Liberals had their worst election ever last time, in terms of popular vote) polls show there is not a chance it is going to happen any time soon. Thanks to the prorogue issue, the Tories are no longer leading by a dozen points. Even though recent polls have shown a minor bounce back (even to as high as an 8 point lead) this not enough to guarantee Harper his Majority.

But wait, there's more! An article on the Toronto Star shows that at least 75 MP's (from all parties) who were first elected in 2004 will qualify for Pensions this June, this includes some top-notch Conservatives, and Liberals as well as Jack Layton himself. Some other big names include Ujjal Dosanjh, Bill Siksay, Jim Prentice, Rona Ambrose, Steven Fletcher, Mike Chong, Navdeep Bains, Ruby Dhalla, Peter Van Loan, Helena Guergis, David McGunity, Pierre Poilievre, Gordon O'Connor, Pablo Rodriguez, Rob Moore, and Michael Savage. Many of these people, if they are not big names on to themselves, are brothers or children of current or former premiers, etc. I don't think many of these people will desire a quick election. There is also the practical concern of money. The Tories are swimming in it, but the Liberals could always use more time to collect more donations. The simple fact that neither of the two parties are ranting "Election! Election! Election!" to the media, like they both were in turn before this mess, tells me that a spring election, at least one on purpose, is not likely. If this does hole true throughout the spring, however, it means that a fall election is nearly a certainty.

I for one hope for a fall election so that I have time to finish my new website!


Sorry, no extra data today!

We now have a forum

-

Well we already had a forum, which only really saw use during election time. Here is our new one:

http://s1.zetaboards.com/rXr/index/


Sorry, no extra data today!