No posting today

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Slow news weekend, no posting for today


Sorry, no extra data today!

What do you do in your spare time?

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What do you do in your spare time?
Me, I play a game called Diplomacy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diplomacy_(game)
You can play in person, or online. I do the latter

This is the website I recommend personally:
http://www.dipbounced.com/


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tories remain in Majority territory

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Sorry, no extra data today!

Provinces again

<- Details below the fold

An update to my earlier post on the provinces.

First, coming elections.

Yukon - unknown 2010 (no interest in fixed dates)
New Brunswick - September 27 2010 (Fixed election dates)
Prince Edward Island - October 3 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Manitoba - October 4 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Ontario - October 6 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Newfoundland - October 11 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Saskatchewan - November 7 2011 (Fixed election dates)
Alberta - unknown 2012 (has rejected the idea of fixed dates)
Quebec - unknown 2012 (no interest in fixed dates)
British Columbia - May 14 2013 (Fixed election dates)
Nova Scotia - unknown 2013 (possibly looking towards fixed dates)

Next, provinces, below the fold. There are a few leadership elections (AB WAP, MB NDP, ON GRN) within the next few weeks, as well as by-elections (NS, NL, possibly MB) within that time span.





Ontario
72 - Liberal - Dalton McGunity
25 - PC - Tim Hudak
10 - NDP - Andrea Horwath
0 - Green - Frank de Jong - New leader picked Nov 15 2009

Quebec
67 - Liberal - Jean Charest
51 - Parti Quebecois - Pauline Marois
6 - Action Democratique - Sylvie Roy (Interim) New Leader picked Feb 2010
1 - Quebec Solidarie - Amir Khadir
0 - Parti Vert - Guy Rainville

British Columbia
49 - Liberal - Gordon Campbell
35 - New Democrats - Carole James
1 - Independent - Vicki Huntington (Leans right)
0 - Green Party - Jane Sterk

Alberta
70 - PC - Ed Stelmach
9 - Liberal - David Swann
2 - New Democrats - Brian Mason
1 - Wildrose Alliance - Paul Hinman - New leader picked October 17 2009
1 - Independent - Guy Boutilier (Leans right)

Manitoba
34 - New Democrats - Gary Doer - New leader picked October 17 2009 (Steve Ashton or Greg Selinger) We expect Selinger to win.
19 - PC - Hugh McFadyen
2 - Liberal - John Gerrard
0 - Green - James Beddome
1 - Vacant - Concordia? - Can find no official information indicating the riding is indeed vacant. Only news reports.

Saskatchewan
38 - Saskatchewan Party - Brad Wall
20 - New Democrats - Dwain Lingenfelter
0 - Liberals - Ryan Bater
0 - Greens - Larissa Shasko

Nova Scotia
31 - New Democrats - Darryl Dexter
11 - Liberal - Stephen McNeil
8 - PC - Karen Casey (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Greens - Ryan Watson
2 - Vacant - Antogonish and Inverness (3-way toss ups) Oct 20

New Brunswick
33 - Liberal - Shawn Graham
22 - PC - David Alward
0 - New Democrats - Roger Duguay
0 - Greens - Mike Milligan (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010

Newfoundland and Labrador
42 - PC - Danny Williams
3 - Liberal - Yvonne Jones (Interim) New Leader picked 2009/2010
1 - New Democrats - Lorraine Micheal
2 - Vacant. Terra Nova (strong PC), date not yet set, and The Straits and White Bay North (Strong PC) October 27

Prince Edward Island
24 - Liberal - Robert Ghiz
3 - PC - Olive Craine (Interim) New leader picked 2010
0 - Green Party - Sharon Labchuck
0 - New Democrats - James Rodd

Yukon
9 - Yukon Party - Dennis Fentie
5 - Liberal Party - Arthur Mitchell
2 - New Democrats -Elizabeth Hanson
2 - Independent - John Edzerza (Leans NDP) - Brad Cathers (Leans Yukon Party)

Defection story grows. Just a bit.

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It's made it though one news cycle, at least on the blogosphere. So who will it be?

If it's anyone, it will be 1 or more of these 6

Gurbax Singh Malhi
Joe Volpe
Paul Szabo
Albina Guarnieri
Jim Karygiannis
John Cannis

If I was a betting man, I'd bet on Szabo, Guarnieri, and Karygiannis



Sorry, no extra data today!

Liberals to defect! Maybe not really.

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Supposedly, there are three Liberals who are ready and willing to defect to the Tories, and could do so at any second, even during the time it took you to read this sentence! while I personally doubt that, its only fair to look at just whom might be involved.

Ruby Dhallia is the name thrown around the most, but with her recent 'problems' I don't know if the Tories would want her.

Keith Martin was previously in Harper's party, and Scott Brison is a former Tory; some might expect them to go back but I don't see it.

So who else?

From a Geographic standpoint, Siobhán Coady might be considered. Her riding is almost certainly going to fall to the Tories next election, and she has tried repeatedly to take the seat, finally winning in 2008. If she were to join the Tories she'd be their only Newfoundland MP and have clear Cabinet potential. Weather she actually agrees with anything the Tories stand for, however, is another question.

Andrew Kania, and Sukh Dhaliwal both have potential to lose their seats in the upcoming election, that could pressure them to switch.

Joyce Murray is a former BC Liberal, and might have some friends over on the other side.

Gurbax Singh Malhi, has opposed SSM. Navdeep Bains is in a riding that could be won by the Tories. Gaining one or both would bolster the Tory standing within the Sikh community.

Joe Volpe has always been a bit of a maverick, and his riding is the only one in Toronto that the Tories are within striking distance of.

Paul Szabo, and Albina Guarnieri from Mississauga are known as more socially conservative liberal members.

The the final group are 4 MP's from Scarborough, Jim Karygiannis, John Cannis, John McKay, and Derek Lee. For the Latter to make the jump would be political suicide, as his riding has become the "new mount royal" for the Liberals.

Weather all, some, or any of the above actually jump, however, is unclear.


Sorry, no extra data today!

By-Elections

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The ElectoMatic matrix is giving me the following results, at this time, for the ridings where by-elections are to be held.

New Westminster-Coquitlam
CPC win by 4% over NDP

Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
CPC win by 9% over NDP

Montmagny-Rivere-du-Loup
BQ by 22% over CPC

Hochelaga
BQ by 24% over Lib


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tories catch up to the trendline

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As expected, the Tories have caught up to our trendline. As a result, the trend has cooled somewhat, but remains strong.

CPC - 161
Lib - 74
BQ - 47
NDP - 26

Atlantic
Lib - 15
CPC - 12
NDP - 5

Quebec
BQ - 47
Lib - 20
CPC - 7
NDP - 1

Ontario
CPC - 65
Lib - 30
NDP - 11

West
CPC - 77
Lib - 9
NDP - 9


Sorry, no extra data today!

By-Elections

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Just wanted to make a quick note that the by-elections we mentioned earlier will be happening November 9th


Sorry, no extra data today!

Europe and the Lisbon Treaty

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Ireland has passed the Lisbon Treaty, and has paved the way for it to pass the remaining EU states.

More can be read about this here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Lisbon


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Chart

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Below is a chart of poll results from the last month




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Tories balance at Majority

<- Province breakdowns below

Due to the fact that it looks like there will be no election, I've had to adjust the trendline of the projection to extend further out. In short, what this means, is the current upward trend of the Tories means more, as we expect that without an election (IE a game changer) that it will continue. Therefore, we have adjusted our projection for this, and present both the new projection, using the new trendline, and the old projection, using the former trendline below.

Without Trendline (Old projection)
CPC - 148
Lib - 85
BQ - 48
NDP - 27

With Trendline (New projection)
CPC - 154
Lib - 80
BQ - 48
NDP - 26

Vote breakdown below the fold


NL
Lib - 4
CPC - 2 (Avalon, and St.John's South)
NDP - 1

PE
Lib - 3
CPC - 1

NS
Lib - 5
CPC - 3
NDP - 3

NB
CPC - 6
Lib - 3
NDP - 1

QC
BQ - 48
Lib - 19
CPC - 7
NDP - 1

ON
CPC - 61 (Including 1 seat in the city of Toronto)
Lib - 36 (only 7 seats outside the GTA)
NDP - 9

MB
CPC - 10
NDP - 3
Lib - 1

SK
CPC - 13
Lib - 1

AB
CPC - 28

BC
CPC - 22
NDP - 7
Lib - 7

TR
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1

No Election

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Looks like there will be no election this November, if at all this year. I will begin tagging my projections as the 2010 election


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tories continue commanding lead

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Including results from the brand new Ekos poll

CPC - 142
Lib - 89
BQ - 48
NDP - 29


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Look Familiar?

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We are projecting the following:

CPC - 143
Lib - 88
BQ - 47
NDP - 30

143 is the number of seats the Tories won in 2008, and is the number of seats they currently hold. The party continues to trend up, and at this rate, will be in majority territory by the time of the supposed election, November 9th. Much of this strength comes from Ontario, where we have the Tories winning 58 seats at this time. The increasing NDP weakness in crucial areas (Ontario, BC, the Prairies) is also not helping. One cannot help but presume that this is due to the role reversal of the Liberals and NDP regarding just when the Tories need to go.


Sorry, no extra data today!

Tories at 138

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Latest Projection:

CPC - 138
Lib - 90
BQ - 47
NDP - 33

No commentary


Sorry, no extra data today!

By-elections

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There are a number of by-elections that will come up if a General Election is avoided this fall. The date of these by-elections has to be anywhere between November 2 and November 23, of course there is a chance that Harper could decide not to hold all 4 on the same date, meaning that they could happen earlier, or later.

The ridings up are...

Hochelaga
This riding was held by Réal Ménard from the Bloc for 16 years. He is resigning to run for Borough Mayor of Hochelaga. This would appear to be a significant step down for Ménard, who may be planning to remove himself from federal politics in order to make a move elsewhere, either hoping that his municipal party's candidate for Mayor (The interim PQ leader before Boisclair) loses so he can run next time. He might be taking this step back in order to free himself to run for the leadership of the Bloc Queebcois (a very puzzling move if this is his plan) or as a way to transfer to the Parti Quebecois (again, would not make much sense) Regardless of why, he is no longer the MP of this riding. This riding is one of the more left-wing on the island of Montreal. It is one of the 4 ridings that has been solid for the Bloc since 93. Ménard and the Bloc won the riding in 2008 with 49.7% of the vote. The Liberals were next with 20.7% and the NDP with 14.4%. 2006 saw the Bloc get 55.6% with the Liberals at 17.2%, and the Tories in third with 12.2%. 2004 and 2000 saw the Bloc get near or above 50%. 1997 was when the riding came closest to flipping, with the Bloc still taking near 50%, and over 7,000 more votes than the second placed Liberals. While I would not be surprised to see the NDP creep into second place on a weak bloc showing, I would be surprised if anyone except the Bloc Quebecois wins this riding.

Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup
Try saying that 5 times fast. this riding is as francophone as it's name. Paul Crête of the Bloc resigned in order to run provincially, he lost that battle. In 2008 he managed 46% of the vote compared to 31% for the Tories. What's surprising is that despite the Tories being down provincewide from 2006, they were up in this riding; in 2006 the bloc took 52% and the Tories took 25%. The 2004 election was a blow-out for the Bloc in this riding, easily tromping the second placed Liberal candidate with almost a 2-to-1 margin. Prior to this, the riding was split in two. In Bellechasse—Etchemins—Montmagny—L'Islet, the Liberals managed narrow victories over the Bloc in 2000 and 1997 (winning the latter by less than 50 votes) Whats more interesting about the 1997 result is that the PC Candidate was only 1,200 votes behind. In fact in 1993, the Bloc only win this riding by 1,100 votes over the PC Candidate. That small of a margin in 1993 clearly speaks to the character of that portion of the riding. In the other half of the riding, Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup—Temiscouata—Les Basques, the Bloc won without problem in 2000, and managed to beat the Liberals in 1997. Again, we see a PC Candidate here making a very strong third placed showing. That same candidate was defeated, easily in 1993, but held the riding in the 80s. Going back even further, we find some Social Credit friendly territory here. Long story short, this riding does indeed have a true blue Conservative voting base. The problem, however, is Harper, he just is not well liked in Quebec right now. While I do expect the Tories to put up one heck of a fight, I cannot see them winning here, unless something unexpected happens, like Mario Dumont running.

New Westminster—Coquitlam
This BC riding will be the one requiring a By-Election soonest. Dawn Black of the NDP quit to run provincially, and was elected as a BC NDP MLA. This is a swing riding in ways. In 2008, the NDP managed 41.8%, while the Tories took 38.8%. In 2006 the NDP managed 38.3% while the Tories had 32.5%. It was in 2004 that we saw the Tories with 32.9% and the NDP with 32.6%. It is, it seems, the drop in the Liberal vote that has allowed the Tories and the NDP to fight it out. Going back further, we get more results. I note, however, that especially in BC, these results should be treated with Caution. Many who were populist but moderate voted for the Reform-Alliance, and it was from BC where many Alliance moderates (such as current Liberal MP Keith Martin) came from. I will, however, note the results. In 2000, the Alliance won 44% of the vote, compared to the Liberals 31% and NDPs 15%. 1997 saw Reform win with 34% beating the NDP at 30%. Of note, the NDP Candidate in this election, Dawn Black. The Liberals took 29% here. The 1993 election was a close contest between Reform, the Liberals, and the NDP. 1988, however was a clear win for the NDP, again, with Dawn Black. This riding is clearly a toss up between the NDP and the Tories. Looking at current BC polls, and reading the tea leaves, I would give the Tories an edge here.

Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley
Bill Casey was the longtime MP for the area, who resigned to become a lobbyist. Casey had held the riding since 1988, with one interruption, the 1993 term. Casey, however, came within inches of winning the riding even in that election. Casey is an interesting story, first elected as a Progressive Conservative, Casey ended up in Harper's Conservative Party, before being thrown out of it for voting against the Budget. Casey won the 2008 election with a shocking 69% of the vote, beating the official NDP candidate at 12%, the Tory at 9% and the Liberal at 8%. The 2006 election is perhaps a better refernece point, it saw the Tories win with 52%, beating the Liberals at 24% and the NDP at 21%. In 2004, the Tories took 50%, to the Liberals 26%, and the NDP's 19%. 2000 saw Casey, as the PC Candidate, win 48%, compared to the Liberals 27%, the Alliances 13% and the NDPs 12%. In 1997 we saw the PCs at 44%, the Liberals at 26%, the NDP at 14%, and Reform at 14%. The "Long Story Short" is that this is a strong traditionally Tory riding. The only question, then, is how angry its voters are with the Conservative Party. The NDP is on the rise here, with the Liberals managing between 24% and 27% in the recent past. This is good news for the Tories, in that the anti-CPC vote will be split. The problem then comes from the possibility that there are enough angry voters to actually elect one of those candidates, and if that happens it is truly unknown weather that would be the Liberal or the New Democrat. With the recent provincial election, however, I'd say the NDP has the best shot at winning if the Tories lose. I also say, however, that the Tories will not lose.




Sorry, no extra data today!

And over in Portugal

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Portugal had it's own national election. The results are as follows.

96 - Socialist Party
78 - Social Democrats (Moderate, Centrist, Conservative)
21 - Peoples Party (Conservative)
16 - BE (Communist, euro-communist)
15 - CDU (Green and Communist, marxist)



Sorry, no extra data today!

Germany Final

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194 - CDU
93 - FDP
45 - CSU
332 - GOVERNMENT

146 - SDP
76 - LNK
68 - GRN
290 - OPPOSITION

Click here for constituency map. (Does not show PR seats)


Sorry, no extra data today!

Germany

<- More elections

Now that counting is near done, we can calculate more reliable results.

In the state of Schleswig-Holstein

30 - CDU
13 - FDP
43 - POSSIBLE GOVERNMENT

22 - SPD
11 - GRN
5 - LNK
4 - SSW (Danish Minority Party)
42 - OPPOSITION

In Brandenburg, the Premier has a choice of coalitions
31 - SPD
19 - CDU
50 - EXISTING COALITION

26 - LNK
7 - FDP
5 - GRN
38 - OPPOSITION

or

31 - SPD
26 - LNK
57 - GOVERNMENT

19 - CDU
7 - FDP
5 - GRN
31 - OPPOSITION

Federally, the results are as follows

239 - CDU/CSU
93 - FDP
332 - GOVERNMENT

147 - SDP
76 - LNK
68 - GRN
291 - OPPOSITION

more elections below the fold.


And past elections as follows:

Saxony Anhalt (2006)
40 - CDU
24 - SDP
64 - GOV

24 - LNK
7 - FDP
31 - OPP


Saxony (2009)
58 - CDU
14 - FDP
72 - GOV

29 - LNK
14 - SDP
9 - GRN
8 - NPD (This is a neo-nazi party)
60 - OPP


Rhineland-Palatine (2006)
53 - SDP

38 - CDU
10 - FDP
48 - OPP


North Rhine-Westphalia (2005)
89 - CDU
12 - FDP
101 - GOV

74 - SDP
12 - GRN
86 - OPP


Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2006)
23 - SDP
22 - CDU
45 - GOV

13 - LNK
7 - FDP
6 - NPD
26 - OPP


Lower Saxony (2008)
68 - CDU
13 - FDP
81 - GOV

48 - SPD
12 - GRN
11 - LNK
71 - OPP


Hesse (2009)
46 - CDU
20 - FDP
66 - GOV

29 - SDP
17 - GRN
6 - LNK
42 - OPP


Hamburg (2008)
56 - CDU
12 - GRN
68 - GOV (first CDU-GRN alliance in a state, ever)

45 - SDP
8- LNK
53 - OPP


Bremen (2007)
33 - SDP
14 - GRN
47 - GOV

23 - CDU
7 - LNK
5 - FDP
1 - DVU (also a neo-nazi party)
36 - OPP


Berlin (2006)
53 - SDP
23 - LNK
76 - GOV

37 - CDU
23 - GRN
13 - FDP
73 - OPP


Bavaria (2008)
92 - CSU
16 - FDP
108 - GOV

39 - SDP
21 - FW ("Free Voters")
19 - GRN
79 - OPP


Baden-Wurttemberg (2006)
69 - CDU
15 - FDP
84 - GOV

38 - SDP
17 - GRN
55 - OPP


Saarland (2009)
(note, no government has been worked out just yet)
19 - CDU
13 - SDP
11 - LNK
5 - FDP
3 - GRN


Thuringia (2009)
(note, no government has been worked out just yet)
30 - CDU
27 - LNK
18 - SDP
7 - FDP
6 - GRN

More on Germany

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I've done the math from some of the exit polls. Here are the results:

213 CDU/CSU
94 FDP
307 GOVERNMENT

144 SDP
80 LNK
67 GRN
291 OPPOSITION

The CDU is Germany's Conservative Party. The CSU is their allied party, the CSU operates only in the German state of Bavaria, while the CDU operates everywhere else.

The FDP is the German Liberal Party. These are 'European Liberals' and we might think of them as Libertarians over in this part of the world.

The SDP is Germany's main left-wing party, they are Social Democrats by name and practice. The party is generally moderate.

GRN is Germany's Greens. This is where the Green movement started, and Germany is home to one of the world's strongest Green Parties. The Greens in Germany are very much on the left, they are anti-war, and not offended by people suggesting they are socialist.

LNK, or Die Linke (The Link) is perhaps the most interesting party. They are the direct successors to the Communist Party of East Germany. The party is most successful in the former East German states, but has been able to draw in some popular former West German leaders, such as Oskar Lafontaine, a former leader of the SDP in West Germany, who is now co-leader of Die Linke.



Sorry, no extra data today!

Angela Merkel re-elected, exit polls

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(very) early reports are that German Chancellor Merkel has finally got the Majority she wanted. Current results show Merkel's Conservative Alliance (CDU+CSU) being able to form a Coalition with the right-of-centre FDP (Liberals). This coalition would have a majority of about 4 seats, giving them 8 seats more than the combined opposition. (Social Democrats, Greens, and Socialists)

More coverage tonight.

Watch the results once they begin to trickle in: http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/ergebnisse/bundesergebnisse/

Sorry, no extra data today!

Me

<- Click to read more about me

There are a few others who run projection blogs. Some of them hide who they are and which parties they support. Others are out in the open about everything, and rely on their methods to be true regardless of their personal views. I am of the latter.

So what would I like out of the election? I suppose my dream scenario would be a Liberal government propped up by the Green Party in an official coalition. Of course, that's not going to happen, at least not this time. My #2 preference would be for a Liberal Majority. My #3 preference, however, is actually for a Conservative Majority. I really think we need to end this decide-bill-by-bill kind of minority governance that could see the government fall at any moment. To that end, I would prefer a coalition to a minority, hence I suppose my #4 option would be for a Liberal-NDP Coalition government.

So, how have I voted?

In the 2008 federal election, I voted for the Green Party.
In the 2007 provincial election, I voted for the Ontario PC Party.
In the 2006 municipal election, I voted for myself - a "Pro-Transit, Right of Centre" candidate
In the 2006 federal election, I voted for the Conservative Party.
In the 2004 federal election, I voted for the Liberal Party.
In the 2003 provincial election, I voted for myself - in the PEI NDP.

As you can see, I've never voted for the same party twice (though I did vote for the right on multiple occasions)

In the coming election, I plan to vote Green, partly because the Liberals are going to win my riding no matter what.

So, where do I stand on the issues?
I want Senate Reform. On Justice and Security issues I'm firmly on the right. On social issues, I'm firmly on the left. I don't have a problem with government, or government spending, but also think taxes should be fair for people of all incomes. I often say that I want "Low taxes on married gay couples" and challenge someone to find a party that wants that too. Due to my unique mix of issues, I find it difficult to find a single party that I can get behind.

So, are my projections biased in some way? I'd like to hope not. My emotions, however, are. For much of the 2008 election I was torn between the Tories and the Greens. Seeing the Tories edge towards a majority, and then fall back from it, had an effect on me, and is one of the reasons my projections dropped off during that period. When you build your own system, and trust it, and it tells you things you don't want to hear, you can get discouraged. I also found it difficult to guesstimate for certain ridings. How powerful, for example, was Elizabeth May, and how many votes would she get? Again, I think my emotions got the better of me, as I clearly over-estimated this. I'd like to think I've learned from my mistakes, however. I win by being right. The closer I get to being 100% accurate, the better a name and reputation I build for niXtuff, and the more attention people will pay to me in the future; which itself leads to more pressure to be accurate, so on and so forth. My goal is to build a program that can, with few inputs, accurately project the entire election.

More about me below the fold.


December 19 1984 - Born at Scarborough General Hospital, Toronto, Ontario.
1985 - Mother and Father, who never married, split. I move with my mother to live with her parents.
1992 - My mother meets my step dad
1993 - My mom and I move in with my step dad, he lives in Mississauga, Ontario.
1995 - Our family, including my mother's parents, move to Summerside PEI
2002 - Started courses at the University of Prince Edward Island
2003 - Grandparents bought me a car
2004 - Crashed my car
2005 - Left University. I realized I was not ready at the time. Moved to Toronto and took up a job as a Security Guard
2006 - Attempted a private projection of the election. Projected 10 Tories from Quebec when no one else dare projected more than 6. I was spot on.
2007 - Started niXtuff, originally as a public transit blog with occasional political news. That reversed itself, and I finally dropped all transit news altogether.

Tories ever increasings

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No commentary


Sorry, no extra data today!