Polls

We've combined polls from the Strategic Counsel http://www.thestrategiccounsel.com/our_news/polls/2008-12-04%20globeandmail%20(web).pdf - Ipsos Reid http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4201 - Ekos http://www.ekoselection.com/wp-content/uploads/poll-results-dec-5-final.pdf - and compass http://www.compas.ca/data/081205-CommonsTurmoil-EPCB.pdf to find the poll-average. This multipoll averaging is a proven system to eliminate the static of poll-swing used by niXtuff to produce more accurate projection results. If an election were held today with these numbers, this is what we expect would be the results.

C 204
B 48
L 35
N 16

Note that this is a 'rough' calculation and is not as accurate as our regular election calculations. We are just trying to give you an idea of how these poll numbers would translate. For the record, here is our provincial breakdown:

BC
C 32
L 2
N 2

AB
C 28

SK/MB
C 23
N 3
L 1

AT
C 24
L 4
N 4

QC
B 48
L 15
C 10
N 1

And lastly...

ON
C 87
L 13
N 6

Note that this is not a joke, a type-o, or a mistake. Current polling numbers show Harper with a Chretien style lead in Ontario. In fact for this prediction we over-estimated liberal strength on the presumption that polls are currently over-stating the current tory strength. So what ridings would remain Liberal or NDP?

Assuming we use the actual numbers (and not our adjusted estimates) the NDP wins these 5:
Hamilton Cen
Timmins
Windsor W
Toronto Danforth
Trinity Spadina

and the Liberals, these 12
Parkdale
Beaches East York
Nickel Belt
Davenport
Toronto Centre
York South Weston
Vaughan
Etobicoke North
Markham
Scarborough-Agincourt
York West
Scarborough RR

The remaining ridings, including ridings such as St.Paul, Ottawa Centre, and Sudbury are all projected to go Conservative.

Quebec Election - Final

PLQ 75 (MAJORITY)
PQ 46
ADQ 4


ADQ

Chauveau
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
Lotbinière
Rivière-du-Loup




PQ

Abitibi-Ouest
Beauharnois
Berthier
Bertrand
Blainville
Borduas
Bourget
Chambly
Champlain
Charlevoix
Deux-Montagnes
Drummond
Dubuc
Duplessis
Gouin
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Johnson
Joliette
Labelle
Lac-Saint-Jean
L'Assomption
Marguerite-D'Youville
Marie-Victorin
Masson
Matapédia
Mercier
Mirabel
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Prévost
René-Lévesque
Richelieu
Rimouski
Roberval
Rosemont
Rousseau
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
Saint-Maurice
Taillon
Taschereau
Terrebonne
Ungava
Vachon
Verchères



PLQ

Abitibi-Est
Acadie
Anjou
Argenteuil
Arthabaska
Beauce-Nord
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
Bonaventure
Bourassa-Sauvé
Brome-Missisquoi
Chapleau
Charlesbourg
Châteauguay
Chicoutimi
Chomedey
Crémazie
D'Arcy-McGee
Fabre
Frontenac
Gaspé
Gatineau
Groulx
Hull
Huntingdon
Iberville
Jacques-Cartier
Jean-Lesage
Jeanne-Mance—Viger
Jean-Talon
Jonquière
Kamouraska-Témiscouata
La Peltrie
La Pinière
La Prairie
LaFontaine
Laporte
Laurier-Dorion
Laval-des-Rapides
Laviolette
Lévis
Louis-Hébert
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Marquette
Maskinongé
Matane
Mégantic-Compton
Mille-Îles
Montmagny-L'Islet
Montmorency
Mont-Royal
Nelligan
Nicolet-Yamaska
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Orford
Outremont
Papineau
Pontiac
Portneuf
Richmond
Robert-Baldwin
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Saint-François
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
Saint-Laurent
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Soulanges
Trois-Rivières
Vanier
Vaudreuil
Verdun
Viau
Vimont
Westmount—Saint-Louis

Quebec Election

Final list coming shortly.

ADQ solid
Chauveau
Lotbinière

PLQ solid
Beauce-Nord
Montmorency
Abitibi-Est
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Nicolet-Yamaska

PQ solid
Mercier
Marguerite-D'Youville
Saint-Jean
Chambly

PLQ 75 (MAJORITY)
PQ 46
ADQ 4

Quebec Election

PLQ vs PQ (10)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Marguerite-D'Youville
Nicolet-Yamaska
Saint-Jean


ADQ vs PLQ (3)
Beauce-Nord
Chauveau
Montmorency



ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lotbinière * (Due to an earlier recording error, this was listed as Levis, which is actually solidly PLQ)


PQ vs QS (1)
Mercier


Solid PLQ +2
Matane
Vanier

Solid PQ +2

Roberval
Saint-Hyacinthe



PLQ 66-80 (MAJORITY)
PQ 42-54
ADQ 2-6
QS 0-1

PLQ clinches majority

Our most recent update has the PLQ clinching a majority of seats.

Solid PLQ +8 (64)
Arthabaska
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
La Peltrie
Crémazie
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Groulx
Louis-Hébert


Solid PQ +3 (40)
Gouin
Saint-Maurice
Ungava


BATTLEGROUND SEATS (19)


PLQ vs PQ (13)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Gaspé
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Marguerite-D'Youville
Matane
Nicolet-Yamaska
Roberval
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean


ADQ vs PLQ (4)
Beauce-Nord
Chauveau
Montmorency
Vanier


ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lotbinière


PQ vs QS (1)
Mercier



PLQ 64-82 (MAJORITY)
PQ 40-55
ADQ 2-7
QS 0-1

Quebec Election

Here is our seat by seat projection for Quebec.

ADQ solid (2)
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière (ADQ)
Rivière-du-Loup (ADQ)


PQ solid (37)
Abitibi-Ouest
Beauharnois
Berthier
Bertrand
Blainville
Borduas
Bourget
Champlain
Charlevoix
Deux-Montagnes
Drummond
Dubuc
Duplessis
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve
Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Johnson
Joliette
Labelle
Lac-Saint-Jean
L'Assomption
Marie-Victorin
Masson
Matapédia
Mirabel
Pointe-aux-Trembles
Prévost
René-Lévesque
Richelieu
Rimouski
Rosemont
Rousseau
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques
Taillon
Taschereau
Terrebonne
Vachon
Verchères


PLQ solid (56)
Acadie
Anjou
Argenteuil
Bonaventure
Bourassa-Sauvé
Brome-Missisquoi
Chapleau
Charlesbourg
Châteauguay
Chomedey
D'Arcy-McGee
Fabre
Frontenac
Gatineau
Hull
Huntingdon
Jacques-Cartier
Jean-Lesage
Jeanne-Mance—Viger
Jean-Talon
Kamouraska-Témiscouata
La Pinière
LaFontaine
Laporte
Laurier-Dorion
Laval-des-Rapides
Laviolette
Lévis
Marguerite-Bourgeoys
Marquette
Maskinongé
Mégantic-Compton
Mille-Îles
Montmagny-L'Islet
Mont-Royal
Nelligan
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce
Orford
Outremont
Papineau
Pontiac
Portneuf
Richmond
Robert-Baldwin
Saint-François
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
Saint-Laurent
Shefford
Sherbrooke
Soulanges
Trois-Rivières
Vaudreuil
Verdun
Viau
Vimont
Westmount—Saint-Louis


BATTLEGROUND SEATS (31)


PLQ vs PQ (19)
Abitibi-Est
Chambly
Chicoutimi
Crémazie
Gaspé
Groulx
Iberville
Jonquière
La Prairie
Louis-Hébert
Marguerite-D'Youville
Matane
Nicolet-Yamaska
Roberval
Rouyn-Noranda—Témiscamingue
Saint-Hyacinthe
Saint-Jean
Saint-Maurice
Ungava


ADQ vs PLQ (9)
Arthabaska
Beauce-Nord
Beauce-Sud
Bellechasse
Chauveau
La Peltrie
Montmorency
Vanier


ADQ vs PLQ vs PQ (1)
Lévis


PQ vs QS (2)
Gouin
Mercier


The list of solid seats will not be published again. In the coming days the number of "battleground" seats will be reduced, and they will be assigned to particular parties.

PLQ 56-85
PQ 37-59
ADQ 2-12
QS 0-2

What's personally surprising is that when I ran the numbers, that QS seems to still be within striking range of some PQ seats. This may be due to imperfections on our mathematical modeling system however. Regardless, we've put them up there. Also note it's possible for the PQ to win the election. They'd need to be within 4.5% of the PLQ in order to do so (39% for the PLQ to 34.5% PQ means the PQ wins) but currently polls are showing the gap is larger than this.

Quebec Election

Max and Mins for each party according to recent polling

PLQ = 61-82
PQ = 41-58
ADQ = 2-11

Quebec Election

Today's trendline adjustments

PLQ 70
PQ 50
ADQ 5

Parliament out, to return in Jan.

Regardless, there will likely be an election sooner rather than later. None of what's going on right now in Ottawa is anywhere near "stable"

Another federal election?

There is word that the Liberals and NDP are planning to form a coalition government to bring down the Tories. Successful or not, it likely means another election is in the offing sooner rather than later.

Quebec Election

PLQ 68
PQ 53
ADQ 4

The ADQ will likely win the following:
Riviere Du Loup
Chutes De La Chaudiere
Beauce Nord
Lotbiniere

And may also win the following:
Chauveau
La Peltrie
Vanier

We are also looking at the Lanaudiere and Laurentides areas to see if the ADQ has any strong candidates who might make a surprise showing on election night.

(UPDATE)

We've found three seats in those areas mentioned above (Which ring Montreal) where we would not be surprised if the ADQ managed to pull off an unexpected hold. They are Blainville, Mirabel, and Berthier. These three seats are held by somewhat strong MNAs, and were won by somewhat comfortable margins last time. While we do not see that they have the numbers to win, we do expect them to do better than others expect.


* Note. Our projections rely on our past weighting formula, but also have added in a new element of "trendlines" that attempts to show the trends before they happen, our projections are therefore for election day, and not for tomorrow, unlike other 'preidcto' sites.

More poll tracking

More historic numbers
http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=664

Nova Scotia included
http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=592

I've used a simple elimination formula to find out Tory/SoCred numbers for BC and Saskatchewan.

In December 1993, BC Social Credit must have had near 25% support.
For most of the early 90's, Saskatchewans PC's must have had support between 20%-25%

Here are some historic federal numbers.
http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=405

Poll tracking.

While the folks over at Polling Report try to keep with the polls, this is a very difficult job to do, and often they get burnt out and cannot always update on time. Therefore, I've decided to start my own poll tracking! Check back for updates. Our first is provincial polls from Environics

Click Here

The ADQ

Where do they have a shot at winning seats, and who is in those seats?


Likely to win some of all of these:

Rivere-Du-Loup (Mario Dumont)*
Chutes-De-La-Chaudiere (Marc Picard)*
Lotbiniere (Sylvie Roy)*
Beauce-Nord (Janvier Grondin)*
Chauveau (Gerard Deltell)

Unlikely to hold on to some or all of these:

Beauce-Sud (Claude Morin)
Vanier (Sylvain Legare)
La Peltrie (Éric Caire)**
Montmorency (Hubert Benoit)
Chicoutimi (Jean-Philippe Marin)
Matane (Denis Paquette)

* = one of the 4 members elected in 2003
** = one of the media's so-called "skilled" ADQ members.

Quebec Election

New poll numbers from Nanos show the ADQ heading towards an unmitigated disaster. We've updated our trendlines.

PLQ - 68
PQ - 54
ADQ - 3

It's not outside of possibility that the ADQ could get shut out this election.

Public Transit in Toronto

Historically, this is a Public Transit blog, and we do intend to return to that shortly. Here is a blog entry in that vein.

The TTC has announced that it plans to increase off peak service to now provide service on almost every route, at 30 minute intervals or better, whenever the subway is open. While it is not complete, it does make for a new stronger network that really opens up the entire city to transit service. I work nights. I'm a security guard - IE one of those people who works in the lobby if your office tower who is there when you are not. I head into the downtown core in the late evening and head out during the morning peak when everyone else is rushing the other direction. For me and people like me these service upgrades are a godsend.

The reality is that not everyone works 9-5 at King and Bay. There are hundreds of thousands of us that work off-peak hours throughout the city. Even those who do not will often take transit to go shopping, or to see the doctor, or to visit friends, or to go out with friends for a night on the town. These are all off-peak ventures. If you can easily get to work via transit but cannot use it to go shopping, you are more likely to, when you get money, buy a car. If you have a car, its oh-so-easy to take it to work on a day when you may be running behind, or when it is very cold, or whatever the reason may be. Building a successful transit network is not a quick-fix thing, it is a long term plan for success.

Buses that are empty tomorrow night will, within a few years, fill themselves up, as new arrivals to our city find out they can get around without a car, and therefore do not buy one, and as younger Torontoians who currently take the TTC out of necessity find that they can take it out of convenience as well. This new network literally "opens up" the city. No longer does an off-peak worker have to actively think about where to live, and where he or she can work; this new network opens up all those locations to all sorts of various hours of travel.

The city is almost done. There are a few more steps they could take to make this "perfect". One is to extend this service to every route in the network, 30 minutes or better while the subway is open. This may mean that certain routes need to be 'adjusted'. Take for example the 101 Downsview Park bus. The only passenger I've ever seen on that bus is myself, who took it because I was curious why it's so darn empty. The bus currently runs on a 20 minute headway as its journey only takes 10 minutes each direction. Extending the route and turning it into a loop that reaches Keele and Sheppard, would make it a useful bus for people to use to transfer to the Keele bus. It would, at most, add 10 minutes to the trip making this bus have a 30 minute headway. Another example is the 117 Alness, and the 107 Keele North; not today but in the future. When the YUS subway is extended into the York Region, its almost certain that YRT will take over operations of the 107. Being the biggest money-loser for the TTC, they are wise to cancel the service. While most of the 107 route is close enough to other service for passengers to walk the difference, the service on Chesswood is not. Fortunately, Chesswood is surprisingly close to Alness St and the two routes could be easily combined into one route operating from the new Sheppard West station.

Two is to expand service from 30 minutes at all times into something better. I'm personally a fan of at least 20 minutes to 10pm every day of the week, and at least 15 in the mid-day and peak periods, every day of the week. With this end-goal in mind the TTC could start implementing this service in the busier routes and expand outward. Current dashed-line routes on the map that are "limited service" could be re-designated as routes that run all day ever day but do not follow the 15-20-30 formula.

Three is to make a serious expansion to the Blue Night network. First, the TTC should add more buses to the 300 Bloor and 320 Yonge night routes. These routes should never go below 7:30 service, that means two buses every 15 minutes.

Secondly, service on these routes should be increases when needed, for example a closing-hour for the clubs, and just prior to the opening of the subway, to ensure that true off-peak loading standards (where everyone gets a seat) is maintained. These should be the 'star' routes of the Blue Night Network and should be marketed as such. Next is to increase service on other well-used blue night routes. Perhaps a 20 minute headway on Queen and Eglinton West, if not an outright 15 minute headway on both.

Lastly, the TTC needs to 'fill in the gaps' on the network. This would include a Keele bus, and a Sheppard West bus. While the latter can run the same routing as the daytime, ideally the Keele bus would head into York University, which is a large generator of party-goers at nighttime. Nothing against York, this is true for any University with residence buildings. I also think that bringing night service back to King and Spadina is wise. Money could be saved by keeping Queen at at 30 minute headway but properly scheduling service on King so that arrival time on cross streets like Bathurst or Sherbroune is staggered so that where one streetcar arrives at 3:15am, the other arrives at 3:30am in the same direction. While Queen would make an important connection with the Yonge line, King would make one with Bloor. Additional service on Spadina would also help relieve some of the club crowd. It may even be wise to run a blue night bus into the entertainment district - and I mean into the district itself, not up university and call that the district, I'm talking down Adelaide and Richmond - and then express to various destinations in the city. Beyond this the city should examine bringing service to other routes. Kipling, Kennedy, St.Clair-Kingston-Markham, both Warden and Vic Park separately, and extending Lawrence West to the Airport, and staggering the schedule so that it meshes with Eglinton West's arrivals there.

Once these steps are taken the TTC will find themselves in possession of a seamless network connecting all the corners of the city to one another. While this may be costly, it will build off-peak ridership and help to fill those dreaded "empty buses". Off-peak ridership is important as these services are far less crowded and more comfortable to ride. Peak-heavy systems often leave buses sitting around all day aging by themselves. A successful network needs to run at all times in all places. I can think of no better way to lay the groundwork for the coming Transit City improvements.

For those wishing to read the new service changes for themselves, they are available on the TTC website at http://www3.ttc.ca/Service_Advisories/Service_Changes.jsp

Quebec Election Projection

Another 'rough' projection, given the general decline in the ADQ without any sign that things will pick up.

PLQ - 65
PQ - 54
ADQ - 6

New website for the Quebec Election

The website at http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/ seems to have its act together. We recommend adding it to your bookmarks if you plan on following the election.

Quebec Election pt2

Our current "Seat" projections (which will have accuracy problems due to the small number of polls expected, and uniqueness of the Quebec situation) currently show the following results:

PLQ - 63
PQ - 54
ADQ - 8

For the ADQ we have Dumont winning his seat, and 6 others joining him from the Quebec City/Levis area. Of the ADQ "frontbench" team (IE the so-called stars of the party) we currently only see Caire being re-elected by the narrowest of margins, while Taillon, Morissette, and Proulx go down to defeat, and

Quebec election

We are planning to do some minor tracking of the Quebec election. We've run the current numbers, and they tell us the ADQ will be reduced to less than a dozen seats, with the Liberals holding a narrow majority. More to come.

Riding tracker.

Note that Democratic Space updated thier last projections since we took note, so some of this may be off. Prelim numbers are as follows:


Avalon
We were right, as was EP. DS was off.

Central Nova - We were wrong
South Shore - We and EP were wrong

Tobique - We were wrong

Charlesbourg - We were wrong
Brossard - We were wrong (narrowly)
Hull - We were wrong
Roberval - DS was wrong, we and EP were right.

Beaches - We were wrong
Mississauga South - We and EP were wrong, DS was right
Welland - We were right
Brant - We were wrong
London West - We were right
Kenora - We were wrong, but so were they (It went CPC)

Saint Boniface - We were right

Palliser - we were wrong

Vancouver Kingsway - we were wrong, so was DS
Esquaimalt - We were wrong
Saanich - We were right, so was DS
Surrey North - We were wrong
Newton - We were wrong, so was DS

Nunavut - We were right, so was DS


So that's 17 to 6. There were a number of ridings (Mirimichi for example) that we were all wrong about. Regardless, this has unfortuantly been a failure and we have failed to acheive our goal of correctly predicting the election against the other major prediction websites, and all of us failed to predict the size of the tory minority.

How very embarrassing

It appears I've added my own ridings wrong. This is a huge embarrassment to myself, but in the interest of honesty, I will report the proper adding. I apologize for this amateurish mistake.

126 - Conservative Party of Stephen Harper
88 - Liberal Party of Stephane Dion
51 - Bloc Quebecois of Gilles Duceppe
40 - New Democratic Party of Jack Layton
1 - Green Party of Elizabeth May
2 - Independents (Casey and Arthur)

Numbers in comparison

Please note the following - Blogger will be unavailable Tuesday (10/14) at 8:00PM PDT for about 10 minutes for maintenance.
*table removed due to errors*

Different numbers.

I will compare my numbers to those of the other major "predicto" sites out there. www.electionprediction.org, and www.democraticspace.com

Our final numbers:
124 - Conservative Party of Stephen Harper
88 - Liberal Party of Stephane Dion
51 - Bloc Quebecois of Gilles Duceppe
42 - New Democratic Party of Jack Layton
1 - Green Party of Elizabeth May
2 - Independents (Casey and Arthur)

EP's final numbers:
125 - Conservative Party of Stephen Harper
94 - Liberal Party of Stephane Dion
51 - Bloc Quebecois of Gilles Duceppe
36 - New Democratic Party of Jack Layton
2 - Independents (Casey and Arthur)

DS's final numbers:
128 - Conservative Party of Stephen Harper
92 - Liberal Party of Stephane Dion
52 - Bloc Quebecois of Gilles Duceppe
34 - New Democratic Party of Jack Layton
2 - Independents (Casey and Arthur)

One thing to note is we are the only ones calling for a Green seat. I'll consider this a personal victory for our projections even if we are farther off in other respects.

So where do we disagree? I will outline every riding where we disagree with one or both of these other predictions.


DS = Democratic Space
EP = Electionprediction
NX = niXtuff

Newfoundland
DS has Avalon going CPC. EP and NX have it going Liberal.

Nova Scotia
DS and EP have Central Nova going CPC, NX has it going Green
DS has South Shore going CPC, NX and EP have it going NDP

New Brunswick
DS and EP have Tobique going CPC, NX has it going Lib

Quebec
DS and EP have Charlesbourg going CPC, NX has it going BQ
DS has Roberval going BQ, NX and EP have it going CPC
DS and EP have Hull going Lib, NX has it going NDP
DS and EP have Brossard going BQ, NX has it going Lib

Ontario
DS and EP have Beaches going Lib, NX has it going NDP
DS has Mississauga South going Lib, NX and EP have it going CPC
EP has Halton going CPC, DS and NX have it going Lib
DS and EP have Welland going Lib, NX has it going NDP
DS and EP have Brant going CPC, NX has it going Lib
DS and EP have London West going Lib, NX has it going CPC
DS and EP have Kenora going Lib, NX has it going NDP

Manitoba
DS and EP have Saint Boniface going Lib, NX has it going CPC

Saskatchewan
DS and EP have Palliser going CPC, NX has it going NDP

British Columbia
EP has Vancouver Kingsway going NDP, DS and NX have it going Lib
DS and EP have Esquaimalt going Lib, NX has it going CPC
EP has Saanich going Lib, DS and NX have it going CPC
DS and EP have Surrey North going CPC, NX has it going NDP
EP has Newton going Lib, DS and NX have it going CPC

Territories
EP has Nunavut going Lib, DS and NX have it going CPC

I'll keep a tally on these ridings on election night (as well as limited live blogging when the polls in BC close) and post who was right.