70 #PQ | 30 #PLQ | 22 #CAQ | 2 #QS | 1 #ON

Final Projection

More information to come.

Final Poll (Forum Research)

PQ 36%
PLQ 29%
CAQ 25%
QS 6%
ON 2%
PVQ 2%

In 30 minutes...

At 11pm, the final Forum poll comes out, and I release my final projection. I will be setting up the projection to trickle out throughout the night, and be working on it for a few hours. As soon as the poll is out I will post my topline results. All results will be finished being displayed by 6am.

The Competition

This blog has 3 major competitors in this Quebec election projection season.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/
Three Hundred Eight is the most well known. Their track record is a bit shaky at times, being further off the mark federally in 2011 than any other major projection website. It is run by Eric Grenier. I've mentioned it before, but at one point, I wanted to merge this website with his, as, I thought his website name was stellar and would attract visitors, but after some thought, we both agreed it would be a bad idea. Then I came up with riding by riding!

http://electionsqc.com/
A new website that looks made specifically for this Quebec election. Professionally done and with many visual options, there is little past history to go on. This website however uses the correct methodology pioneered by myself and this website, the "Ratio" method. In his own words:

La variation d’un parti est répartie également à 50%, et en proportion du nombre de votes reçus dans la circonscription à 50%. Par exemple, si QS passe de 3,8% à l’élection à 8,7% dans les sondages, cela fait un écart de 4,9%. Tous les candidats QS monteront donc de 2,45%. Ensuite, comme cela représente une augmentation de 129%, tous les candidats augmentent de 64,5% par rapport à la dernière élection. Dans une circonscription où ils avaient obtenu 1% des voix, ils obtiendront 3,99% des voix (1+2,45+0,645). Dans une circonscription où ils avaient obtenu 10%, ils obtiendront 18,90% (10+2,45+6,45).

I am very very happy to see other projectionists using the ratio method!

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/

This website was a minor player in the 2011 campaign, not garnering much attention until the end, when his projections were pretty damn close to being accurate. With an excellent mastery of English and French, the webmaster Bryan Breguet could be a forced to be dealt with. The main problem appears to be a faulty methodology, based on "uniform swing" - a method proven not to work in Canadian elections. 

I have no problem mentioning the fact that I have competition, or, pointing out who they are. Part of my objective is to be the most accurate election projectionist out there (so that, maybe one day, a political party will hire me to get their candidates elected, or, a media outlet will hire me to come in and talk about things whenever there is an election) Unless I can compare and contrast myself with my competition, I will never be able to do that.

I urge my readers to, if they follow any of these websites, encourage the webmasters to compare themselves as well. 

Prior to the final poll...

Prior to the final poll, our projection stands as follows.

PQ - 64
CAQ - 29
PLQ - 28
QS - 3
ON - 1

Forum poll coming

A final poll from Forum Research will be coming out later tonight.

This is why you never do your "Final Projection" before midnight!

Final projection sneak peak

QS winning 3 seats, and ON winning a seat. PQ winning a majority. What else, you'll have to stay tuned!

BREAKING - New Poll

Follow https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky for more details.

Looks like a PQ Majority, our last projection will reflect this.

Bump

More projections tonight

Unless there is a final poll, my final projections will go up overnight (after midnight, before sunrise)

Political Simulation (AKA a game)

I just wanted to note/remind my readers that I partake in a political simulation, or in other words, play a game, that is quite fun.

www.polcan.info 

This is a game that allows you to be an MP, and allows you to take it from there to wherever you want to go.

This game, Politics Canada, or, PolCan, as we call it, started in 2003, and we've been playing, off and on, ever since. In my time there I've been Prime Minister, Leader of the Opposition, 3rd party leader, Cabinet minister, backbencher, and even a game Administrator. Currently I'm the newly elected Leader of the Opposition.

One of the great things about this game is that you play a character. My character, W. John Jameson, is a solid fiscal conservative. I am not. This gives me the opportunity to find arguments to sell policies that I myself disagree with, but which I feel would win over parts of the electorate. It forces you to think outside the box!

Currently, there are only two parties open for players (due to lack of players). The NDP, currently in a majority government, and the Conservatives, currently the official opposition. The Liberals will open up when we get more players, and the Greens, when we get even more players. To make the game run more smoothly, the Bloc Quebecois has disbanded.

If you've ever wanted to be an MP but can't wait to be elected in real-life, try our political simulation!

Penultimate Projection - Seat Ranges

PQ
Expected to take 59 seats
Could take as many as 75 seats
Could take as few as 42 seats


CAQ
Expected to take 33 seats
Could take as many as 44 seats
Could take as few as 21 seats


PLQ
Expected to take 31 seats
Could take as many as 43 seats
Could take as few as 23 seats


QS
Expected to take 2 seats
Could take as many as 3 seats
Could take as few as 2 seats


ON
Expected to take 0 seats
Could take as many as 1 seat
Could take as few as 0 seats


PVQ
Expected to take 0 seats
Could take as many as 0 seats
Could take as few as 0 seats


No Independents or others are expected to come close to winning, or, even break the 5% barrier. (sorry Luc Harvey)

Riding By Riding (Quebec - Penultimate)

North of the St. Lawrence (excluding the Quebec Area)

The PQ is expected to win 16 seats here, but could win as many as 21 or as few as 14.
The PLQ is expected to win 7, but could win as few as 4.
The CAQ is expected to win 4, but could win as many as 6, or as few as 2.


South of the St. Lawrence (excluding the Quebec Area)

Unless a late-campaign poll comes in to save the day, Charest is gone. He will lose his riding.
The PQ is expected to win 17 seats, but could win as many as 18 or as few as 10
The CAQ is expected to win 8 seats, but could win as many as 12 or as few as 6.
The PLQ is not expected to win any seats, but could win up to 5.
Aussant of the Option Nationale could win his seat, but this is not expected.


Quebec Area

The CAQ is expected to win 12 seats, but could win as many as 14, or as few as 11.
The PLQ is expected to win 3 seats, but could win as many as 5, or as few as 1.
The PQ is expected to win 3 seats, but could win as many as 4, or as few as 2.
Marois will have no trouble getting elected in her own seat.


Montreal

The PLQ is expected to win 17 seats, but could win as many as 19, or as few as 15.
The PQ is expected to win 9, but could win as many as 10, or as few as 7.
QS is expected to win 2 seats, but could win as many as 3.
The CAQ is not expected to win any seats, but could win 1.
Khadir and David will both be elected.
The leader of the PVQ is expected to finish 4th in his riding.


The Corona

The PQ is expected to win 14 seats here, but could win as many as 22, or as few as 9.
The CAQ is expected to win 9, but could win as many as 11, or as few as 2.
The PLQ is expected to win 4 seats but could win as many as 7 or as few as 3.
Legault is expected to be elected in his riding.

Projection - Penultimate without further polls

If there are no further polls there will be my Penultimate (IE, second last) projection.

Riding by Riding results, and Analysis to come in another post in an hour or two.

In short, a PQ Minority, but a "weak" one, as PQ+QS =  No majority.

So, who was liberalwho?

Nobody knows.
http://www.liberalwho.ca/
The website still has not been updated.

I'm a card-carrying Liberal, which means I get a vote this leadership election, either directly, or indirectly, and I will remember that this is the person who wasted an hour of my time.

If it's a ploy by another party, I will remember that too come election time.

I don't like people who waste my time because they either don't know how to set up a clock or they think it's funny and/or are making a point.

Still undecided?

This may help
http://www.montrealgazette.com/life/What+Quebec+parties+offering/7181729/story.html

Thinking Update

After seeing all 4 scenarios and the math needed, I wanted to let everyone following my "thinking" posts know that I am now far more certain as to the possibilities of the election.

In other news
Tomorrow at 9am we find out who that "LiberalWho" is
Within the next 36 hours we'll see if there are any final polls to tell us where things are going
I will write a short review about the election projections and predictions in Kitchener-Waterloo and in Vaughan, the Ontario By-Elections

Prévision des Election - PQ Majority

What happens: The Undecided voters are, in part, those undecided between the PQ, QS, and ON. They swing to the PQ. CAQ-PLQ undecideds stay home. 

Why I think this will happen: The PQ is, odds on, going to win the election. Yet, we've seen the rise of the QS and ON. The polls are still close with both the PLQ and CAQ within 6 points of the first placed PQ. There may be a rush, a minor one, among voters who dislike federalism to support the PQ to ensure there is no minority. 

Why I think this wont happen: Just as the CAQ appears "stuck" at a support ceiling, so does the PQ. With the PQ having ample opportunity to pull ahead of the other parties, they've yet failed to do so. I think that it is clear, from this, that voters just do not trust Marois. They see her as the female version of Parizeau, when what they really want is another Bouchard.

Result: 

PQ - 70 - 36.13% - Majority
PLQ - 28 - 27.61%
CAQ - 25 - 28.44%
QS - 2 - 5.73%
ON - 0 - 1.02%
PVQ - 0 - 0.79%
Aut - 0 - 0.28%

(Aut stands for Autres, or, "Others" in French) 

Map: 

Ridings:

Prévision des Election - CAQ Victory

What happens: CAQ picks up the undecided voters as votes decided they do not want either the PQ or the PLQ.

Why I think this will happen: CAQ has had momentum this entire election. Every week or few days they would take another point away from the PLQ, while the PQ has been stuck at 33% in the polls. The PQ has not run a stellar campaign, and the PLQ has run an even worse campaign. The CAQ has been the talk of the campaign, both positive and negative, but with such a focus on the CAQ, voters will have the party at the front of their minds when it comes time to vote.

Why I think this wont happen: Despite all the momentum, the CAQ came to a screeching halt once they hit 28% in the polls, and have not been able to move an inch since. This is worrying for any party with momentum as it is a signal that you either have lost it or are losing it. People want to trust the CAQ, but they are just not certain they can do so.

Result: 

CAQ - 50 - 34.18% - Minority
PQ - 48 - 30.73%
PLQ - 24 - 24.13%
QS - 3 - 7.26%
ON - 0 - 2.19%
PVQ - 0 - 0.88%
Aut - 0 - 0.27%

(Aut stands for Autres, or, "Others" in French) 

Map: 

Ridings:

Prévision des Election - PLQ Victory

What happens: Voters worried about the PQ winning and not comfortable with Legault and the CAQ, swing back to Charest and the PLQ.

Why I think this will happen: CAQ voters are very uncertain, and clearly, have been peeled away from those who wanted to vote PLQ earlier in the campaign. While Legault and the CAQ have run a good campaign, they have not been able to ally the fears of PLQ voters that the CAQ is just a different flavour of PQ.

Why I think this wont happen: People don't want to vote for Charest and the PLQ. The PLQ offers little in terms of positive rationale to support them and most of their election campaign has focused on the PQ and CAQ. The PLQ is seen as old, tired, and corrupt, and the chance of voters swinging back to the government in the face of "scary" opposition parties is not the same as in Alberta due to the fact that the PQ has been government multiple times, and the CAQ (formerly the ADQ) has held the official opposition in the past.

Result: 

PLQ - 51 - 32.64% Minority
PQ - 50 - 32.05%
CAQ - 22 - 25.05%
QS - 2 - 6.68%
ON - 0 - 2.21%
PVQ - 0 - 1.11%
Aut - 0 - 0.26%

(Aut stands for Autres, or, "Others" in French) 

Map: 

Ridings: 

Prévision des Election - No Change (PQ Minority)

What happens: The polls are correct. Undecided voters do not break any differently than the polls show, or, stay home.

Why I think this will happen: PQ voters are more solid than PLQ and CAQ voters. In addition, the CAQ, which has had the momentum recently, has stalled and it's voters are uncertain. The CAQ and PLQ are both having difficulty moving from where they are stuck - around 27.5% in the polls each. One needs to overtake the other, but, neither appears able to do so.

Why I think this wont happen: Voters are uncomfortable with the PQ. The PLQ's second choice is the CAQ, and the CAQ's second choice is the PQ. Those voting for the QS and ON could vote for the PQ but have chosen not to, and the QS and ON are both doing better than expected. Marois' PQ is much more focused on Identity politics than past PQ parties, and this makes a for a much harder "edge" to the campaign and the party, one that should be enough to scare off voters.

Result: 
PQ - 61 - 32.85% - Minority
CAQ - 31 - 38.54%
PLQ - 31 - 27.85%
QS - 2 - 7.18%
ON - 0 - 2.39%
PVQ - 0 - 0.98%
Aut - 0 - 0.21%

(Aut stands for Autres, or, "Others" in French)

Map: 

Ridings:

Maps coming soon of the 4 possibilities in Quebec

For those wondering the 4 possibilities are:

Neutral - Things do not change, the PQ wins a large minority
CAQ - A swing to the CAQ
PLQ - A swing to the PLQ
PQ - Failure for one of the above results in a swing to the PQ

New poll

I don't have a link, but there is a new Leger poll out, showing the PQ at 33, the CAQ at 28, and the PLQ at 27

I will try to figure out what this means.

What I want to happen

Whether intentional or unintentional, our biases influence our work. I'd therefore like to explain where I stand in relation to the parties in Quebec.

I've never been a fan of the PQ. I've always felt they are a little bit racist. They think of the Quebecois as an ethnicity, "nous", while I, do not. I think of the Quebecois as no different than Acadians, a type of French who live in Canada. To me, Acadian and Quebecois are "Ethnically" French, as in France French, and the same applies to all French-Canadians. The PQ seems to think differently with relations to Quebecois. They seem to think of the Quebecois much as the Kurds do of themselves. Trying to argue that the Kurds should have more rights an an independent Kurdistan is something that many would support; but the Kurds are internationally recognized as an independent ethnic group, the Quebecois are not. For this reason I despise the current PQ, Marois, and the PQ campaign of identity politics. I consider their plan to restrict the rights of those who do not speak French as akin to ethnic cleansing. Perhaps not the same violence-based ethnic cleansing that has been seen in the Balkans, but much closer to the expulsion of the Acadians by the British in the 1700s. I honestly think that the PQ would be very very happy if every last Anglophone left Quebec, and that is a viewpoint that I find disgusting.

The QS is an interesting case for me. While I support an alternative to the PQ, I do not oppose sovereignty  as an idea. In fact, I favour more provincial powers, and, support the right of Quebec to declare independence on 50%+1 of the vote in a referendum. The QS however is more than just another sovereigntist party, they are very radically left wing. I may be on the left of the spectrum on many issues, but I'm just not as left wing as the QS. For this reason, while I am quite happy to see them take seats away from the PQ in Montreal, I would be a little uncomfortable to see them become a large party.

The ON appeals to me. I've never seen anyone even bother to attempt to make the case for sovereignty until this video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fsIE63fP-4&feature=plcp
As mentioned above, I think that this argument is a strong one. Despite that, given the history of the PQ, this 25 second shaky video is still the single strongest argument ever made for Anglophones to vote OUI. I honestly think if the ON were to get into government and rule for 5 years, that Anglophones would actually be willing to vote OUI. The fear of PQ racism is what I think drives many Anglophones to go out in droves and vote against Separation. With the ON trying to prove that you can be a OUI voter and not a racist, they appeal to me.

The PLQ is tired and old, and Charest seems unwilling to think outside the box to change things. Don't get me wrong, I have great respect for Charest. In fact, the "Charest Liberal" is where I often sit politically. In the centre-right of economics but still Liberal. Charest has also been one of the luckiest politicians in the history of Canada. He avoided winning the 1993 PC leadership, and thus, avoided blame for the 1993 PC defeat. He brought the PC Party in 1997 back to life, and just before people started to seriously question a united right, was called away to Quebec. He lost the 1998 Quebec election, one that gave the PQ it's most unpopular term of office in over a decade, and when he finally won in 2003, it was with an ADQ that consisted of more than just one man, an alternative to the PQ. After a minority in 2007 that harmed the PQ more than the PLQ, Charest pulled a majority out of his hat in 2008. The magic has finally worn off. Corruption stains the government and Charest seems set to lose his seat and his job. The PLQ, frankly, does not deserve to be re-elected.

The CAQ is a merger of disaffected PQ and PLQ members with the old ADQ. I remember watching the 2007 election on my TV and getting to my feet, jumping in the air, clapping, and laughing, as the ADQ overtook the PLQ in terms of seats. It was not a reaction I expected from myself, but in hindsight, I was very happy to see someone, anyone, break the two party system that had existed since Levesque. Looking deep into the policies, I support the CAQ much more than I support the ADQ. If I was living in Quebec and someone gave me a ballot, telling me my riding was tied and my ballot was the deciding ballot, without question I'd vote CAQ.


So, how to counter all this bias? The first step, I think, is to be aware of it. I'm quite aware that I favour the CAQ over the PQ and it is part of what pains my thinking. Am I seeing a movement to the CAQ over the PQ because I want to, or, because the statistics back it up? That is a topic I will tackle in my next post.