CPC - 120
Lib - 111
BQ - 44
NDP - 33
Think the Tories will sweep Calgary?
Not so fast!
Trivia time. What riding in the province did the Liberals do best in? Well thats Edmonton Centre. Which riding did they do second best in? If you said Calgary West your right.
Whats that you say, the Liberals doing well in Calgary? Its true. The Alberta Liberals won 5 seats in the city, and 4 everywhere else. The new Alberta Liberal leader is from Calgary. Part of his riding is in Calgary West. In fact, part of 4 of those Liberal Calgary ridings. In short, the idea that the Liberals could win here is not as crazy as one might think at first glance.
While I still have the Tories on top, it is not as big of a margin as you'd think. There is still a chance that the Liberals could steal this riding away, and no, I'm not joking.
Monday, September 7, 2009
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Fun with numbers
I took the July 23 Ekos poll and had some fun with it. Inside, it shows the "second choice" of voters, broken down my their "first choice" parties. This allows me to find out just who is torn between which parties. I point out that due to the small sample size of the July 23rd poll, results would be problematic. Due to the small sample size of the broken-down table, they certainly are. My plan is to update this chart as time goes on to make it more accurate. For now, it can only be described as "Fun with numbers"
Regardless, here is what I found out...
BASE SUPPORT (Canada wide)
CPC - 13.2%
Lib - 5.7%
Grn - 2.8%
NDP - 2.6%
BQ - 1.0%
MAXIMUM SUPPORT
Lib - 54.5%
CPC - 45.7%
NDP - 33.6%
Grn - 24.7%
BQ - 9.0%
Normally I would break down the Bloc numbers, but my guess is due to small sample size, its not worth it. 9% their max, is lower than the 10.3% they took in their first election. Hence I'm skeptical about these numbers.
SPLITS
Lib-CPC - 19.5% (These voters swing between the two parties)
Lib-NDP - 16.9%
Lib-Grn - 9.3% (FTR, this is where I am personally)
CPC-NDP - 6.2%
CPC-Grn - 5.4%
NDP-Grn - 5.4%
BQ-Lib - 3.1%
NDP-BQ - 2.5%
BQ-Grn - 1.4%
BQ-CPC - 1.0%
This breaks the myth that 'all voters' are torn between the Liberals and Tories. Lets find out how many 'swing' voters actually are!
42.6%. Thats the number of voters who will vote either Liberal or Conservative who had to decide between the two.
Lets have some more fun and throw some of these numbers into the ElectoMatic.
What if the Greens maxed out?
Lib - 106
Grn - 70
CPC - 70
BQ - 38
NDP - 24
What if the Tories bottomed out? How many seats would they take?
17.
2 each in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and 13 in Alberta (only 2 in Calgary, the remainder are all rural.
What if the NDP maxed out, could they take government? Where would their seats come from?
Yes, they would form a minority government with seats as follows.
NL - 2
PE - 0
NS - 10
NB - 3
QC - 12
ON - 33
MB - 8
SK - 11
AB - 3
BC - 28
TR - 3
Whats interesting is that many of the NDP's gains in Ontario would be in Western Ontario, and not in Toronto or the GTA. The NDP's strongest region in Quebec would not be Montreal, but rather Quebec City. This is likely due to the fact that the vote is already fractured here, and it therefore takes fewer votes to win a riding.
Regardless, this is all just a bunch of fun, that I hope has been as interesting to you as it has been to me. I hope to be able to continue to refine this with time.
Regardless, here is what I found out...
BASE SUPPORT (Canada wide)
CPC - 13.2%
Lib - 5.7%
Grn - 2.8%
NDP - 2.6%
BQ - 1.0%
MAXIMUM SUPPORT
Lib - 54.5%
CPC - 45.7%
NDP - 33.6%
Grn - 24.7%
BQ - 9.0%
Normally I would break down the Bloc numbers, but my guess is due to small sample size, its not worth it. 9% their max, is lower than the 10.3% they took in their first election. Hence I'm skeptical about these numbers.
SPLITS
Lib-CPC - 19.5% (These voters swing between the two parties)
Lib-NDP - 16.9%
Lib-Grn - 9.3% (FTR, this is where I am personally)
CPC-NDP - 6.2%
CPC-Grn - 5.4%
NDP-Grn - 5.4%
BQ-Lib - 3.1%
NDP-BQ - 2.5%
BQ-Grn - 1.4%
BQ-CPC - 1.0%
This breaks the myth that 'all voters' are torn between the Liberals and Tories. Lets find out how many 'swing' voters actually are!
42.6%. Thats the number of voters who will vote either Liberal or Conservative who had to decide between the two.
Lets have some more fun and throw some of these numbers into the ElectoMatic.
What if the Greens maxed out?
Lib - 106
Grn - 70
CPC - 70
BQ - 38
NDP - 24
What if the Tories bottomed out? How many seats would they take?
17.
2 each in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and 13 in Alberta (only 2 in Calgary, the remainder are all rural.
What if the NDP maxed out, could they take government? Where would their seats come from?
Yes, they would form a minority government with seats as follows.
NL - 2
PE - 0
NS - 10
NB - 3
QC - 12
ON - 33
MB - 8
SK - 11
AB - 3
BC - 28
TR - 3
Whats interesting is that many of the NDP's gains in Ontario would be in Western Ontario, and not in Toronto or the GTA. The NDP's strongest region in Quebec would not be Montreal, but rather Quebec City. This is likely due to the fact that the vote is already fractured here, and it therefore takes fewer votes to win a riding.
Regardless, this is all just a bunch of fun, that I hope has been as interesting to you as it has been to me. I hope to be able to continue to refine this with time.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
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Election around the corner.
So it looks like it's on. November 9th is still the day IIRC. What can you expect from niXtuff during the election?
We are hoping for daily polls. If we get that, we will update once a day. If not, we will update once a poll. Our update time will be between 11pm and 5am, thereby allowing all of the day's polls to have been registered.
We will be publishing a riding by riding guide, in the form of maps, showing the who should win each riding, along with a certainty - IE how sure we are that they will actually win.
We will continue our friendly rivalry with the math based Trendlines, the people based Election Prediction Project, new comer, Three Hundred Eight, and the inspiration for our own projections, Democratic Space
We wish them all luck.
We are hoping for daily polls. If we get that, we will update once a day. If not, we will update once a poll. Our update time will be between 11pm and 5am, thereby allowing all of the day's polls to have been registered.
We will be publishing a riding by riding guide, in the form of maps, showing the who should win each riding, along with a certainty - IE how sure we are that they will actually win.
We will continue our friendly rivalry with the math based Trendlines, the people based Election Prediction Project, new comer, Three Hundred Eight, and the inspiration for our own projections, Democratic Space
We wish them all luck.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Tories moving on up, slowly
CPC - 122 (33.69%)
Lib - 111 (31.14%)
BQ - 46 (9.25%)
NDP - 29 (16.24%)
Breakdown as follows
Newfoundland
Lib - 6
NDP - 1
Prince Edward Island
Lib - 4
Nova Scotia
NDP - 5
Lib - 5
CPC - 1
New Brunswick
Lib - 5
CPC - 4
NDP - 1
ATLANTIC SUBTOTAL
Lib - 20
NDP - 7
CPC - 5
British Columbia
CPC - 16
Lib - 11
NDP - 9
Alberta
CPC - 27
NDP - 1
Saskatchewan
CPC - 13
Lib - 1
Manitoba
CPC - 7
NDP - 4
Lib - 3
WEST SUBTOTAL
CPC - 64
Lib - 16
NDP - 15
Quebec
BQ - 46
Lib - 22
CPC - 7
Ontario
Lib - 53
CPC - 46
NDP - 7
Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1
There is also news that Gary Doer has been appointed the ambassador to the US (once he is officially retired from his Manitoba NDP Premiership) In our judgement this is a strategic move on the part of Harper. First, and most visibly, he appears to be 'reaching across the aisle', but more importantly, he is eliminating a possible future Federal NDP leader from contention. As we've seen with Bob Rae and Ujjal Dosanjh, provincial NDP leaders can go on to become Grits as well. Doer is very popular in Manitoba. A bit more about doer.
Gary Doer became Manitoba NDP leader in 1988, on the eve of / during an election in the province. Internal polling shows the NDP as low as 6% province-wide. Upon becoming leader, polls showed then NDP at 19%, and 23% on Doer's election. Doer was only able to gain a fraction of a point above this on Election Day, finishing with 12 seats, to the Liberals 20 and the Tories 25. Whats remarkable about this was the NDP was in government throughout the election. Doer specifically chose NOT to be sworn in as Premier. Doer would remain third party leader until 1990 when he became Leader of the Opposition.
Finally, on October 5th 1999, more than a decade before he was first offered the job, Gary Doer became Premier of Manitoba. He has held on to the job and his majority government ever since. Even the most recent polls show a Majority could easily be won should be decide to run again. What's the secret to his success? Pragmatism. Quite often the provincial NDP in Saskatchewan will claim that they invented the pragmatic centre position in the 90s. The reality is that Gary Doer wrote the play book. The Federal NDP tried to use a similar 'moderate' strategy, but fell flat. Doer made it work, and it is still working.
Thus we get to the present. Gary Doer is a strong politician. Would he become Federal NDP leader there is a good chance that the NDP could flourish, especially in the west. Due to the "brand" names of parties, the NDP could beat the Liberals in Alberta and walk away with a handful of seats. Should Doer switch to the Liberals and become Leader, he could all but kill the NDP on the federal level. All of this, however is dependent on two things. First, Doer's ability to win a leadership race, something which is hard to organize for when your living in another country, and second, the will. My read is the will is not there. Harper see's Doer as someone who could beat him in a fair fight and wants to get him out of the way. Doer, at least from where I'm sitting, is tired of bring Leader, and wants to move on.
Where all of this ends up remains to be seen. My prediction is that Gary Doer will never lead any federal party.
Lib - 111 (31.14%)
BQ - 46 (9.25%)
NDP - 29 (16.24%)
Breakdown as follows
Newfoundland
Lib - 6
NDP - 1
Prince Edward Island
Lib - 4
Nova Scotia
NDP - 5
Lib - 5
CPC - 1
New Brunswick
Lib - 5
CPC - 4
NDP - 1
ATLANTIC SUBTOTAL
Lib - 20
NDP - 7
CPC - 5
British Columbia
CPC - 16
Lib - 11
NDP - 9
Alberta
CPC - 27
NDP - 1
Saskatchewan
CPC - 13
Lib - 1
Manitoba
CPC - 7
NDP - 4
Lib - 3
WEST SUBTOTAL
CPC - 64
Lib - 16
NDP - 15
Quebec
BQ - 46
Lib - 22
CPC - 7
Ontario
Lib - 53
CPC - 46
NDP - 7
Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1
There is also news that Gary Doer has been appointed the ambassador to the US (once he is officially retired from his Manitoba NDP Premiership) In our judgement this is a strategic move on the part of Harper. First, and most visibly, he appears to be 'reaching across the aisle', but more importantly, he is eliminating a possible future Federal NDP leader from contention. As we've seen with Bob Rae and Ujjal Dosanjh, provincial NDP leaders can go on to become Grits as well. Doer is very popular in Manitoba. A bit more about doer.
Gary Doer became Manitoba NDP leader in 1988, on the eve of / during an election in the province. Internal polling shows the NDP as low as 6% province-wide. Upon becoming leader, polls showed then NDP at 19%, and 23% on Doer's election. Doer was only able to gain a fraction of a point above this on Election Day, finishing with 12 seats, to the Liberals 20 and the Tories 25. Whats remarkable about this was the NDP was in government throughout the election. Doer specifically chose NOT to be sworn in as Premier. Doer would remain third party leader until 1990 when he became Leader of the Opposition.
Finally, on October 5th 1999, more than a decade before he was first offered the job, Gary Doer became Premier of Manitoba. He has held on to the job and his majority government ever since. Even the most recent polls show a Majority could easily be won should be decide to run again. What's the secret to his success? Pragmatism. Quite often the provincial NDP in Saskatchewan will claim that they invented the pragmatic centre position in the 90s. The reality is that Gary Doer wrote the play book. The Federal NDP tried to use a similar 'moderate' strategy, but fell flat. Doer made it work, and it is still working.
Thus we get to the present. Gary Doer is a strong politician. Would he become Federal NDP leader there is a good chance that the NDP could flourish, especially in the west. Due to the "brand" names of parties, the NDP could beat the Liberals in Alberta and walk away with a handful of seats. Should Doer switch to the Liberals and become Leader, he could all but kill the NDP on the federal level. All of this, however is dependent on two things. First, Doer's ability to win a leadership race, something which is hard to organize for when your living in another country, and second, the will. My read is the will is not there. Harper see's Doer as someone who could beat him in a fair fight and wants to get him out of the way. Doer, at least from where I'm sitting, is tired of bring Leader, and wants to move on.
Where all of this ends up remains to be seen. My prediction is that Gary Doer will never lead any federal party.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Projection
With the new EKOS poll included.
CPC - 120
Lib - 112
BQ - 46
NDP - 30
The Liberals summer gains (opening up a lead in Ontario, and forcing the Tories down in Quebec) are starting to disappear. The only place the Liberals have really held on to their gains is in BC, where the Tories might be in some serious trouble.
CPC - 120
Lib - 112
BQ - 46
NDP - 30
The Liberals summer gains (opening up a lead in Ontario, and forcing the Tories down in Quebec) are starting to disappear. The only place the Liberals have really held on to their gains is in BC, where the Tories might be in some serious trouble.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Monday, August 24, 2009
Ramping back up
Here at niXtuff we are starting to ramp back up in time for the fall season.
I will be maintaining a Monday and Thursday update schedule where possible (IE when I have polls that make it worthwhile to do so)
Three new polls are out. One from Ekos, one from Decima, and one from Ipsos Reid (IR), who has gone back to their bourgeoisie attitude of information elitism and has prohibited the masses from gaining access to the details of their polls. Even if we had the money here at miXtuff to buy a subscription (and we dont, we are a free site in all respects) we could not use the numbers we find in our projections since the content is protected (IR has shut down popular canadian election websites before through the threat of lawsuit due to them using their polls) With this Soviet-Style block on polling data, I will not be able to add IR data to the regional breakdowns except where they so graciously decided to make that information public. I will, however, use whatever national numbers I can find to 'reverse engineer' the current projection to a state that matches IR polling, and then apply that.
I will update when full details from Decima come out (which hopefully will be within 24 hours)
I will be maintaining a Monday and Thursday update schedule where possible (IE when I have polls that make it worthwhile to do so)
Three new polls are out. One from Ekos, one from Decima, and one from Ipsos Reid (IR), who has gone back to their bourgeoisie attitude of information elitism and has prohibited the masses from gaining access to the details of their polls. Even if we had the money here at miXtuff to buy a subscription (and we dont, we are a free site in all respects) we could not use the numbers we find in our projections since the content is protected (IR has shut down popular canadian election websites before through the threat of lawsuit due to them using their polls) With this Soviet-Style block on polling data, I will not be able to add IR data to the regional breakdowns except where they so graciously decided to make that information public. I will, however, use whatever national numbers I can find to 'reverse engineer' the current projection to a state that matches IR polling, and then apply that.
I will update when full details from Decima come out (which hopefully will be within 24 hours)
Friday, August 21, 2009
Upcoming elections
Federal - November 9 2009
New Brunswick - September 27 2010
Yukon - unknown 2010
Manitoba - unknown 2011
Prince Edward Island - October 3 2011
Ontario - October 6 2011
Newfoundland - October 11 2011
Saskatchewan - November 7 2011
Alberta - unknown 2012
Quebec - unknown 2012
British Columbia - May of 2013
Nova Scotia - unknown 2013
New Brunswick - September 27 2010
Yukon - unknown 2010
Manitoba - unknown 2011
Prince Edward Island - October 3 2011
Ontario - October 6 2011
Newfoundland - October 11 2011
Saskatchewan - November 7 2011
Alberta - unknown 2012
Quebec - unknown 2012
British Columbia - May of 2013
Nova Scotia - unknown 2013
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Update
The Matrix has been updated, very strongly, with only the newest of polls. The result, however is that nothing much changes - polls remain stable. Next update may be in 2 weeks or so, again, I'm on an official vacation (even from work!)
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Yes I'm still around
I'll be taking a break of a few weeks for half of August. If I get a mass of new polls I'll post an update, but in general things are stable. The Tories and Liberals are swinging back and forth at around 105-125 seats, while the NDP and Bloc seem to be stuck where they are.
Monday, July 27, 2009
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Updates
As you may have noticed, I did not update last thursday. Polls have slowed, and due to that, I plan to update every second thursday when there are very few polls.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Tories widen lead
A new Angus Reid poll has been added to the Matrix, resulting in a larger Tory lead.
CPC - 120
Lib - 111
BQ - 47
NDP - 30
Ontario
Lib - 50
CPC - 46
NDP - 10
Quebec
BQ - 47
Lib - 21
CPC - 7
West
CPC - 62
Lib - 19
NDP - 14
Atlantic
Lib - 21
NDP - 6
CPC - 5
Some other notes from the poll:
Ontario is the most supportive of the "stimulus" package. As well, most people think said package will help the various provinces the most (Read: Ontarians are happy that Ontario is finally getting some cash)
Support for the parties, all parties, is soft right now. In the 2006 election we saw the polls not move and inch before the x-mas break. After it, the Tories suddenly had the lead, and again, the polls did not move, resulting in a CPC minority. The polls have been generally stagnant since Iggy has taken over, with the Liberals generally having a slight edge on the Tories, but the margins swinging back and forth between 130 and 110 seats for either party. My guess is that this will continue until the writ is dropped this fall, and will continue into the election, only truly settling in the final week or two of the campaign. It really is anyone's game at this point.
CPC - 120
Lib - 111
BQ - 47
NDP - 30
Ontario
Lib - 50
CPC - 46
NDP - 10
Quebec
BQ - 47
Lib - 21
CPC - 7
West
CPC - 62
Lib - 19
NDP - 14
Atlantic
Lib - 21
NDP - 6
CPC - 5
Some other notes from the poll:
Ontario is the most supportive of the "stimulus" package. As well, most people think said package will help the various provinces the most (Read: Ontarians are happy that Ontario is finally getting some cash)
Support for the parties, all parties, is soft right now. In the 2006 election we saw the polls not move and inch before the x-mas break. After it, the Tories suddenly had the lead, and again, the polls did not move, resulting in a CPC minority. The polls have been generally stagnant since Iggy has taken over, with the Liberals generally having a slight edge on the Tories, but the margins swinging back and forth between 130 and 110 seats for either party. My guess is that this will continue until the writ is dropped this fall, and will continue into the election, only truly settling in the final week or two of the campaign. It really is anyone's game at this point.
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Tories bounce back into first
The Tories and Liberals continue their struggle for first by fighting over a dozen or so seat in Ontario. Right now the Tories hold the edge. The Tories have also managed to bounce back in Quebec, and are on the way up in BC.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
One Poll Special - Greens with 2 seats
This is a projection based on a single poll, the most recent Ekos poll. Single poll projections are very problematic, but are interesting regardless. Here are the results I get:
Liberals back on top
The new Ekos poll has been added to the matrix.
Lib - 116
CPC - 114
BQ - 46
NDP - 32
Lib - 116
CPC - 114
BQ - 46
NDP - 32
Thursday Update
Not much going on this week that changes things radically from the projection posted a few days ago.
CPC-115
Lib-114
BQ-47
NDP-32
CPC-115
Lib-114
BQ-47
NDP-32
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Happy Canada Day
Happy Canada Day all. This country has somehow survived though 142 years.
Factoid: Did you know that there are also province days? Sure there is no "Ontario Day" or "Quebec Day" but each province celebrates a certain date.
Each province has a civic holiday on the first Monday or August. A civic Holiday is sort of a rich mans holiday, as those in salaried jobs tend to get it off while the hourly workers tend not to, nor do they tend to be compensated extra for their time worked on the holiday.
New Brunswick, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan each celebrate a province day (IE Saskatchewan Day) on this date. Alberta celebrates Heritage Day. Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island celebrate Natal Day. Ontario also celebrates, but each city makes up a name, for example, Simcoe Day in Toronto, or Colonel By day in Ottawa.
Beyond this; Manitoba celebrates a Louis Riel Day on the third monday in February. This a very "Manitoban" thing to celebrate. Newfoundland has an "Orangemen's Day" that is celebrated on the 12th of July, though without official status. Quebec celebrates a Fête nationale du Québec on the same day as St. John the Baptist Day.
So on what date were the various provinces founded?
Alberta and Saskatchewan were carved from the NWT on September 1, 1905. Manitoba was carved out of the NWT on July 15, 1870. The remainder of the provinces joined as former colonies.
New Brunswick was cut from Nova Scotia on August 16, 1784.
Ontario was cut from Quebec on December 26, 1791.
Unfortunately, the other provinces (Quebec, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, and British Columbia) were never cut from another colony, so to speak, and hence a "founding date" for any of them is difficult to ascertain.
Factoid: Did you know that there are also province days? Sure there is no "Ontario Day" or "Quebec Day" but each province celebrates a certain date.
Each province has a civic holiday on the first Monday or August. A civic Holiday is sort of a rich mans holiday, as those in salaried jobs tend to get it off while the hourly workers tend not to, nor do they tend to be compensated extra for their time worked on the holiday.
New Brunswick, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan each celebrate a province day (IE Saskatchewan Day) on this date. Alberta celebrates Heritage Day. Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island celebrate Natal Day. Ontario also celebrates, but each city makes up a name, for example, Simcoe Day in Toronto, or Colonel By day in Ottawa.
Beyond this; Manitoba celebrates a Louis Riel Day on the third monday in February. This a very "Manitoban" thing to celebrate. Newfoundland has an "Orangemen's Day" that is celebrated on the 12th of July, though without official status. Quebec celebrates a Fête nationale du Québec on the same day as St. John the Baptist Day.
So on what date were the various provinces founded?
Alberta and Saskatchewan were carved from the NWT on September 1, 1905. Manitoba was carved out of the NWT on July 15, 1870. The remainder of the provinces joined as former colonies.
New Brunswick was cut from Nova Scotia on August 16, 1784.
Ontario was cut from Quebec on December 26, 1791.
Unfortunately, the other provinces (Quebec, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, and British Columbia) were never cut from another colony, so to speak, and hence a "founding date" for any of them is difficult to ascertain.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
New Information
Much like the other major national projection sites, Trendlines.ca and Three Hundred Eight, we plan to maintain a "update schedule" from here on in. We will update our projection each Thursday. The only exception to this will be if polls come out on Fridays and/or over the Weekend, in which case (given there is more than one) we will update on Monday, and if needed, ditto our projection on Thrusday.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Tories vault into first place
There really is not much to say, beyond the shocking rise of the Tories. Nearly the entire rise comes from a single province - Ontario - where the Liberals have gone from a 10 point lead to being neck and neck with Harper's Conservatives. It remains to be seen if any of this will 'stick' by the end of the summer.
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