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Election around the corner.

So it looks like it's on. November 9th is still the day IIRC. What can you expect from niXtuff during the election?

We are hoping for daily polls. If we get that, we will update once a day. If not, we will update once a poll. Our update time will be between 11pm and 5am, thereby allowing all of the day's polls to have been registered.

We will be publishing a riding by riding guide, in the form of maps, showing the who should win each riding, along with a certainty - IE how sure we are that they will actually win.

We will continue our friendly rivalry with the math based Trendlines, the people based Election Prediction Project, new comer, Three Hundred Eight, and the inspiration for our own projections, Democratic Space

We wish them all luck.

Tories moving on up, slowly

CPC - 122 (33.69%)
Lib - 111 (31.14%)
BQ - 46 (9.25%)
NDP - 29 (16.24%)

Breakdown as follows

Newfoundland
Lib - 6
NDP - 1

Prince Edward Island
Lib - 4

Nova Scotia
NDP - 5
Lib - 5
CPC - 1

New Brunswick
Lib - 5
CPC - 4
NDP - 1

ATLANTIC SUBTOTAL
Lib - 20
NDP - 7
CPC - 5


British Columbia
CPC - 16
Lib - 11
NDP - 9

Alberta
CPC - 27
NDP - 1

Saskatchewan
CPC - 13
Lib - 1

Manitoba
CPC - 7
NDP - 4
Lib - 3

WEST SUBTOTAL
CPC - 64
Lib - 16
NDP - 15


Quebec
BQ - 46
Lib - 22
CPC - 7


Ontario
Lib - 53
CPC - 46
NDP - 7


Territories
CPC - 1
Lib - 1
NDP - 1



There is also news that Gary Doer has been appointed the ambassador to the US (once he is officially retired from his Manitoba NDP Premiership) In our judgement this is a strategic move on the part of Harper. First, and most visibly, he appears to be 'reaching across the aisle', but more importantly, he is eliminating a possible future Federal NDP leader from contention. As we've seen with Bob Rae and Ujjal Dosanjh, provincial NDP leaders can go on to become Grits as well. Doer is very popular in Manitoba. A bit more about doer.

Gary Doer became Manitoba NDP leader in 1988, on the eve of / during an election in the province. Internal polling shows the NDP as low as 6% province-wide. Upon becoming leader, polls showed then NDP at 19%, and 23% on Doer's election. Doer was only able to gain a fraction of a point above this on Election Day, finishing with 12 seats, to the Liberals 20 and the Tories 25. Whats remarkable about this was the NDP was in government throughout the election. Doer specifically chose NOT to be sworn in as Premier. Doer would remain third party leader until 1990 when he became Leader of the Opposition.

Finally, on October 5th 1999, more than a decade before he was first offered the job, Gary Doer became Premier of Manitoba. He has held on to the job and his majority government ever since. Even the most recent polls show a Majority could easily be won should be decide to run again. What's the secret to his success? Pragmatism. Quite often the provincial NDP in Saskatchewan will claim that they invented the pragmatic centre position in the 90s. The reality is that Gary Doer wrote the play book. The Federal NDP tried to use a similar 'moderate' strategy, but fell flat. Doer made it work, and it is still working.

Thus we get to the present. Gary Doer is a strong politician. Would he become Federal NDP leader there is a good chance that the NDP could flourish, especially in the west. Due to the "brand" names of parties, the NDP could beat the Liberals in Alberta and walk away with a handful of seats. Should Doer switch to the Liberals and become Leader, he could all but kill the NDP on the federal level. All of this, however is dependent on two things. First, Doer's ability to win a leadership race, something which is hard to organize for when your living in another country, and second, the will. My read is the will is not there. Harper see's Doer as someone who could beat him in a fair fight and wants to get him out of the way. Doer, at least from where I'm sitting, is tired of bring Leader, and wants to move on.

Where all of this ends up remains to be seen. My prediction is that Gary Doer will never lead any federal party.

Projection

With the new EKOS poll included.

CPC - 120
Lib - 112
BQ - 46
NDP - 30


The Liberals summer gains (opening up a lead in Ontario, and forcing the Tories down in Quebec) are starting to disappear. The only place the Liberals have really held on to their gains is in BC, where the Tories might be in some serious trouble.

Projection

CPC - 119
Lib - 114
BQ - 44
NDP - 31

Tories are starting to come back to life in Quebec.

Ramping back up

Here at niXtuff we are starting to ramp back up in time for the fall season.

I will be maintaining a Monday and Thursday update schedule where possible (IE when I have polls that make it worthwhile to do so)

Three new polls are out. One from Ekos, one from Decima, and one from Ipsos Reid (IR), who has gone back to their bourgeoisie attitude of information elitism and has prohibited the masses from gaining access to the details of their polls. Even if we had the money here at miXtuff to buy a subscription (and we dont, we are a free site in all respects) we could not use the numbers we find in our projections since the content is protected (IR has shut down popular canadian election websites before through the threat of lawsuit due to them using their polls) With this Soviet-Style block on polling data, I will not be able to add IR data to the regional breakdowns except where they so graciously decided to make that information public. I will, however, use whatever national numbers I can find to 'reverse engineer' the current projection to a state that matches IR polling, and then apply that.

I will update when full details from Decima come out (which hopefully will be within 24 hours)

Upcoming elections

Federal - November 9 2009
New Brunswick - September 27 2010
Yukon - unknown 2010
Manitoba - unknown 2011
Prince Edward Island - October 3 2011
Ontario - October 6 2011
Newfoundland - October 11 2011
Saskatchewan - November 7 2011
Alberta - unknown 2012
Quebec - unknown 2012
British Columbia - May of 2013
Nova Scotia - unknown 2013

Update

The Matrix has been updated, very strongly, with only the newest of polls. The result, however is that nothing much changes - polls remain stable. Next update may be in 2 weeks or so, again, I'm on an official vacation (even from work!)

Update

CPC - 122
Lib - 112
BQ - 44
NDP - 30

Yes I'm still around

I'll be taking a break of a few weeks for half of August. If I get a mass of new polls I'll post an update, but in general things are stable. The Tories and Liberals are swinging back and forth at around 105-125 seats, while the NDP and Bloc seem to be stuck where they are.

Update

CPC - 120
Lib - 110
BQ - 47
NDP - 31

No commentary

Updates

As you may have noticed, I did not update last thursday. Polls have slowed, and due to that, I plan to update every second thursday when there are very few polls.

Tories widen lead

A new Angus Reid poll has been added to the Matrix, resulting in a larger Tory lead.

CPC - 120
Lib - 111
BQ - 47
NDP - 30

Ontario
Lib - 50
CPC - 46
NDP - 10

Quebec
BQ - 47
Lib - 21
CPC - 7

West
CPC - 62
Lib - 19
NDP - 14

Atlantic
Lib - 21
NDP - 6
CPC - 5


Some other notes from the poll:
Ontario is the most supportive of the "stimulus" package. As well, most people think said package will help the various provinces the most (Read: Ontarians are happy that Ontario is finally getting some cash)

Support for the parties, all parties, is soft right now. In the 2006 election we saw the polls not move and inch before the x-mas break. After it, the Tories suddenly had the lead, and again, the polls did not move, resulting in a CPC minority. The polls have been generally stagnant since Iggy has taken over, with the Liberals generally having a slight edge on the Tories, but the margins swinging back and forth between 130 and 110 seats for either party. My guess is that this will continue until the writ is dropped this fall, and will continue into the election, only truly settling in the final week or two of the campaign. It really is anyone's game at this point.

Tories bounce back into first

The Tories and Liberals continue their struggle for first by fighting over a dozen or so seat in Ontario. Right now the Tories hold the edge. The Tories have also managed to bounce back in Quebec, and are on the way up in BC.

One Poll Special - Greens with 2 seats

This is a projection based on a single poll, the most recent Ekos poll. Single poll projections are very problematic, but are interesting regardless. Here are the results I get:

Liberals back on top

The new Ekos poll has been added to the matrix.

Lib - 116
CPC - 114
BQ - 46
NDP - 32

Thursday Update

Not much going on this week that changes things radically from the projection posted a few days ago.

CPC-115
Lib-114
BQ-47
NDP-32

Happy Canada Day

Happy Canada Day all. This country has somehow survived though 142 years.

Factoid: Did you know that there are also province days? Sure there is no "Ontario Day" or "Quebec Day" but each province celebrates a certain date.

Each province has a civic holiday on the first Monday or August. A civic Holiday is sort of a rich mans holiday, as those in salaried jobs tend to get it off while the hourly workers tend not to, nor do they tend to be compensated extra for their time worked on the holiday.

New Brunswick, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan each celebrate a province day (IE Saskatchewan Day) on this date. Alberta celebrates Heritage Day. Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island celebrate Natal Day. Ontario also celebrates, but each city makes up a name, for example, Simcoe Day in Toronto, or Colonel By day in Ottawa.

Beyond this; Manitoba celebrates a Louis Riel Day on the third monday in February. This a very "Manitoban" thing to celebrate. Newfoundland has an "Orangemen's Day" that is celebrated on the 12th of July, though without official status. Quebec celebrates a Fête nationale du Québec on the same day as St. John the Baptist Day.

So on what date were the various provinces founded?
Alberta and Saskatchewan were carved from the NWT on September 1, 1905. Manitoba was carved out of the NWT on July 15, 1870. The remainder of the provinces joined as former colonies.
New Brunswick was cut from Nova Scotia on August 16, 1784.
Ontario was cut from Quebec on December 26, 1791.
Unfortunately, the other provinces (Quebec, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, and British Columbia) were never cut from another colony, so to speak, and hence a "founding date" for any of them is difficult to ascertain.

New Information

Much like the other major national projection sites, Trendlines.ca and Three Hundred Eight, we plan to maintain a "update schedule" from here on in. We will update our projection each Thursday. The only exception to this will be if polls come out on Fridays and/or over the Weekend, in which case (given there is more than one) we will update on Monday, and if needed, ditto our projection on Thrusday.

Tories hold on to first

No commentary

Tories vault into first place

There really is not much to say, beyond the shocking rise of the Tories. Nearly the entire rise comes from a single province - Ontario - where the Liberals have gone from a 10 point lead to being neck and neck with Harper's Conservatives. It remains to be seen if any of this will 'stick' by the end of the summer.

Upcoming elections

Beyond the federal election we expect this fall (November 9th, or 16th) we also are tracking possible provincial elections.

New Brunswick went to the polls in 2006. They have since set fixed election dates, and will go again on 2010, Sep 27th to be exact. The PC's have a very good chance at taking the province back.

PEI went in the spring of 2007. PEI however has a recent history of going every 3.5 years, if they keep up with this, the fall of 2010 is possible, however if poll numbers sag, 2011 or even 2012 is possible. Currently, the Liberals look very strong.

The NWT may go in the next few years, but have no political parties, which sadly, makes it hard to track.

Newfoundland now has fixed election dates and will go in the fall of 2011. There is no evidence to suggest it will be anything but another blow out for the Tories.

Manitoba went in the spring of 2007, meaning the next election could be 'expected' in the spring of 2011. Gary Doer has been leader since forever (well, to be technically correct, since the early 1990s) There will likely be pressure on him to resign. The difficulty is that if he resigns any later than this fall, the new Premier may not have time to establish himself before the election. Doer has also shown no signs he intends to leave and might fight another election. If he stays I expect an election earlier than later, and if he goes the opposite, perhaps the fall of 2011.

Saskatchewan went in the fall of 2007 and could be expected to go in the fall of 2011. The Saskatchewan party won here, but due to vote distribution in the province, their seat margin does not match their vote margin in a way it normally would in another province. This could indicate that they might go again as early as the fall of 2010 or spring of 2011 if they are leading in the polls.

That means it will be a quiet summer. No minority governments in any province, and no federal election until November. You can, however, trust niXtuff to keep it's eyes open for any developments.

Projection Update

Now that we have an election date nearly set in stone (November 9th) it is easier for me to apply a trendline - which I've done. This is the results when I add in the recent polls to the matrix

Lib - 129
CPC - 104
BQ - 48
NDP - 27